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How much longer will Kenny last?

CJH

Active member
Joined
Feb 24, 2004
Messages
214
People seeing the title of this might assume this is a trolling thread, but I'm completely serious. I believe that the departure of Bertie and his replacement with a new Taoiseach and leader of Fianna Fail will ultimately result in Fine Gael removing Enda Kenny as their leader.

Kenny was elected as a sort of FG version of Bertie, after the debacle of the Noonan years. He was portrayed as an everyman, the sort of guy you would like to have a pint with in the pub. This was fair enough in comparison with FF's leader. With the growing significance of the Tribunal issues, Kenny was able to attack Ahern and the government on this issue, and leave to the side attempts to better the government on policy, something with which he has always struggled.

However, politics is about to get a lot more hard edged. It's reasonable to assume that Cowen will be the new leader. We've already seen that in the Dail he has destroyed Kenny without even breaking sweat. Apparently after his recent performance, a number of FG TDs were uneasy about how Kenny would perform against Cowen when Bertie was gone. We're about to find out.

I don't think Enda will be able to cut it. It will become increasingly clear that he is unable to handle Cowen's aggressiveness, sharpness and attention to detail in terms of policy. He is old compared to Cowen, and has already had one election in which to prove himself. I believe that over the coming months there will be a groundswell of feeling with FG favouring the sharpness of Richard Bruton or the debating strength of Brian Hayes. There is a lot of affection and respect for Kenny within FG - I don't believe he will be shafted (though when you conside how they treated John Bruton, you never know). I think he will be given a chance to go with dignity within plenty of time of the next election.

But I think that ultimately, Bertie's departure will seal Enda's fate.
 


retep

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Joined
May 25, 2007
Messages
1,730
I think the main thing Enda Kenny had in his favour was the growing unpopularity of Bertie and discontent with the croneyism of his long standing cabinet.

If, as hoped or expected, Cowen (or whoever), does a decent clean out I think FF's popularity will soar again to the detriment of FG and I could see Cowen calling a snap election within a year when the polls deem it favourable, which would herald the end of Enda.
 

unaligned

Member
Joined
Jun 7, 2007
Messages
11
I sort of agree that in an odd sort of way, Ahern's departure will bring Kenny's perceived weaknesses into sharper focus. If there was a General Election around the corner then they would be wise to keep Kenny where he is as I suspect that Cowen will appeal to the core Fianna Fail constituency and not much else.

But because we are four years out from an election, I imagine the prospect of Kenny being slapped around by Cowen for the next four years isn't mightily appealing. That said, I don't think there is much of an appetite to oust Kenny simply because there is no obvious successor. Varadkar is a loose cannon, Hayes is percieved as too smarmy and Bruton doesn't seem to want the job and doesn't represent much of a new departure in any case.
 

Maximus

Member
Joined
Sep 19, 2005
Messages
58
CJH said:
People seeing the title of this might assume this is a trolling thread, but I'm completely serious. I believe that the departure of Bertie and his replacement with a new Taoiseach and leader of Fianna Fail will ultimately result in Fine Gael removing Enda Kenny as their leader.

Kenny was elected as a sort of FG version of Bertie, after the debacle of the Noonan years. He was portrayed as an everyman, the sort of guy you would like to have a pint with in the pub. This was fair enough in comparison with FF's leader. With the growing significance of the Tribunal issues, Kenny was able to attack Ahern and the government on this issue, and leave to the side attempts to better the government on policy, something with which he has always struggled.

However, politics is about to get a lot more hard edged. It's reasonable to assume that Cowen will be the new leader. We've already seen that in the Dail he has destroyed Kenny without even breaking sweat. Apparently after his recent performance, a number of FG TDs were uneasy about how Kenny would perform against Cowen when Bertie was gone. We're about to find out.

I don't think Enda will be able to cut it. It will become increasingly clear that he is unable to handle Cowen's aggressiveness, sharpness and attention to detail in terms of policy. He is old compared to Cowen, and has already had one election in which to prove himself. I believe that over the coming months there will be a groundswell of feeling with FG favouring the sharpness of Richard Bruton or the debating strength of Brian Hayes. There is a lot of affection and respect for Kenny within FG - I don't believe he will be shafted (though when you conside how they treated John Bruton, you never know). I think he will be given a chance to go with dignity within plenty of time of the next election.

But I think that ultimately, Bertie's departure will seal Enda's fate.
Lets hope they dont do anything too rash. Kenny is the best of the bunch over there. Would hate to see them change horses mid-tilt.
 

MookieBaylock

Well-known member
Joined
May 5, 2007
Messages
403
The next FG leader is all but decided...

and Kenny will not be shafted - trust me on that
 

Fr. Hank Tree

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Joined
Feb 1, 2007
Messages
5,845
retep said:
If, as hoped or expected, Cowen (or whoever), does a decent clean out I think FF's popularity will soar again to the detriment of FG and I could see Cowen calling a snap election within a year when the polls deem it favourable, which would herald the end of Enda.
:roll:

Bring on Brian Cowen.

