How many seats will SP/Solidarity & PBP get in GE 2020?



ShoutingIsLeadership

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A quality filter is always good.
Would you like different voices from IFP, NP?
I disagree with them utterly, but this is a democracy and if that is who people want them to represent them, then I support that
 
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DJP

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I read a post from Limerick-based Making Waves poster in the last week or so saying that out of the 6 SP/Sol/PBP/Rise TD's Richard Boyd-Barrett and Paul Murphy look the most assured to be reelected and I got the impression that MW thinks that their other candidates won't be. Is that how it's looking?
 

DJP

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If Bernie Sanders doesn't look like he is going to get and doesn't in the end get the DP nomination in the U.S and barring another (whose possibility is very possible I think) worldwide recession/depression the far-left may well become highly irrelevant in Ireland for a long time if they do have a really bad election result in this GE to add to their very poor local elections results.

When I mention Bernie Sanders it is because the far-left in Ireland support him a lot (like they did with Corbyn when he was leader of the UK LP) although both Bernie Sanders and Corbyn are not I believe Trotskyists like the SP.

A worldwide recession/depression is a real possibility over the medium-term I think though if not before then and I am not including SF as being in the far-left.
 

ffc

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I think they will maintain their current numbers, at least. Might pick up a surprise.
 

DJP

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I think they will maintain their current numbers, at least. Might pick up a surprise.
You are being highly optimistic if you think that going by most of the commentators predictions and the last LE's and EE's.
 

ffc

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You are being highly optimistic if you think that going by most of the commentators predictions and the last LE's and EE's.
There's a big left vote out there. SF will do well and transfer to PBP.
 

DJP

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There's a big left vote out there. SF will do well and transfer to PBP.
PBP only have 3 TD's and according to what I've heard they wouldn't be doing too bad to come back with 2 as they are more than likely going to lose 1 in Dublin South Central.
 

Hitchcock

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I read a post from Limerick-based Making Waves poster in the last week or so saying that out of the 6 SP/Sol/PBP/Rise TD's Richard Boyd-Barrett and Paul Murphy look the most assured to be reelected and I got the impression that MW thinks that their other candidates won't be. Is that how it's looking?
In fairness, he was stating a fact that all Left candidates are in battle for their seats in part because of the swing to the Greens (although this won't be as significant as initially envisaged) and the rise in support for SF. In that context he argued that RBB and PM were the most likely to hold, he wasn't arguing that the others wouldn't but it would be tough.

RBB and PM will win, Mick Barry may hold on with SF transfers, Gino Kelly, I think is gone, Brid Smith may hold and I think Ruth Coppinger is gone, I though she'd hold on but she's gone and I think she knows it too, I was shocked at how poor/unprepared she was in the debate on Thursday.....
 

Hitchcock

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I think they will maintain their current numbers, at least. Might pick up a surprise.
Not a chance, there isn't a candidate outside the TDs who is remotely in the running, after 2016 Cian Prendiville in Limerick but he had to stand down as a Cllr and has since parted ways with the SP.
 

making waves

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I think Ruth Coppinger is gone, I though she'd hold on but she's gone and I think she knows it too, I was shocked at how poor/unprepared she was in the debate on Thursday.....
The debate on Thursday night was a hatchet job - the moderators specifically targeted Ruth Coppinger (asked very detailed and slanted questions) and, in contrast gave Ryan a free ride to say whatever he wanted. She did a decent job despite the approach of the 'moderators'. It will not determine the outcome in Dublin West.

Of PBP - I think Gino Kenny is in trouble because SF now have two sitting TDs standing - his vote will be impacted and he won't get transfers - RBB is the most likely to get re-elected but faces a challenge because of the potential impact of the GP and SF. I have said that I think there is only one seat between Joan Collins and Brid Smith and I think Smith will get it because she has a more organised and coherent group behind her.

