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If a GE happened in the morning, what would happen in CNC and CSC?


Blissett

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Joined
Nov 9, 2008
Messages
277
Just wanted to know people's thoughts.

Certainly not two seats for FF on North Central, Reckon O'Flynn to lose out. Barry has been tipped by some, but no votes in Blarney LEA for SP, and little enough votes outside of his own core in northside, so I think thats unrealistic.

Lynch is safe, as is Allen, and one FF, Kelleher i would say. Fourth seat be a toss up between FG and SF, id go for Sf on basis they will have SP and some WP transfers coming from behind them if the can continue in the race until the end.

Im going for

Lynch
Allen
Kelleher
O Brien

On South central, polls suggest that FF do not have the vote to hold two seats here. Still two very very strong TD's here, and I think they may have enough of a popular vote to hold on. If anyone is to capitalise here, probably FG. Labour not strong enough to field a second, Boyle will be demolished. Sf wll put in a very good showing, but will still be off the pace. Unless a surprise Indo (im thinking of Mick Finn) throws their hat in the ring. That all said, if Fg get their act together they could bring in buttimer. Think Ff could just do enough here.

Coveney
Martin
Lynch
Clune
McGrath.
 
Joined
Feb 11, 2008
Messages
53
I doubt Allen will be running again in CNC i'd say FG will run Gerry Kelly and Colm Burke thus failing to the a second seat. FF, FG and Lab have will 1 each with the final seat between SF, Lab and FF with with SF or Lab more likely to make a gain. If FF run 2 candidates in South Central we should hold the two and should not risk running 3 candidates. South Central likely to remain the same.
 

Rebelman

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South Central likely to remain the same.
party wise I agree but not personality wise I do think Buttimer will take Clune's seat other than that it will be as was.

Regarding NC I'd agree FF would lose a seat although not sure who would lose out of the two, labour could snaek the last seat especially if that guy from Glanmire who polled 4k plus in the locals is Kathleen's running mate, as of now I'd call it 1 FF 1 FG 2 Lab
 

locke

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May 2, 2007
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3,091
In SC a lot depends on who FF run.

If they run three, it will be next to impossible to take two seats.

So assuming they run the two sitting TDs and them only.

The absence of John Dennehy becomes very good news for Ciaran Lynch, who, with Labour's national popularity and a decent first-term as a TD to factor in too, would probably end up elected on the first count. Dennehy's absence would also benefit Sinn Fein - but they're too far back to figure - and Gerry Buttimer.

Martin and Lynch are certainties.

If Buttimer takes a seat, it's more likely to be at the expense of Coveney or McGrath.

Clune has being putting in the long hours of local slog, while Coveney has been concentrating on national issues. While we need good national polticians, it doesn't get you elected in this country.

But it's probably only 50-50 at the moment for whether FF would take a second seat. With McGrath likely to poll closer to 6,500 this time, no surplus coming from Martin and Dennehy's vote as likely to go to other local candidates as stay in the party, he'll be clinging on, watching the other challengers gradually closing the gap.


North Central depends so much on the people on the FG and Labour tickets that it's hard to call.
- Will Bernard Allen run again?
- Will a family member replace him? (I'm guessing No as we didn't see one in the locals).
- Will Paul Bradford switch to Cork NC?
- Will John Gilroy be on the Labour ticket as well as Kathleen Lynch?

If Gilroy does run, I'd say he could really steal votes from Billy Kelleher. I'd still favour Kelleher to take the FF seat, but he'd be nowhere near the top of the poll.

The split is likely to be 2 city and 2 county based TDs, so again the question of whether Allen runs become important.

Assuming the line up is Allen, Kelly, Kelleher, O'Flynn, Lynch, Gilroy, O'Brien, Barry, I'll go with - Allen, Lynch, Kelly, Kelleher.

