How Many Seats Would The DUP Win In A United Ireland?

TruthInTheNews

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There was a discussion last night among senior politicians about the potential for coalition between FG and Sinn Fein. One of the Fine Gaelers joked that the DUP would be a better fit for FG in a United Ireland. That set me wondering. Just how many seats would the DUP win in a United Ireland if the electoral system that exists in the South were extended to the North?

Has anyone crunched the numbers on this?
 


Sync

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As many as if they stood in England or Scotland.
 

Socratus O' Pericles

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1 each in Montenotte and Dun Laoghaire East.
 
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Itsalaugh

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The revised DE post reunification might have a few more seats added. Say 200 TDs. Elecorate of north 1.3 million and south 3.2 million so a 5 seater will have an electorate of around 110,000. 55 seats in the North, I'd say they'd take 15-17 in the first unified GE, vote for unionism diluted when they see how the English and Queen have abandoned them and over a generatiion that would fall to 7/8 seats. They'd be the only Orange/Protestant party as moderate protestants would be voting left, Alliance, Labour, FG. The SDLP Vite will split. Whichever Southern party is to the fore pushing reunification will capture some of the SF vote.
 

Toland

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The revised DE post reunification might have a few more seats added. Say 200 TDs. Elecorate of north 1.3 million and south 3.2 million so a 5 seater will have an electorate of around 110,000. 55 seats in the North, I'd say they'd take 15-17 in the first unified GE, vote for unionism diluted when they see how the English and Queen have abandoned them and over a generatiion that would fall to 7/8 seats. They'd be the only Orange/Protestant party as moderate protestants would be voting left, Alliance, Labour, FG. The SDLP Vite will split. Whichever Southern party is to the fore pushing reunification will capture some of the SF vote.
I doubt they'd exist in their present form if there was a united Ireland in anything more than name.
 

TruthInTheNews

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The revised DE post reunification might have a few more seats added. Say 200 TDs. Elecorate of north 1.3 million and south 3.2 million so a 5 seater will have an electorate of around 110,000. 55 seats in the North, I'd say they'd take 15-17 in the first unified GE, vote for unionism diluted when they see how the English and Queen have abandoned them and over a generatiion that would fall to 7/8 seats. They'd be the only Orange/Protestant party as moderate protestants would be voting left, Alliance, Labour, FG. The SDLP Vite will split. Whichever Southern party is to the fore pushing reunification will capture some of the SF vote.
That is probably bang on. The figure suggested at the meeting was 14 which could put them in a three way right of center coalition. FG + DUP + others. The problem is that the assimilation of NI into the Republic would push the center of gravity of Irish politics even further to the left which would make a three way right wing coalition unlikely.
 

hollandia

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The revised DE post reunification might have a few more seats added. Say 200 TDs. Elecorate of north 1.3 million and south 3.2 million so a 5 seater will have an electorate of around 110,000. 55 seats in the North, I'd say they'd take 15-17 in the first unified GE, vote for unionism diluted when they see how the English and Queen have abandoned them and over a generatiion that would fall to 7/8 seats. They'd be the only Orange/Protestant party as moderate protestants would be voting left, Alliance, Labour, FG. The SDLP Vite will split. Whichever Southern party is to the fore pushing reunification will capture some of the SF vote.
With a consitiutional requirement for one TD per 30,000 people it would likely pan out as NI given a Dail of 220 seats. The DUP could expect to return 19-20 TD all things being equal. SF would also return 19-20 TDS, which would give them a bloc in DE of around 45-50 (they'd get a "unity" bounce in the south). On current polling figures FG could expect to t return 65-70 TDs (as they have no presence in the north), which would make a FG SF arrangement post UI the only viable stable arrangement - i.e. that take them over the magical 110 TD figure for a majority.
 

Henry94.

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You would wonder how many of our parties would continue to exist in their present form in the long term. FF and FG could merge and extend into the north. Sinn Fein would have no reason to exist and would transforming into an all-Ireland Social Democratic party drawing in the rest of the centre left. I'd imagine a party to represent unionists would exist for a generation or two.
 