Paul Murphy is not guaranteed - but is in the best position to hold his seat of the 6 outgoing Solidarity-PBP TDs - largely because of the base of support built by the Socialist Party over 40 years in the area.

Solidarity have a tough battle in both constituencies and that was always going to be the case in this election - Mick Barry's vote will be impacted by the rise in SF. The GP will get a vote but will not be in the mix. The (FF) Indo has a good local base but will struggle outside it. In 2016 and in the by-election SF got 20% of the vote - a quota - they are likely to have a significant surplus and hopefully this will transfer in some numbers to Mick Barry. In the local elections Solidarity also got a decent transfer from the GP, SDs and WP. FG are hated in the constituency and Barry has a decent chance of keeping his seat against FG. I am more confident that he will hold than I was at the start of the campaign.

Dublin West has always been a major challenge for the Socialist Party and Solidarity - right back to when Joe Higgins was first elected. Joe Higgins lost his seat in 2007 before winning it back in 2011. Over this time the constituency has been expanded to include more affluent areas. Ruth Coppinger faced a major challenge holding the seat in 2016 - but succeeded (SF should have taken Burton's seat - but ****ed-up their campaign). Now SF are likely to have a surplus - probably not as much as in other areas. FF will hold - and it will be a major embarrassment for Varadkar - but he should hold. The last seat is between Solidarity and the Greens. O'Gorman has polled in the 4-5% region since 2007. He got a big vote in the locals (almost trebling it) - in part because Chambers was not a candidate (unlike in this election) - the SF voted halved - and he has been eating into the FG vote since. O'Gorman has the advantage - Burton is gone and he likely will get some of that - he has some FG vote - but will lose votes to Chambers - he will have to nearly treble his 2016 vote to get in the mix, but he likely will be more transfer friendly. Like in CNC, Solidarity is being impacted in the traditional council estates by the rise in SF - but is picking up some support in the newer estates. It may not be enough - and Ruth Coppinger will need to be ahead of O'Gorman before transfers come into play. I am somewhat more confident that she will hold her seat than I was three weeks ago - but it will be a really good result for Solidarity if she does hold it.

As you point out - the wider left is also impacted - I think Pringle and Connolly are gone - I also think Collins will lose (with Smith taking the seat) - Mulligan won't win in Fingal (and it is questionable how left he is). Lyons is in the mix n DBN but I don't think he will win because of SF - and Daly, Broughan and O'Sullivan are already gone.

As I have said before - elections are a snap-shot of mood on a particular day. SF are the beneficiaries of the mood in this election (the GP have plateaued and will need transfers to win seats). The swing to SF is very much an anti-FFG mood rather than a pro-SF surge - and as such is weak in terms of coherence - but despite the best efforts of the media - I don't think the manufactured crises they have been touting all week will impact on their vote. After that I think a FF/SF coalition (likely with some others - GP, SD, if there are any LP) is the most likely outcome - neither FF or FG want another election - it would only benefit SF at their expense.
 

Hitchcock

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The debate on Thursday night was a hatchet job - the moderators specifically targeted Ruth Coppinger (asked very detailed and slanted questions) and, in contrast gave Ryan a free ride to say whatever he wanted. She did a decent job despite the approach of the 'moderators'. It will not determine the outcome in Dublin West.

Of PBP - I think Gino Kenny is in trouble because SF now have two sitting TDs standing - his vote will be impacted and he won't get transfers - RBB is the most likely to get re-elected but faces a challenge because of the potential impact of the GP and SF. I have said that I think there is only one seat between Joan Collins and Brid Smith and I think Smith will get it because she has a more organised and coherent group behind her.

Paul Murphy is not guaranteed - but is in the best position to hold his seat of the 6 outgoing Solidarity-PBP TDs - largely because of the base of support built by the Socialist Party over 40 years in the area.

