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How much worse can the economy get?


Congalltee

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Nov 10, 2009
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There appear to be two prevailing views on the Irish economy:
1) we're over the worse/turned a corner/seen green shoots;
2) we've reached the limits of "austerity".

Where are we?
Small growth
Employment rising marginally (unemployment stabilizing)
A 7.6% deficit after 5 years of "austere" budgets
A debt to GDP ratio heading towards 120%
A public sector responding to a unilateral breaking of the croke park 2010-14 agreement.
Much of the McCarthy report has not been implemented

What are the dangers?
The graduates/skilled labour who emigrate don't come back
A war impacts on global trade
A protracted public sector strike
Cuts to headline social welfare rates affect sme's, poverty levels and social strife
Personal insolvency leads to default on mortgages and the "people have a right to live in their own homes" argument prevails and an "unnaturally low" repossession rate keeps property prices artificially high fooling some into thinking that the busy has bottomed out
 


ruserious

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As I said on another thread a while back, I remember growing up, my father moaning about the recession of the 80's and how they had nothing and it was terrible and now I hear him and his ilk spouting that this recession is worse. I'm like b*tch please.
 

Burnout

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I have a life.
Apart from the business side of it, I fear the social decline overall. The fallout of been poor now and forever for some is going to take it's toll and it will need an outlet. What that outlet will be worries me. Government are not great on social things so the festering will only escalate.

Ten years ago people in the town near me left their dors ajar and many had keys in the door for regular callers. last week there were six robberies. Four were on the same day. Local people are very worried and since the closure of the Garda station it's worse. mark my words it is only a matter of time till someone gets hurt.
 

cillian32

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As I said on another thread a while back, I remember growing up, my father moaning about the recession of the 80's and how they had nothing and it was terrible and now I hear him and his ilk spouting that this recession is worse. I'm like b*tch please.
That is a terrible way to talk to your father rus.......With 2 more ************************ty budgets at least to go i think its safe to say, that things wont get better for a number of years. Austerity isnt working .Some people are blue in the face sayin it.....Sure lets carry on anyhow.
 

Congalltee

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As I said on another thread a while back, I remember growing up, my father moaning about the recession of the 80's and how they had nothing and it was terrible and now I hear him and his ilk spouting that this recession is worse. I'm like b*tch please.
This is worse. No one had money in the 80's and few had access to credit, so most people didn't over leverage themselves on debt. The debt levels are frightening. This recession is affecting all sections of society including those who were beyond the scope of previous recessions eg judges. As ever, there are gombeen men on the make or professionals making money from misery or State work (eg Nama).
 

Ryan Tubbs

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Strange thread title. By all yardsticks, apart from levels of employment, the economy has stabilised radically since 2011. So asking if it can get any "worse" suggests that it has been going downhill of late, which it simply hasn't.

Some facts in response to your points:

Where are we?
Small growth - SMALL, BUT GROWING, AND FAR MORE THAN THE REST OF EUROPE
A 7.6% deficit after 5 years of "austere" budgets - 1% AHEAD OF TARGET. TUMBLING TO 4.6% in 2014 AND UNDER 3% IN 2015
A debt to GDP ratio heading towards 120% - AND DECLINING SHARPLY FROM 2014 ONWARDS, PARTICULARLY AFTER ANY BANKING DEBT DEAL
Much of the McCarthy report has not been implemented - SO WHAT?
 

southwestkerry

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Truth be told it's impossible to tell. As long as the US and Japan keep the printing presses going the rest of us will hang in... O yes and providing China don't sense the second coming of Christ. :)
Swk
 
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This is worse. No one had money in the 80's and few had access to credit, so most people didn't over leverage themselves on debt. The debt levels are frightening. This recession is affecting all sections of society including those who were beyond the scope of previous recessions eg judges. As ever, there are gombeen men on the make or professionals making money from misery or State work (eg Nama).
No. In the 80's unemployment rose to 17%. Tax rates were at 60%.
 

Ribeye

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We've only seen the ads so far, the trailers haven't even started yet, never mind the movie,

"popcorn"
 

Congalltee

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Strange thread title. By all yardsticks, apart from levels of employment, the economy has stabilised radically since 2011...
300,000 emigrated during that time - that's a fairly big yardstick (not that emigration is forced or is necessarily a bad thing of itself for either the emigrants now or when some of them return with greater skills and a broader world view).

If you're looking up yardsticks, how many businesses were wound up 2011 v now, how much disposable income do people have, what has happened actual and relative poverty after the last two budgets?
 

hiding behind a poster

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25% of the economy used to be about building houses and selling them to each other using borrowed money. That was unsustainable, and had to stop - and when it did, the economy obviously contracted significantly. Its now stabilised.
 

Shpake

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Oct 17, 2012
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That's right... the marathon is not over yet even though the finishing line might be on the horizon. what is the schedule (I'm a bit punch drunk)
2013 3 Bn taken out of economy
2014 2 1/2 Bn to be taken out
Are we there yet or is there more to come?
 

hiding behind a poster

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300,000 emigrated during that time
No they didn't. 300,000 emigrated in FOUR years, not two - and of course that figure doesn't count inward migration, which is quite significant. Net emigration has been about 35,000 a year.
 

Socratus O' Pericles

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That's right... the marathon is not over yet even though the finishing line might be on the horizon. what is the schedule (I'm a bit punch drunk)
2013 3 Bn taken out of economy
2014 2 1/2 Bn to be taken out
Are we there yet or is there more to come?
More to come ,the economy is in terminal decline.
 

Congalltee

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No. In the 80's unemployment rose to 17%. Tax rates were at 60%.
And interest rates were 14.5% (mind you, Haughey/McSharry/dukes were able to get a deficit down from 7.9% to 1.6% in two years. It has taken 5 years to get down to 7.6%) and the economy was a quarter the size it is now. Then, as now, emigration/training/Jobscams/disability is keeping the unemployment level at 14% (youth and long term unemployment are both rising).

Huge national and personal debts is treated as normal now but we have to face interest rates to rise, more indirect taxes, more cuts to public services are to come.
 
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