JimmyFoley

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I doubt they'd exist in their present form if there was a united Ireland in anything more than name.
Exactly. Nor would there be a UUP, Alliance etc.

It's pointless speculation, as pointless as wondering what your life would be like if you had been born into a different family.
 

Levellers

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The first election would see them get about twelve in the extreme north east. After that their irrelevance would become obvious and they would fade away.
 

ruserious

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I can't see the DUP surviving a United Ireland. I could see a minority party for people of British culture/heritage in the North surviving.
 

Toland

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The DUP could merge with FG to form Democratic Fine Gael!
I doubt that too. There might be a relatively short-lived united unionist party of some sort, but I'd say that the entire concept of unionism would wither away much as it did in the south in the twenties -- though it might take a little longer.
 

Plebian

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There was a discussion last night among senior politicians about the potential for coalition between FG and Sinn Fein. One of the Fine Gaelers joked that the DUP would be a better fit for FG in a United Ireland. That set me wondering. Just how many seats would the DUP win in a United Ireland if the electoral system that exists in the South were extended to the North?

Has anyone crunched the numbers on this?
It would depend on how many seats were available. They took 225,000 in the last Assembly Elections. A UI would have an electoral turnout of approximately 2.9 million . That would give the DUP a vote share of 7.75%.That would give them about 1/12-1/13 of all the seats, but because their vote would be concentrated they'd probably have a seat bonus of 10-15% pushing them up to approximately 9% of all the seats in a UI. In the current Dail 9% of the 158 seats would equal 14-15 seats.
 

flavirostris

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Probably 40-50 in a hypothetical UI Dail.

They would be effective kingmakers in any government.
 

Itsalaugh

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With a consitiutional requirement for one TD per 30,000 people it would likely pan out as NI given a Dail of 220 seats. The DUP could expect to return 19-20 TD all things being equal. SF would also return 19-20 TDS, which would give them a bloc in DE of around 45-50 (they'd get a "unity" bounce in the south). On current polling figures FG could expect to t return 65-70 TDs (as they have no presence in the north), which would make a FG SF arrangement post UI the only viable stable arrangement - i.e. that take them over the magical 110 TD figure for a majority.
Dublin is pursuing an ambitious expansionist economic policy with the ESRI talking of a million population increase in a generation. That constitutional requirement will be tweaked skywards. I think 200 is a fair figure for a population not that much more than 7 million. Incidentally this population expansion will be concentrated on Dublin and Mayo/Kerry/Roscommon probably even Limerick will lose seats. Absorbing the North would assist the areas experiencing stagnation to have greater clout opposing centralisation.
 

blinding

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They are so identical to FF that it would be hard to differentiate , so you might as well do a Dup/FF Combo Sandwich stuffed in a brown paper bag .
 

Mysterion

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A united Ireland would probably add 55-60 seats to Dáil Éireann...
So roughly 210-220 seats in total would be the size of UI Dáil Éireann...

Going by percentages of the last assembly election the DUP received just shy of 33% of the 90 seats at Stormont...

Likewise SF got a little less overall percentage than the DUP...

If you apply those percentages, the DUP would probably get 17-22 seats in a UI Dáil Éireann...

SF would gain an extra 15-20 seats in a new Dáil Éireann...
No wonder Mehole is worried about a UI...

Are you sure that Blueshirt was joking... Quite worrying if FG align themselves to the DUP...
 

Fr Peter McWhinger

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Watching Arlene over the last 6 weeks I was wondering what kind of Táiniste she would make.

If a United Ireland was to come about in say 10 years time or sooner it might be worth while for Unionists to negotiate early for an agreed united Ireland rather than one delivered at the point of a ballot box: "A Hard United Ireland" as it were.

The Soft United Ireland might be based on a National List for 30% of Dail Seats and the rest from 3 seater constituencies.
 


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