Solidarity have a tough battle in both constituencies and that was always going to be the case in this election - Mick Barry's vote will be impacted by the rise in SF. The GP will get a vote but will not be in the mix. The (FF) Indo has a good local base but will struggle outside it. In 2016 and in the by-election SF got 20% of the vote - a quota - they are likely to have a significant surplus and hopefully this will transfer in some numbers to Mick Barry. In the local elections Solidarity also got a decent transfer from the GP, SDs and WP. FG are hated in the constituency and Barry has a decent chance of keeping his seat against FG. I am more confident that he will hold than I was at the start of the campaign.

Dublin West has always been a major challenge for the Socialist Party and Solidarity - right back to when Joe Higgins was first elected. Joe Higgins lost his seat in 2007 before winning it back in 2011. Over this time the constituency has been expanded to include more affluent areas. Ruth Coppinger faced a major challenge holding the seat in 2016 - but succeeded (SF should have taken Burton's seat - but ****ed-up their campaign). Now SF are likely to have a surplus - probably not as much as in other areas. FF will hold - and it will be a major embarrassment for Varadkar - but he should hold. The last seat is between Solidarity and the Greens. O'Gorman has polled in the 4-5% region since 2007. He got a big vote in the locals (almost trebling it) - in part because Chambers was not a candidate (unlike in this election) - the SF voted halved - and he has been eating into the FG vote since. O'Gorman has the advantage - Burton is gone and he likely will get some of that - he has some FG vote - but will lose votes to Chambers - he will have to nearly treble his 2016 vote to get in the mix, but he likely will be more transfer friendly. Like in CNC, Solidarity is being impacted in the traditional council estates by the rise in SF - but is picking up some support in the newer estates. It may not be enough - and Ruth Coppinger will need to be ahead of O'Gorman before transfers come into play. I am somewhat more confident that she will hold her seat than I was three weeks ago - but it will be a really good result for Solidarity if she does hold it.

As you point out - the wider left is also impacted - I think Pringle and Connolly are gone - I also think Collins will lose (with Smith taking the seat) - Mulligan won't win in Fingal (and it is questionable how left he is). Lyons is in the mix n DBN but I don't think he will win because of SF - and Daly, Broughan and O'Sullivan are already gone.

As I have said before - elections are a snap-shot of mood on a particular day. SF are the beneficiaries of the mood in this election (the GP have plateaued and will need transfers to win seats). The swing to SF is very much an anti-FFG mood rather than a pro-SF surge - and as such is weak in terms of coherence - but despite the best efforts of the media - I don't think the manufactured crises they have been touting all week will impact on their vote. After that I think a FF/SF coalition (likely with some others - GP, SD, if there are any LP) is the most likely outcome - neither FF or FG want another election - it would only benefit SF at their expense.
The debate on Thursday night was a hatchet job - the moderators specifically targeted Ruth Coppinger (asked very detailed and slanted questions) and, in contrast gave Ryan a free ride to say whatever he wanted. She did a decent job despite the approach of the 'moderators'. It will not determine the outcome in Dublin West.
No, I'm not having it MW, I'm as aware as you that the role the media can play but Thursday wasn't a hatchet job at all...in fact the candidates were given time to answer points, Ruth had a platform to explain the nationalisation of the construction industry for example and resorted to chip shops, she couldn't go beyond the slogan, it was a poor performance by her and I think despite your protestation you know it. Why would there be a hatchet job against Ruth but not against RBB or MB. In this election left are broadly irrelevant from the media's perspective, note the jibe of Fionnan Sheenhan about Mick Barry after the Virgin debate.

Of course it won't determine DW, the point I was making was about her demeanour and confidence.

Of PBP - I think Gino Kenny is in trouble because SF now have two sitting TDs standing - his vote will be impacted and he won't get transfers - RBB is the most likely to get re-elected but faces a challenge because of the potential impact of the GP and SF. I have said that I think there is only one seat between Joan Collins and Brid Smith and I think Smith will get it because she has a more organised and coherent group behind her.
GK is in trouble, RBB will be fine. Joan and Brid may hold on - Ardagh will take Byrne out. I think Joan will benefit more from SF transfers than PBPA but you're correct about the better organsiation of Smith and she has a higher national profile and she's actively working to undermine Joan in the constituency....

