How we got here and where we are going

Pensivity

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The rise of Sinn Féin has been impressive and it will probably be even more impressive come the next election. Opinions vary as to why that is, most folks say it is the failures of FF/FG which is true but I think there is more to it than that.

Obviously, the electorate like all the goodies that are on offer each election time and those who offer the most while maintaining the outward appearance of fiscal responsibility, tend to get elected. The problem is that fiscal responsibility is serious stuff and the electorate don`t want to wade in too deep. So, the mainstream politicians try to offer enough to get elected but not so much as to ruin the economy. Unfortunately, with parties on the left promising so much, the FF/FG type parties have consistently had to offer more than the country can afford. Really, it would have been better if they refused to budge from their conservative positions in decades gone by even if it meant leaving Labour grow in popularity and come to power, as in a Labour government. This is why principles are important. Compromise may be a short term fix but can store problems for the long term.

The problems caused by promises funded by bond issuances have resulted in a large national debt. Pressures are growing on the ECB to issue more currency, some of which is heading Ireland`s way but all this money printing has it`s limits. Without strict fiscal responsibility, it cannot go on indefinately. As the debt grows, pressures will begin to build and manifest in different ways. The housing crisis is an example of what happens when the free market is interferred with. Then, you get Sinn Féin growing in popularity as a result.

Lest I be misunderstood, I am not one of those FG types who constantly bash SF. My problem with SF is not their nationalist agenda or their desire for a united Ireland (which I share), but rather their left leaning political status. As for the era of the troubles, I would say that I am opposed to all violence and not just IRA violence. Strategically, I think the armed struggle while understandible was never likely to succeed. I used to think a better tactic for nationalists to take would have been to push for the development of nuclear power in the Republic and a nuclear deterrent (which might also have helped in negotiations with the likes of Margaret Thatcher). That said, I conceed that nuclear warheads are not the Christian way.

The world of politics is a monstrous slow moving thing. Today`s best intensions must contend with the legacy of past mistakes and deliberate wrongdoing. Is this correct?

Anyway, as to where we are going, I reckon Sinn Féin might lead the next Dáil. This will be a radical move to the left. How far left is anyone`s guess but it would depend a lot on what is happening in Europe and the rest of the world. A lot of people in England will take a dim view of us Irish if we do vote Sinn Féin into power even if it has nothing to do with the era of the troubles. What the English think of us only matters in so far as there be any consequences.
 


Lumpy Talbot

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Oh dear. More stern letters to the Telegraph. When will this oppression ever end... what consequences did you have in mind that the English might apply if the electorate in Ireland decided to vote in Sinn Fein with a majority?

It wouldn't be any of their business, and secondly they may well be distracted by the consequences of votes in their own country for quite some time so may not have a lot of spare time to issue voting guidelines to the Irish.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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As for nuclear warheads it seems to me that it it is the religious lunatics of the west who hanker for apocalypse. Notably the Americans and their funding for crisis in Israel/Palestine on the basis that if you can foment a war that looks like one of the prophecies in your mad book then surely Mr Jesus will swoop down and save the righteous on his holy sea-gull or whatever.

I recall when the Soviet Union began to fall there were major concerns over tracking their nuke arsenal for fear some of it would fall into the hands of those who could make a fortune out of flogging one or more to terrorist groups.

So how do we prevent xtian groups in the US taking advantage of the increasing chaos in the US from handing over a Rapture-hastener to some swivel eyed freak in the middle-east?

Or is Jesus standing in front of the missile silo doors wagging a finger at the fruitier of his faithful?
 

Lumpy Talbot

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The current Vice-President is such a man of the world that he is afraid to be found in a restaurant with a woman he's not married to, in case her obvious predilection for sinful evil (which drives all women because they are uniquely vulnerable to Satan, apparently) results in her not being able to contain herself and interfering with the Tabernacle of Jesus which is Mike Pence. According to Mike Pence's ego, anyway.

If you are concerned about the wrong sort of people potentially getting interested in big green buttons to hasten the Return of the Ring-Bearer then I'd start being concerned about the mental and emotional state of the current Vice President of the US who has at best a child's level of comprehension of the world.
 

farnaby

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The problems caused by promises funded by bond issuances have resulted in a large national debt. Pressures are growing on the ECB to issue more currency, some of which is heading Ireland`s way but all this money printing has it`s limits. Without strict fiscal responsibility, it cannot go on indefinately. As the debt grows, pressures will begin to build and manifest in different ways. The housing crisis is an example of what happens when the free market is interferred with. Then, you get Sinn Féin growing in popularity as a result.
I expect we'll be hearing a lot more about the difference between capital spending and current spending over the term of this govt. The government will open the purse strings (using ultra-cheap ECB money) for post-Covid "investment" to stimulate the economy and hopefully turn it greener, while assuring their fiscal conservative wings that they'll keep a close watch on the day to day spending.

SF will push for more overt current spending - public service capacity increases, more staff, pay rises etc. - that will need more taxes to keep going. FG/FF/Greens can thus criticise SF for higher taxes or else risking a 2008-style collapse in public finances, which will resonate with many.
 

