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If an Assembly election was called now, how would each party do?


Just Jack

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Amid the ongoing political turmoil emanating from the flag dispute, if Stormont was brought down and an immediate assembly election called, how would you expect each party to do?

Would this finally present an opening for the anti–GFA stance of the TUV among disillusioned unionists?

Would the crisis among fragmented unionism work in Sinn Fein’s favour and secure them the First Minister’s position?
 

IrishWelshCelt

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I'd imagine the nationalist parties would remain pretty stagnant possibily recieving slighty more of the voting share.

Unionist vote would split big time with the DUP being the biggest losers, UUP would gain but the PUP and TUV would certainly gain a few seats. Likewise Alliance would lose some of its voting share to unionism.
 

between the bridges

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WFFPP...willie frazier free protestant party, fight the republican oppressor end the cultural war...
 

Just Jack

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IrishWelshCelt

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WFFPP...willie frazier free protestant party, fight the republican oppressor end the cultural war...
Frazier is a joke himself and Gregory Campbell are two peas from the same pod, hypocrites isnt the word. Most other unionist politicians seem somewhat sane and dare I say likeable :D
 

Éamonn an Chnoic

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Id expect a bounce for unionism numbers overall. I think the current atmosphere might encourage some of the 316,612 eligible 'British Only or part British' voters that didnt vote in May 2011 out to cast their vote.

But as these non voters are mostly in strong unionist areas already, i think the unionist politicians standing in these area's will just win their seat a little more easily, not sure how many more seats it can earn them without unionist pacts between the parties.

Nationalists, nationalists & Republicans dont seem as agitated at the moment. (Shortstrand excluded) Just want to get on with it. Maybe there will be a slight increase but i can see unionism really getting their voters out for the next few elections.

What other choice have they? Nationalist parties will no doubt overtake them if they dont.
 

vivabrigada

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Is Jamie Bwyson a member of that pawty?
I don't know "pacifically", to quote the UVF supporter Bryson.
Is he getting mixed up about the big pond on the other side of America?
 

vivabrigada

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Is Jamie Bwyson a member of that pawty?
I don't know "pacifically", to quote the UVF supporter Bryson.
Is he getting mixed up about the big pond on the other side of America?
 

Tommythesash

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WFFPP...willie frazier free protestant party, fight the republican oppressor end the cultural war...
Wee Willies decision to run against Francie Molloy in the upcoming Mid Ulster byelection ensures the seat will remain safe and sound with SF/IRA.
 

Tir Eoghain

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Wee Willies decision to run against Francie Molloy in the upcoming Mid Ulster byelection ensures the seat will remain safe and sound with SF/IRA.
Willie in one of his boasts claims that not a part of East Tyrone and South Derry he won't canvas in.

Looking forward to mad Willie and Helium Jamie knocking my door.
 
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cmca1

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Unionists are too afraid of splitting their vote. Can't see PUP or TUV making any substantial gains, a seat or two perhaps. UUP increasingly irrelevant, would be as well splitting to go their separate ways to DUP, Alliance, UKIP, TUV, PUP and Conservatives. DUP will still be largest party for unionism by a considerable distance.

Sinn Fein won't change too much, may steal a few SDLP votes.

Alliance may actually gain (contrary to what a lot of people think) a few votes from soft nationalists and unionists disenchanted with sectarian politics.
 

Tir Eoghain

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Unionists are too afraid of splitting their vote. Can't see PUP or TUV making any substantial gains, a seat or two perhaps. UUP increasingly irrelevant, would be as well splitting to go their separate ways to DUP, Alliance, UKIP, TUV, PUP and Conservatives. DUP will still be largest party for unionism by a considerable distance.

Sinn Fein won't change too much, may steal a few SDLP votes.

Alliance may actually gain (contrary to what a lot of people think) a few votes from soft nationalists and unionists disenchanted with sectarian politics.
Willie might get a few hundred from the die hard 'Fleg' supporters.

Young Nationalists at first time to vote will be casting for the strongest party that can bring their aspirations to them.
 

Mattarigna

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Well, I'm just shooting in the dark here, but my guess is that the DUP/UUP will lose their overall majority to "Fleggers", a shift of some softer unionists to the Alliance party, and the ever-increasing Nationalist share of the vote.
 

Mickeymac

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Well, I'm just shooting in the dark here, but my guess is that the DUP/UUP will lose their overall majority to "Fleggers", a shift of some softer unionists to the Alliance party, and the ever-increasing Nationalist share of the vote.


For a shot in the dark, that sounds like good shootin to me.
 

Mattarigna

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For a shot in the dark, that sounds like good shootin to me.
In fairness, I don't think that the DUP/UUP had a large majority anyways.....a couple of seats to "fleggers", maybe an extra Alliance seat, and a handful more seats to Nationalists would properly do the job.

Als, are you saying that because you're a shinner (I apologise for my assumption)?
 

Mickeymac

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In fairness, I don't think that the DUP/UUP had a large majority anyways.....a couple of seats to "fleggers", maybe an extra Alliance seat, and a handful more seats to Nationalists would properly do the job.

Als, are you saying that because you're a shinner (I apologise for my assumption)?

I came to my conclusion in reply to the OP who asked what posters thought if an election was called now

An election in a couple of years will most likely yield different outcomes.
 

Tir Eoghain

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Unionists have lost Beal Feirste for good and that is what upsets them . Derrys a lost cause to them always was thats why they had to get artificial gerrymandering . The days of their triumphalism is coming to a very abrupt end and the sooner they get to grips with it the better for themselves.
 
C

Castle Ray

PUP would win a seat in East Belfast probably from UUP with Alliance just holding onto their second seat.

I don't see any gains or losses for TUV anywhere.

The only unionist gain would be West Belfast of a decent single candidate was stood but the pro-Union vote there could be split by Conservatives resulting in no Unionist gain.

South Down and South Belfast would be interesting to see if UUP lost a seat in either to nationalism / Alliance.

East Londonderry would be interesting to see if McClarty remains independent.
 

Mickeymac

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Unionists have lost Beal Feirste for good and that is what upsets them . Derrys a lost cause to them always was thats why they had to get artificial gerrymandering . The days of their triumphalism is coming to a very abrupt end and the sooner they get to grips with it the better for themselves.

Indeed Tir, two biggest cities in the sick counties now in Nationalist hands.
 
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