Paul Murphy is not guaranteed - but is in the best position to hold his seat of the 6 outgoing Solidarity-PBP TDs - largely because of the base of support built by the Socialist Party over 40 years in the area.
He's in a decent position but as we've seen over the years the SP have struggled to hold council seats, Mick Murphy won twice and lost twice...it's not a straight forward constituency. Sandra Fay standing doesn't help the situation.

As you point out - the wider left is also impacted - I think Pringle and Connolly are gone
Pringle is probably gone but still hopeful for Connolly, pity the 'left' are standing against her...

Mulligan won't win in Fingal (and it is questionable how left he is).
No one suggested he will, too early for him, as for your 'left' jibe he wouldn't meet your standards but then no one outside the SP does, that said he's as left as some of the people you've put for election under your various banners.

Lyons is in the mix n DBN but I don't think he will win because of SF
And Michael O'Brien....but 2% of the national vote for SOL/PBPA is more important that Lyons potentially winning I suppose.

Over this time the constituency has been expanded to include more affluent areas.
Nonsense. A small portion of the Navan road is not natural SF territory either, the main growth in DW has been on the Meath side and it's open territory for the left, the question for the SP is why RC/SP hasn't been able to benefit from it illustrated by in ex Cllr Matt Waine failing to win a seat in Ongar.

I am somewhat more confident that she will hold her seat than I was three weeks ago - but it will be a really good result for Solidarity if she does hold it.
That's a surprising statement, she is now more vulnerable than at any point in the campaign, reflected in the huge resources the party has put in there in recent weeks. She may hold off SF or the Greens it's an open question but I think it's highly, highly unlikely.
 
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wombat

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I'm surprised that RBB is viewed as a certainty to hold his seat, he was lucky to hold in 2016 and PBP did not have a good LE. If SF do well, they will take votes from him.
 

Hitchcock

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I'm surprised that RBB is viewed as a certainty to hold his seat, he was lucky to hold in 2016 and PBP did not have a good LE. If SF do well, they will take votes from him.
I don't think he's a certainty but he's had a good media campaign, he was by some distance the best rep of his bloc in the media, he'll pick up disaffected FG votes, he's also pull big transfers from the Greens (assuming a surplus) ahead of the shinners.
 

wombat

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he'll pick up disaffected FG votes
They are far more likely to vote Green. If SF are ahead on the 1st count, he's more likely to go out first.
 

mangaire2

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The debate on Thursday night was a hatchet job - the moderators specifically targeted Ruth Coppinger
geez - you're beginning to sound like a 'whinging Shinner' now.
nah - neither the media nor FG/FF are concerned about whether your Looney Lefties get 3,4 or 5 seats, or whatever.
it's the Shinners they're out to get.

I watched the debate between Dobbo & Boyd Barret - 'twas like a fireside chat.
I didn't see him with Varadker,
but to be fair to him, he had Martin squirming,
& it wasn't for want of trying, that he failed to land many real punches on Mary Lou.
if SF were badly damaged in the last debate, it was Miriam O'Callaghan & McCullagh who caused the damage - the expected onslaught from Varadker & Martin proved to be a damp squib.
certainly all of the enemies of SF were delighted with it anyway.
we'lll never know for sure how much damage it caused SF, or if it damaged them at all.
 

mangaire2

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Pringle is probably gone but still hopeful for Connolly, pity the 'left' are standing against her...
if the Connolly you refer is the Galway West lady - I wouldn't lump her in with the Looney Lefties.
left-wing yes, but comes across as decent & reasonable - in no way comparable to Coppinger.
I would hope that she retains her seat.
 


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