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How much of Ireland's debt are we pretending is off-the-books?


Congalltee

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According to the NTMA, IRELAND'S national debt was 75.2bn at December, 2009 (up from 50bn the year before).

Since then we will have added half of a 20billion structural deficit and Anglo irish 24bn as well as a couple of billion in bank recapitalisations?

My questions:
1. What is ireland's official debt today?
2. What real debt rate are the markets using?
3. Do the markets count the debts of semi-states, local authorities, special purpose vehicles, potential nama losses and the ultimate cost of the guaranteed banks? What are there figures?
4. By how much will the cost of borrowing rise if we renew the bank guarantee?
5. Do our political class really think that keeping debt off the books, fool the markets?
 

kerdasi amaq

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Where do the twits, who are borrowing that money , think that Ireland is going to get the funds to repay those borrowings?
 
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FakeViking

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Where do the twits, who are borrowing that money , think that they are going to get the funds to repay those borrowings?
But that's the genius of it. The twits borrowing it won't have to repay it! Their policical rivals will have to! It's the most cynical way to do things, but they know they've lost the next GE, they're laying the groundwork for the one after that, when FG/Lab will be hated much more than FF are now.
 

TODevastated

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Where do the twits, who are borrowing that money , think that Ireland is going to get the funds to repay those borrowings?
they are hoping that it will happen in the same way the debt was paid off in the 80s

if I recall correctly the FG/Lab govt of 82 to 87 doubled the national debt and Mac the Knife came in after the 87 election and cut everything in sight which is credited in laying the foundation for the.....boom
 

Furze

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they are hoping that it will happen in the same way the debt was paid off in the 80s

if I recall correctly the FG/Lab govt of 82 to 87 doubled the national debt and Mac the Knife came in after the 87 election and cut everything in sight which is credited in laying the foundation for the.....boom
How much of that debt was private corporate debt - some PMPA and ICI maybe.
Now the toxic debt is being heaped on us and in gratitude we should give our captains of industry our remaining state assets to profit by.
Oh and in the future, our captains of industry will need those assets controlled by NAMA at the then market value with a suitable mark-down.
 

kerdasi amaq

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I think the twits have outsmarted themselves. The Irish economy of the future simply will not generate the revenue to pay off those debts, let alone the interest.

P.S. The Irish People will repudiate the debt the politicians are contracting by emigrating. Though, I suppose, Fianna Fáil won't care; as it is the foundation stone of their electoral success.
 

HarshBuzz

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don't forget the NAMA effect



 

A view from England

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But that's the genius of it. The twits borrowing it won't have to repay it! Their policical rivals will have to! It's the most cynical way to do things, but they know they've lost the next GE, they're laying the groundwork for the one after that, when FG/Lab will be hated much more than FF are now.
Labour did the same in the UK. A scorched earth policy to in an attempt to ensure that any incomming Government would have to take extreme action in order to sort out the mess.
 

Libero

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Labour did the same in the UK. A scorched earth policy to in an attempt to ensure that any incomming Government would have to take extreme action in order to sort out the mess.
Didn't William Hague describe Labour's strategy as "poisoning the well"?

So far as I can tell, the Irish media has lagged behind its English counterparts in describing the simple numbers game of the fiscal situation. Too many commentators and opinion formers have bought into the simplistic, dangerous idea that so long as the state can keep access to the sovereign debt markets, all is relatively well.

It doesn't help that the UK has excellent credible think-tanks like the IFS, and nothing like our green jersey agenda and the character assassination of critical voices such as academics.
 

Congalltee

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According to the NTMA, IRELAND'S national debt was 75.2bn at December, 2009 (up from 50bn the year before).

Since then we will have added half of a 20billion structural deficit and Anglo irish 24bn as well as a couple of billion in bank recapitalisations?

My questions:
1. What is ireland's official debt today?
2. What real debt rate are the markets using?
3. Do the markets count the debts of semi-states, local authorities, special purpose vehicles, potential nama losses and the ultimate cost of the guaranteed banks? What are there figures?
4. By how much will the cost of borrowing rise if we renew the bank guarantee?
5. Do our political class really think that keeping debt off the books, fool the markets?
2012 is the year in which a significant amount of our sovereign bonds mature (it is also the time when I understand AIB and BoI bonds nature also).
So what will be Ireland's debt in 2012?
Current 84 bn
Current anglo 24bn
Structural deficit for 2010 - 10bn
Ditto 2011 - 22bn
Ditto 2012 - 24bn
Further bank recaps - 7bn?
Semi state debts - 1bn?
public sector Pension - 5bn?
Crystallised nama losses - 5bn?
Extra cost of borrowing - 10bn?

These figures are as rough as sandpaper (correction would be appreciated) but total over 170bn which would make emigration for anyone under 60 rational if not economicaly mandatory.

Are we that doomed?
 
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Congalltee

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Another question: if Ireland's official debt is 85bn and our tax receipts are below 35bn, while outgoing are 55bn plus: at what level of debt makes the servicing of it unmanageable?
 

HarshBuzz

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Another question: if Ireland's official debt is 85bn and our tax receipts are below 35bn, while outgoing are 55bn plus: at what level of debt makes the servicing of it unmanageable?
that is the 64,000 dollar question

a 90% debt\GDP ratio is commonly considered to be the tipping point where the debt acts as a drag on the long-term growth prospects of the economy

we'll blow through this level some time in 2011.
 

slumdog1971

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that is the 64,000 dollar question

a 90% debt\GDP ratio is commonly considered to be the tipping point where the debt acts as a drag on the long-term growth prospects of the economy

we'll blow through this level some time in 2011.
HB, Singapore, France, Italy, Belgium and a few more have all consistently ran Debt to GDP ratios in excess of 100 %

They have all survived and prospered.

You need to cool the jets.
 

Congalltee

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that is the 64,000 dollar question

a 90% debt\GDP ratio is commonly considered to be the tipping point where the debt acts as a drag on the long-term growth prospects of the economy

we'll blow through this level some time in 2011.
But is GDP figure not ignored when it comes to Ireland and for normal guidelines apply when the level of external debt is over 8 times GDP?
Including Anglo means we are are 120an euro in debt when our GDP is somewhere around 170bn euro. That does not appear to leave much wiggle room.
 

HarshBuzz

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But is GDP figure not ignored when it comes to Ireland and for normal guidelines apply when the level of external debt is over 8 times GDP?
Including Anglo means we are are 120an euro in debt when our GDP is somewhere around 170bn euro. That does not appear to leave much wiggle room.
especially when you are throwing another 20bn in the pile every year
 

HarshBuzz

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HB, Singapore, France, Italy, Belgium and a few more have all consistently ran Debt to GDP ratios in excess of 100 %

They have all survived and prospered.

You need to cool the jets.
remind me again of what you said yesterday about 'tapping the stabilisation fund' :D

you have no credibility when it comes to this stuff, zero
 

atlantic

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Jan 25, 2008
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649
It's called kicking the can down the road .Politicians are dangerous animals that only think in the short term ,their only concern is about getting themselves elected even if it means wrecking havoc on future generations.Spouting drivel to a dumbed down electorate that only think with their pockets not with their heads..Isn't democracy great !!!!!!!

Where do the twits, who are borrowing that money , think that Ireland is going to get the funds to repay those borrowings?
 
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