If it's Burke, Kelly, Kelleher, O'Flynn, Lynch, Gilroy, O'Brien, Barry, I'll go with Burke, Kelleher, Lynch, Gilroy.

If it's Burke, Kelly, Kelleher, O'Flynn, Lynch, O'Brien, Barry, I'll go with Kelly, Kelleher, Lynch, O'Brien.
 

FutureTaoiseach

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If it went the same way as the locals, this is what the Tribune says would happen:
Sunday Tribune said:
Cork North-Central (4)
Fianna Fáil, with just under one quota in the constituency, would definitely lose one of its two TDs, Billy Kelleher or Noel O'Flynn. Labour with well over a quota would certainly hold its seat but would Fine Gael's 28% be enough to take a second seat? Given independents and 'others' secured 18% of the vote, the Socialist Party's Mick Barry could not be ruled out.

Outcome: FG 1 (n/c), FF 1 (-1), Labour 1 (n/c) Socialist Party 1 (+1)

Cork South-Central (5)

The collapse in Fianna Fáil's vote to just over 21% in this constituency means that one of the party's two deputies would almost certainly lose their seat. Fine Gael senator Jerry Buttimer would be the best placed to take the seat, bringing FG's total in the constituency to three. The Labour seat looks rock-solid.

Outcome: FG 3 (+1), FF 1 (-1), Labour 1 (n/c)
 

jpc

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Jun 14, 2007
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Gerry Kelly could be the man to watch.
I stand to be corrected, but didn't he clock up 5k or so the last time out?
Gilroy is a runner also.
 

kerrynorth

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Oct 5, 2005
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The FF seat that will be lost in NC will go to FG because the balance in the constituency has been changed by the boundary review with thousands of rural votes brought in and thereby preventing what otherwise would have been a SF/SP battle for the 4th seat. Noel O'Flynn is even contemplating both FF seats could be lost here.

With regards to SC I think FF could hold both but any further slippage will cost a seat. FF did particularly badly in the city. If FF were to lose one then a 3rd FG seat is the only possible outcome, although that would appear unlikely at the present. If FF stick with their 2 TD's and a City/County split then they should retain the 2.
 

Keith-M

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If it went the same way as the locals, this is what the Tribune says would happen:
I would agree with the Tribune on CNC. The SP are far more transfer friendly than SF and would take a FF seat. I disagree on CSC, where personalities will be key. I cannot see FG taking three and I think it would be "as you were".
 
Last edited:

locke

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If it went the same way as the locals, this is what the Tribune says would happen:
The problem with the Tribune analysis is that it doesn't take local factors into account. People will often vote for a candidate in their area rather than on party lines. An example of this last time out was the elimination of the Sinn Fein candidate in Cork SC. There was a very high transfer to John Dennehy of FF, simply because they both got their votes out of similar areas of Togher.

Because of that, I'd say North Central will go 2 urban, 2 rural and South Central will go either 3 urban, 2 rural or 4 urban, 1 rural (suburbs like Rochestown and Grange tend to spread their votes between urban and rural candidates, which makes it harder to work out).

Also, I can't work out why the Tribune reckons that Mick Barry is likely to beat the Sinn Fein candidate. He was 1,700 votes behind last time and Sinn Fein took a lot more votes in North Central in the locals.

Gerry Kelly could be the man to watch.
I stand to be corrected, but didn't he clock up 5k or so the last time out?
Gilroy is a runner also.
Kelly's main problem is where he can pick up transfers (to a lesser extent, being based in Knockraha, which is a small rural community at the edge of the constituency is also a drawback). With lots of small left-wing parties behing him, he could get hauled in. Last time, he was 1,400 ahead of the SF candidate on the first count, but that had been closed to 500 by the time eliminations were out of the way. If there's a stronger left vote this time, he could be even worse affected. However, if FG could split their vote more effectively, it would go some way to eliminating this weakness.
 