Barroso

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I expect we'll be hearing a lot more about the difference between capital spending and current spending over the term of this govt. The government will open the purse strings (using ultra-cheap ECB money) for post-Covid "investment" to stimulate the economy and hopefully turn it greener, while assuring their fiscal conservative wings that they'll keep a close watch on the day to day spending.

SF will push for more overt current spending - public service capacity increases, more staff, pay rises etc. - that will need more taxes to keep going. FG/FF/Greens can thus criticise SF for higher taxes or else risking a 2008-style collapse in public finances, which will resonate with many.
The best thing that the new government could do would be to invest heavily in housing, cheap public housing.
The reason for this is that expensive housing drives up wages, and thus all costs, as everyone working in all branches of the economy need a place to live. The high wages needed to pay for the rentier mode of supplying each of us with a dwelling means that each and every sector has its costs pushed up.
Of course, most if not all those who have a large finger in any part of the Irish pie are heavily invested personally in this - all we need to remember is which government minister was one of the senior bondholders on the one hand, and to be even-handed about it, there was 40 gaffs on the other side of the house. So we can expect that the expensive housing market will continue into the foreseeable future.
 

Pensivity

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Oh dear. More stern letters to the Telegraph. When will this oppression ever end... what consequences did you have in mind that the English might apply if the electorate in Ireland decided to vote in Sinn Fein with a majority?

It wouldn't be any of their business, and secondly they may well be distracted by the consequences of votes in their own country for quite some time so may not have a lot of spare time to issue voting guidelines to the Irish.
Yes there may not be any consequences and Mary Lou does come across quite amicably and diplomatically when addressing English journalists. Still, old time English types still hold high office in some quarters and they have long memories despite signs of dimentia and of course there may be an element of petitness on their part if (as is usually the case) they come from the spoilt classes. Also, I reiterate, it (their leverage on Ireland) depends on what is going on in Europe and the wider world. If Europe`s integrity comes under serious pressure, we could find ourselves reluctantly back in their sphere of influence, especially if the world is going into recession.

By the way, I occasionally check Ireland`s national debt clock and I expect it to pass the quarter trillion mark later this year. If I am lucky with the timing, I might even record the debt clock when that happens.
 

Pensivity

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As for nuclear warheads it seems to me that it it is the religious lunatics of the west who hanker for apocalypse. Notably the Americans and their funding for crisis in Israel/Palestine on the basis that if you can foment a war that looks like one of the prophecies in your mad book then surely Mr Jesus will swoop down and save the righteous on his holy sea-gull or whatever.

I recall when the Soviet Union began to fall there were major concerns over tracking their nuke arsenal for fear some of it would fall into the hands of those who could make a fortune out of flogging one or more to terrorist groups.

So how do we prevent xtian groups in the US taking advantage of the increasing chaos in the US from handing over a Rapture-hastener to some swivel eyed freak in the middle-east?

Or is Jesus standing in front of the missile silo doors wagging a finger at the fruitier of his faithful?
No I think the warmongering is to distract people from the domestic and economic failures of politicians. With war, they have an excuse. I do believe many of those who say they are religious might not be or their understanding of it may be shaky.
 

Catapulta

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The State is heading for Bankruptcy IMO

At the start of the last Crash we owed circa 65 Billion to the money lenders

Irish Government Debt Clock was set at midnight on June 30th 2009, when it was €65.278 billion

Today we are at 230,000,000 billion!!!

So in just 11 years we have almost quadrupled the National Debt

- this is Insanity and clearly unsustainable.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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Trouble is that in national accounts and debt terms it is sustainable as things stand. It just means a large proportion of many budgets will be about debt repayment rather than resourcing needs.

We got nothing out of that debt remember. And the bank debt in particular was just shoved onto the national bill for reckless behaviour, non-existent due diligence and regulators who were unqualified place-men.

Which means less money for hospitals. Direct line.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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It would also be helpful if national building projects didn't mysteriously balloon out in cost post-tender by four times the original costings which secured the tender.

But that's another heavily indebted story.
 

McTell

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//

The world of politics is a monstrous slow moving thing. Today`s best intensions must contend with the legacy of past mistakes and deliberate wrongdoing. Is this correct?

Anyway, as to where we are going, I reckon Sinn Féin might lead the next Dáil. This will be a radical move to the left. How far left is anyone`s guess but it would depend a lot on what is happening in Europe and the rest of the world.

//
Given a public service of 400,000 who want their wages and pensions, and who in many cases were not fit for the job but were cousins of a TD, and cannot be sacked without major aggro, things will be run more or less the same.

The minus of an SF win will be the multinationals pulling out in a hurry, and a property crash and banking crisis left behind to be sorted out by the ever-generous sean citizen.

For millenia, ground zero was most of us living in mud huts scratching a living based on oats and sheep. Anything above this was based on colonialism and deals with multinational capitalism. Some we won, some we lost. The moral is, don't lose.
 


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