Hungary, immigration and birth-rate

JacquesHughes

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It is often claimed ( the logic is rarely closely argued) that countries with low birth-rates, should receive more immigrants to correct their demographic change.

In Hungary Victor Orban is not accepting that route as Hungary's future.
Hungary tries for baby boom with tax breaks and loan forgiveness - BBC News

Hungary's current fertility rate is 1.45 children per woman. An increased fertility rate, Orban said, was a way of defending Hungary's future without depending on immigration.

During Mr Orban's State of the Nation speech announcing his proposals there was a small counter protest of approx. 2000 people.

The measures will include: loans to buy houses for mothers, mortgage debt forgiveness when one has three children, lifelong exemption from income tax when a woman has four children, also assistance with nursery places and buying larger vehicles.


Comment: Fair play to Hungary for not accepting the received orthodoxy, 'There's nothing your society can do; you have to be the passive recipient of demographic changes imposed on you by others'. Victor's analysis of the issues ( financial) underlying the demographic decrease seems plausible. It now takes two hard-working successful middle-managers to buy the house that a bank-clerk and a housewife could buy 80 years ago; there's just not time off the slippery career ladder, or in the long-hours work culture to raise children. The decision to have more children is at present, for many women, a choice for dependency upon her husband/partner ( very contrary to the current ethos of feminism) , or a choice for dependency upon the state ( even less reliable, welfare benefits subject to policy change, rarely generous and bearing a stigma).

You might note, bringing in immigrants to replace a supposed 'missing generation' mocks the choice of those well-meaning women who declined to have children to 'save the planet' ( I have little idea how common those sentiments are).
'I’m not having children because I want to save the planet' - BBC News

I'm not convinced a decreasing birthrate in Europe is a problem at all. Romania's population has been decreasing since 1990- and the EU seems pretty sanguine about 'the problem'- no Brussels agency has asked me to move there; though I could be persuaded and have proven 'stud' characteristics.
Romania Population (2019) - Worldometers
 


recedite

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As part of the measures, young couples will be offered interest-free loans of 10 million forint ($36,000), to be cancelled once they have three children.

Mr Orban said that "for the West", the answer to falling birth rates in Europe was immigration: "For every missing child there should be one coming in and then the numbers will be fine.

"Hungarian people think differently," he said. "We do not need numbers. We need Hungarian children."
If only we had some politicians of this calibre.
Instead of Brussels arselickers.
 

Sync

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Zero problem with this. Govts should be shifting tax rates to address the demographic needs of their society. Doing it now before problems emerge makes sense. People need to look at Japan as their future in lots of ways (for good and for bad). Don't want to get to their demographic problems.

As long as it doesn't impact on people's rights or equality of opportunity, there's no problem with this.

From our end, it does speak to things like funding of child care. People keep asking for that to be increased because it enables both parents to work. A valid question for the govt to ask is if you actually need to be encouraging house wifes/husbands back to work right now.
 

Lagertha

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It sounds like a viable option, it gives women who want to have a family practical support and a safety net.
 

sic transit

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I'm not convinced a decreasing birthrate in Europe is a problem at all. Romania's population has been decreasing since 1990- and the EU seems pretty sanguine about 'the problem'- no Brussels agency has asked me to move there; though I could be persuaded and have proven 'stud' characteristics.
Romania Population (2019) - Worldometers
It's the overall population ageing part of that equation which is the issue. His idea is certainly not the usual policies hes been engaging in vis a vis migration.
 

recedite

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It's the overall population ageing part of that equation which is the issue. His idea is certainly not the usual policies hes been engaging in vis a vis migration.
go on.....
How is it different to his "usual policies"?
 

sic transit

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An article by one of those people responsible for ruining Sweden, with her giving out about Hungary's policies.
I'm still not seeing any inconsistency in Orban's policies.
Can you be more specific?
I would have said his attitude to migrants was very much at odds with this newly-minted paternalistic love of family guff. It's actually a better way to go about things. It probably won't work though as modern life encourages people to enjoy it rather than devote very long periods of their lives to child rearing.
 

A Voice

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France incentivised women to have more kids but I imagine it was the muslims there who mostly benefited by having the kids. France doesn't maintain census stats per ethnicity so it's hard to say.
In Hungary's case, it won't be African or Asian migrants and their descendants who will be further encouraged to breed, because Orban has kept them out.
 

Jack Walsh

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An article by one of those people responsible for ruining Sweden, with her giving out about Hungary's policies.
I'm still not seeing any inconsistency in Orban's policies.
Can you be more specific?
By ruining I assume you mean its citizens having almost twice the net income and 8 years more life expectancy than a citizen of Hungary
 

flavirostris

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Orban is one of the few European leaders who can actually pursue policies like this, because Hungary is still, well Hungarian.

No way you could do that in France or UK.
 

mr_anderson

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Sounds good, better through the tax system than welfare.
Been saying this for years.
There's no point in beating round the bush.

4 kids from a taxpaying family is infinitely better than 8 kids from our permanent dole class.
The SJW's would probably class that as a hate crime.
 

Jack Walsh

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Orban is one of the few European leaders who can actually pursue policies like this, because Hungary is still, well Hungarian.

No way you could do that in France or UK.
The EU allows you easily move there, you'd be free from this corrupt, darkie infested, homo loving crumbling country that you and your pals endlessly crib about and thrash.
 

flavirostris

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The EU allows you easily move there, you'd be free from this corrupt, darkie infested, homo loving crumbling country that you and your pals endlessly crib about and thrash.
Oh, I go there as often as I can. I love Hungary. It's the dog's bollocks.
 

Roll_On

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Sound like great policies, I'd question the funding model though. Basically you squeeze out 3 kids and you can quit paying a mortgage. Squeze a fourth out and you can quite paying income tax. How will this be funded? I have no doubt it will be successful though, who wouldn't jump at the chance. Funding it might be cheaper than buying up rural hotels and filling them with 'new Hungarians' mind you, and ultimately more stable socially.

Ireland could do with some reforms, perhaps less extreme. Certainly children's allowance ought to be replaced with an equivalent tax credit, rather than handing out cash. There should be no HAP, or families in hotels, there should be an appropriate amount of social housing instead. Asylum cases should only be considered where the applicant arrived on a direct flight. If Hungary has some spare babies in the future, their membership of the EU means we'll benefit from some extra labour, beats opening the floodgates to the 3rd world. Sure with youth unemployment in Spain and Greece so high, you'd wonder why the hotel industry is lobying so hard to get visas for 'skilled' waiters from Pakistan.

A living wage and affordable child rearing is certainly the way forward. Bringing the 3rd world here has been a failure.
 

Lagertha

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Orban is one of the few European leaders who can actually pursue policies like this, because Hungary is still, well Hungarian.

No way you could do that in France or UK.
Exactly. Euro News were doing a report on Brexit from Lambeth and Cardiff today, Lambeth had about one white face in the report, the majority of people I saw walking around were brown/black/Muslim and hijab wearing, most definitely what one would consider to be a typically British street yet that is the reality of it. Instead of London it could have been any Muslim sh!thole anywhere in the Middle East.
 


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