How will it end?

QuizMaster

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... this Dail term?
Will it go out with a bang or a whimper? Will we see it coming or will it all happen by surprise in the space of a few minutes? Who will make it happen?



And in case I don't see you, good afternoon, good evening and good night.
 


Sync

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The Greens can't walk away. Simply isn't a runner, they know what awaits them at the next election.

So then you're left with either FFers voting against the govt, or the indos doing the same. If I were a betting man I'd say 3 months after the last by election when an Indo asks for something the govt simply can't give them and throws the toys out of the pram. So oooooooh July next year.

Which, honestly, would still be amazing. The fact that FF have managed to keep limping on to almost a full term really is astonishing.

Unless Cowen goes for whatever reason and the annoint Lenihan who immediately calls an election. Which would be interesting if nothing else.
 

richie268

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... this Dail term?
Will it go out with a bang or a whimper? Will we see it coming or will it all happen by surprise in the space of a few minutes? Who will make it happen?



And in case I don't see you, good afternoon, good evening and good night.
[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-pywHFUbGw]YouTube - Tom Waits - Hows It Gonna End[/ame]
 

QuizMaster

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Ok so far we have Indo pulls plug and Lenihan seeks new mandate.
If you had to plump for one of those Sync?
 

Sync

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Ok so far we have Indo pulls plug and Lenihan seeks new mandate.
If you had to plump for one of those Sync?
Indos and a couple of FF backbench tuna break from the shoal and refuse to back the government. July 2011.
 

QuizMaster

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Let me list a few options:
(1) Government loses a series of Dail votes. If they really wanted to they could tighten things up in the whip's office and struggle along. But they decide enough is enough and come out with their hands up.

(2) Budget stinks and Paddy McWhackery from Ballygobackwards who no one ever heard of before walks into the Nil lobby. Game over.
Point of information: lose budget vote = election.

(3) Brian Lenihan stands down due to ill health (I hope not. Whatever you think of him, I don't wish cancer on anyone). After 3 by-election losses that spells game over.

(4) Paul Gogarty crosses the floor. But he'd have to be mad to do that I hear you say. What, our Paul?
 
G

Gimpanzee

I'm going out on a limb here but my prediction is a GUBU moment will be needed, as the weight of general political pressure seems to be propping this one up rather than bringing it down. How about:

Some minister found wandering in a dazed state around some public place with no trousers, but still wearing shoes and socks with diamonds up the sides, leading to the press uncovering a sordid tale of animal cruelty and Russian gangsters centred around a tanning salon in a county town.

Remember where you hear it first.
 

QuizMaster

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I'm going out on a limb here but my prediction is a GUBU moment will be needed, as the weight of general political pressure seems to be propping this one up rather than bringing it down. How about:

Some minister found wandering in a dazed state around some public place with no trousers, but still wearing shoe and socks with diamonds up the sides, leading to the press uncovering a sordid tale of animal cruelty and Russian gangsters centred around a tanning salon in a county town.

Remember where you hear it first.
I heard Ukranian.
 

yehbut_nobut

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...Some minister found wandering in a dazed state around some public place with no trousers
hmm. Coughlan or Harney? But surely not hanafin!? ;)
 

QuizMaster

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(5) The Greens get wind that some FF backbenchers are about to pull the plug and decide to beat them to it, citing the lack of consensus and the need for a government with a solid mandate to do the necessary for the next 4 years. They still get wiped out but as a consolation prize they spoil all attempts by FF to time the election in their favour. "At least we killed Fianna Fail" they will say in years to come.

(6) A senior FF figure, or 2, declare before the by-elections that the government must win at least one seat or it will no longer be a going concern. An all or nothing gambit which, if it fails, spells the end.

(7) Lenihan announces he's joining Fine Gael, who promptly make him their leader. He takes half a dozen TDs with him. Maybe more. Whole balance of power shifted, election needed.
This one would be a major game changer and all bets would be off.
This kind of thing could happen very suddenly.
 

Sync

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If you can get a shortlist let me know, we can stick a poll up. If it's popular might even have it on the sidebar if the Gods go for it.
 

Watcher2

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... this Dail term?
Will it go out with a bang or a whimper? Will we see it coming or will it all happen by surprise in the space of a few minutes? Who will make it happen?



And in case I don't see you, good afternoon, good evening and good night.
The bloody thing only started yesterday.
 

Squire Allworthy

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Some minister found wandering in a dazed state around some public place with no trousers, but still wearing shoes and socks with diamonds up the sides, leading to the press uncovering a sordid tale of animal cruelty and Russian gangsters centred around a tanning salon in a county town.

Remember where you hear it first.
He would be a cert to get re-elected and make a fortune advertising jewellery.

Events would certainly liven it up. Amazing the problems one interview caused.

If the January bond issue fails there will be an election.

Time to be nice to the ECB. Cuts Sir, how much Sir, how deep Sir? Cut off my nose Sir, no problem Sir. And just to make life fun you have the by-elections and independents.

So if clouds gather on the economic front May-June election, otherwise it will run its course.
 
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Macy

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FG agree budget measures and vote accordingly, several Greens and FFers vote against or abstain. FF call an election blaming the Greens for everything and FG are screwed by actually backing the budget. So it falls on the budget, but not on the budget vote.
 

QuizMaster

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FG agree budget measures and vote accordingly, several Greens and FFers vote against or abstain. FF call an election blaming the Greens for everything and FG are screwed by actually backing the budget. So it falls on the budget, but not on the budget vote.
But if FG (50+) vote for the budget, they can easily afford a handful of defectors. How would that cause a crisis?
 

Toland

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FG agree budget measures and vote accordingly, several Greens and FFers vote against or abstain. FF call an election blaming the Greens for everything and FG are screwed by actually backing the budget. So it falls on the budget, but not on the budget vote.
Ther is not a chance in hell of FG voting for the budget. They're the fecking main opposition party (for the moment). This is not realistic.
 


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