Probably the most overrated mnister in the history of the state.
 

Keith-M

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Joined
Jul 24, 2007
Messages
15,668
Website
www.allkindsofeverything.ie
Kenny's biggest (only?) selling point was that he would be a change of Taoiseach. Now FF have trumpted him on that, it's hard to see him lasting out the year unless the creeping inertia which seems to have strangled FG in recent years means that no one can be bothered to move against him.
 

badboy2

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 30, 2007
Messages
949
I wouldn't trust you to beat a one leged man in an arse kicking competition, but Kenny is safe as houses.

He has persued a strategy that has seen a supposedly invincible Teflon coated Taoiseach chucked out in disgrace.

Oh what fun we will have now as each contender for the leadership of FF will be subjected to a little bit of financial scrutiny.
 

Whatuwant2007

Member
Joined
May 10, 2007
Messages
27
i think FG will have to rethink Kenny,... he wont be able to stand up to Cowen...

hard to think of anyone except maybe Bruton
 

ballot stuffer

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Joined
May 21, 2007
Messages
1,504
I was very disappointed with Kennys performance today. Of all days, he saved it until today to tear into the already fatally wounded Bertie. Perhaps he was anticipating his big show in the Dail.

Bertie provided an open goal for Kenny and Kenny still managed to score an own goal.
 

Defeated Romanticist

Active member
Joined
Apr 12, 2007
Messages
277
August 2009, after FG get a bloody nose in the locals.
 

MookieBaylock

Well-known member
Joined
May 5, 2007
Messages
403
Defeated Romanticist said:
August 2009, after FG get a bloody nose in the locals.
You just keep dreaming those dreams.

You've jumped from one, er, dying wasp onto another dying cow.
 
G

Guest

There is no obvious successor. He should be safe for the next couple of years until the new guys bed down. Reilly and Hayes have been impressive. Bruton is a bit too posh and a bit too wimpy.

In any event one would expect that FG will leave the crystal balls aside for the moment and wait to see how things pan out with Kenny -v- Cowen. These things don't always go the way you expect and it is doubtful whether aggressive plays well coming from a Taoiseach.

Also, whereas I don't think Kenny can match Cowen pound for pound, I don't think the public will see it as a head to head between the leaders next time around. The collective performance of the FG front bench over the next few years will be a lot more important than the performance of their leader. If they can't keep their nerve and concentrate on that then it is a bad state of affairs.
 

Rocky

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 9, 2004
Messages
8,505
CJH said:
People seeing the title of this might assume this is a trolling thread, but I'm completely serious. I believe that the departure of Bertie and his replacement with a new Taoiseach and leader of Fianna Fail will ultimately result in Fine Gael removing Enda Kenny as their leader.

Kenny was elected as a sort of FG version of Bertie, after the debacle of the Noonan years. He was portrayed as an everyman, the sort of guy you would like to have a pint with in the pub. This was fair enough in comparison with FF's leader. With the growing significance of the Tribunal issues, Kenny was able to attack Ahern and the government on this issue, and leave to the side attempts to better the government on policy, something with which he has always struggled.

However, politics is about to get a lot more hard edged. It's reasonable to assume that Cowen will be the new leader. We've already seen that in the Dail he has destroyed Kenny without even breaking sweat. Apparently after his recent performance, a number of FG TDs were uneasy about how Kenny would perform against Cowen when Bertie was gone. We're about to find out.

I don't think Enda will be able to cut it. It will become increasingly clear that he is unable to handle Cowen's aggressiveness, sharpness and attention to detail in terms of policy. He is old compared to Cowen, and has already had one election in which to prove himself. I believe that over the coming months there will be a groundswell of feeling with FG favouring the sharpness of Richard Bruton or the debating strength of Brian Hayes. There is a lot of affection and respect for Kenny within FG - I don't believe he will be shafted (though when you conside how they treated John Bruton, you never know). I think he will be given a chance to go with dignity within plenty of time of the next election.

But I think that ultimately, Bertie's departure will seal Enda's fate.
I think Enda Kenny could do very well against Cowen and I think part of this is we have completely opposite opinions of Cowen. To me Cowen comes across as Bullish, arrogant and tp an extent a good debater. In many ways he is similar to Noonan and McDowell who had the same nature. Now both of them were good and well respected as leading figures in their parties. However once they became leader, the people’s opinion of them collapsed. I think people like a fighter, although not as leader of a party and not as Taoiseach. The prefer someone they like and someone who comes across as more of a Statesman as Taoiseach. Enda Kenny is more of a people’s person like Ahern and in the same way Ahern hammered Noonan, even though Noonan was a better debater, I think Kenny will do well against Cowen. It’s difficult to know and we’ll have to see, but I wouldn’t come close to writing off Enda now.
 


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