jpc

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Kelly's main problem is where he can pick up transfers (to a lesser extent, being based in Knockraha, which is a small rural community at the edge of the constituency is also a drawback). With lots of small left-wing parties behing him, he could get hauled in. Last time, he was 1,400 ahead of the SF candidate on the first count, but that had been closed to 500 by the time eliminations were out of the way. If there's a stronger left vote this time, he could be even worse affected. However, if FG could split their vote more effectively, it would go some way to eliminating this weakness.
Very active in the Glanmire area along with Gilroy.
Both are very well respected in an area with approx 20k constituients in a 5 km radius.
 

youngman

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Apr 25, 2009
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Dara Murphy the present Lord Mayor will run in NC
Colm Burke has said he wont run again....he feels let down by the party
Murphy could take the seat ahead of Kelly

In SC ...FF will run a third candidate to get the vote out in the west of the city
Mary Sheilds is the front runner I would think
If they dont they give Buttimer a free run of the west...alot votes there
Clune could be in trouble here....
It is going to be close
 

locke

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If Murphy and Gilroy both ran, it could really put a squeeze on Billy Kelleher. Although rurally based, he's always picked up a lot of votes in the North-Eastern part of the city as he was once a councillor in the area.

I still think that Coveney is the more vulnerable of the two sitting FG TDs. However, if FF do run Shields, they may as well hand FG the seat now.
 

Blissett

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Nov 9, 2008
Messages
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You can rule out o brien he has some serious problems going on in the back round ask a few people from up Farranree about him.
gwan on away, what are you on? Just throw some unfounded baseless nonsense at the shinners, shur that will surely work.

Gowl.
 

scotty

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What about the current Lord Mayor, Dara Murphy-he has to be a very credible FG candidiate
 

Balan

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Will Kathy Sinnott run in South Central?? If she does it would create a totally different senario.
 

bprob

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The FF seat that will be lost in NC will go to FG because the balance in the constituency has been changed by the boundary review with thousands of rural votes brought in and thereby preventing what otherwise would have been a SF/SP battle for the 4th seat. Noel O'Flynn is even contemplating both FF seats could be lost here.
i think the key to forecasting the CNC outcome is the boundary review. the rural votes will mean the second seat does swap to FG from FF, and i think a rural FF vote will go comfortably to Kelleher, rather than O'Flynn.

who the second FG is, is still up in the air, i feel. there are too many variables, such as whether allen is running again. it also depends on how good a mayor murphy turns out to be. holding with the rural votes being the deciding factor, i suggest that it will be kelly rather than murphy who takes a second FG seat, if allen is running.

i, for one, will be glad if O'Flynn loses a seat
 

locke

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Will Kathy Sinnott run in South Central?? If she does it would create a totally different senario.
I doubt it would change all that much.

CSC has just about the most liberal electorate outside Dublin and while she was perceived as a disability rights campaigner last time she ran, people are more aware of her other views now. In 2002, she took a lot of Labour's vote and that wouldn't happen again, particularly as Labour have a good sitting TD this time out.

The best she could hope to do it to take some of the rural vote from McGrath and Coveney and maybe some of the more conservative Sinn Fein vote. The only real impact she'd have is to make Buttimer better placed among the FG candidates and if it were to finish FF 2 FG 2 Lab 1, might have some impact on which FG candidate gets in.
 

Canvass_Card

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Feb 1, 2009
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You can rule out o brien he has some serious problems going on in the back round ask a few people from up Farranree about him.
:p He just got elected on the first count after topping every box in the Farranree & Churchfield area a few short weeks ago. If that is what happens when he has problems then god help the other candidates if he has no problems come the GE.
 

Podolski1.5

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May 31, 2009
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Yes he did and fair play to him , but when papers(tabloids) are sniffing about knocking on front doors around his own estate looking for info id be a little worried.
How much are they paying you?
 

scotty

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May 4, 2009
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What about Bradford in CNC- a fair bit of his area is now in that constituency
 
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