- Oct 12, 2009
Just doing a guy a favour-- we have no chance of success tho' imho as it was put more eloquently than I ever could:
"I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or as a .400 baseball hitter, but now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody."
James Carville (1944), US political consultant
We have got to make an attempt to warn all the people of the world
Originally Posted by David Malone
MPB, Tonic, morning to you both!
I feel I'm stepping into a long running family argument here. I shall tread cautiously.
I am not any kind of expert on Irish affairs. All I do is look at the underlying mathematics of it. And I cannot see how Irish GDP, and any, even semi-realistic, estimate of growth can possibly result in Ireland being able to pay off the debts it has taken on for the purpose of keeping its banks and their bond holders from taking their own losses. It's as simply as that.
Arguments about the morality or realpolitik of defauting on bonds are a secondary argument. I personally feel Ireland can and should restruture and inform the senior bond holders what loss they can expect. Other nations have done it. They are still with us. Not to mention the fact that without the costs of saving the moribund banks Ireland wouldn't be facing anything like the huge amounts she is facing. Ireland would probably be able to get alonf without bond market borrowing IF it were not for the cost of the bank bail out.
In fact without those vast costs Ireland could proabably fund its own debt internally. Using the pension money. NOT something they should do when bailing our the banks. Japan made that mistake and will die because of it. But to fund a debt NBOT including bank bail outs is another matter I think. Just my opinion.
At the very least such a move to restrucutre would force major concessions from the ECB. Basically my position is this, there are people and institutions for whom saving Ireland financial system is VERY important. Far more important than it is for the Irish people themselves.
What is happening, in my opinion, is that those for whom it is very important indeed, are using the Irish people, with the help and collusion of the Irish political class. The Irish people have been told they are doing this to save themesleves. I think this is not true.
Ireland cannot save its way our of this pit of debt. I think people like Sutherland know this. I think they also know they need time. And THAT, is what the Irish people's suffering is buying them. Just time.
Ireland is a different case to Greece. Greece is big enough to be a real problem if it fell over. Ireland is one of the two major centres of European securitization. Ireland and Lux are where a huge number of the SIV's for the securities are housed. The work was done in London, the vehicles housed in Ireland. It is a nexus of dirty laundry which runs globally. I don't think the bankers want to think about what would happen if the system fell over, and its guts spilled out for all to see. And that is why the Irish are being told they MUST bow down and do as they are told.
That as much as anything is what is being protected here.
As I say I am not any kind of expert. I just read a lot and try to think clearly about what I've read.
I have read your previous submissions. Yes! It is possible that the dollar crisis will make any Euro bonds attractive. But the important thing now is for us to hold our heads.
This whole world financial fiasco is out of control. The likes of Sutherland, Bruton and bought politicians are living in a bubble of grandeur, with their big fat salaries. They have been in another world for the past ten years. People have been shouting cries of warning; the only means of persuasion not taken up was an Armalite; sadly it, or physical/financial explosions are the only time that they are jolted into action They just have not a clue of the way things are with the Irish Banking system. This bubble that they occupy has being impregnable for the past ten years; they are like people on drugs; it is impossible to get through to them.
There has being no international control of the International Financial Buccaneers. Maverick bankers are all over the place; creating havoc wherever they go. They are bankers in name; but the modern knowledgeable lot and their professional accomplices with their sophisticated weapons of mass destruction are plain honest to goodness crooks in pin stripped suits. The destruction they cause is beyond anything that Bin Laden and his gang could ever dream off.
I mentioned yesterday in another thread that CDS will bring Ireland down.
YES. CDSs allow financiers that know nothing about how banking and finance needs to work to aid productive enterprises, make lots of money when productive enterprises go belly-up. It is amazing that this situation is allowed to continue. Ireland's CDS Curve Inverts
These guys are out for mass destruction; and they stand to gain a multiple of times the issue value of outstanding Irish Bonds plus further profits if the contagion effect clicks in. This is the real scenario. Ireland is now just a pawn in the International Financial Buccaneers hoped for Anarchic Global Financial melt-down. It is an attempt to get rich by subterfuge rather than getting rich from advising and providing capital to third parties in the production of goods and services that are of benefit to society; as is the wont of finance people!
These guys have got to be stood up to. You are a very educated lot on this forum, with tons of financial acumen, insight. We should not take this lying down.
I would suggest that someone opens a thread (I have not this facility) on how we should stand down the International Financial Buccaneers, call them to heel. Then when we have debated ways of doing this; we should bombard every financial blog site on Earth with the results of our deliberations. It is time for action! We have got to make an attempt to warn all the people of the world; get them to wake up, because if there is one thing for sure that we Irish should have learned is; that by doing nothing, those people will be next for gutting!