If FF run 2 in Cork North-Central next time - what would be the fallout ?

PO'Neill

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A person made an interesting point in a discussion that since Billy Kelleher topped the poll with 4,000 over the quota, FF will probably be running a second candidate next time. FF's single candidate got 27.9%, SF with two candidates got 19.6%, AAA 15.7%, FG's 2 candidates 17.8% with runner up in this 4 seater LP's Kathleen Lynch on 7.3%.

So for those living down there what's your thoughts, Dara Murphy to be in serious trouble from a second FFer ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cork_North-Central_(Dáil_Éireann_constituency)#2016_general_election


(Oppps, thanks to that Corkonian SFer for that PM, post edited, Galway going to win the hurling though :) )
 
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PBP voter

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A person made an interesting point in a discussion that since Billy Kelleher topped the poll with 4,000 over the quota, FF will probably be running a second candidate next time. FF's single candidate got 27.9%, SF with two candidates got 19.6%, AAA 15.7%, FG's single candidate Dara Murphy 10.3% with runner up in this 4 seater LP's Kathleen Lynch on 7.3%.

So for those living down there what's your thoughts, Dara Murphy to be in serious trouble from a second FFer ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cork_North-Central_(Dáil_Éireann_constituency)#2016_general_election
FG had two candidates you stupid pissed up drunk.

AAA or SF will lose a seat.

FFG will have 3 next time.
 

ruserious

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I think for North Central, you will need to keep an eye on what happens south of the river. Whomever is the strongman (Coveney Vs Martin) heading into the next election, they may bring some marginal seats with them, including CNC.
Dara Muurphy has become an even bigger irrelevance now that he's been demoted.

I predict a safe seat for FF and SF.
Mick Barry will probably hang on.
And a massive fight between FF and FG for the last seat.
Again, it will be determined by whichever Southsider looks set to lead.
 

PO'Neill

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I think for North Central, you will need to keep an eye on what happens south of the river. Whomever is the strongman (Coveney Vs Martin) heading into the next election, they may bring some marginal seats with them, including CNC.
Dara Muurphy has become an even bigger irrelevance now that he's been demoted.

I predict a safe seat for FF and SF.
Mick Barry will probably hang on.
And a massive fight between FF and FG for the last seat.
Again, it will be determined by whichever Southsider looks set to lead.
Interesting how local politics can play out. Will be an interesting contest in CNC, could be a massive fight between FF and FG for the last seat - or the Trots v SF !! OUCH :lol:
 

the secretary

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If FF notch on a few percent here they will challenge for a second. If micky South of the city is in a position to be elected Taoiseach then CNC could give another to FF. It certainly won't be a second for FG.
Alphabet soup v SF will be interesting. SF should probably only run one this time.
 

PBP voter

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Interesting how local politics can play out. Will be an interesting contest in CNC, could be a massive fight between FF and FG for the last seat - or the Trots v SF !! OUCH :lol:
They are still pissing themselves laughing over the by-election in Dub South West.
 

Henry94.

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As you were I'd say. Barry, O'Brien, Murphy and Kelleher. They will have about a quota and be impossible to shift.
 

PO'Neill

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If FF notch on a few percent here they will challenge for a second. If micky South of the city is in a position to be elected Taoiseach then CNC could give another to FF. It certainly won't be a second for FG.
Alphabet soup v SF will be interesting. SF should probably only run one this time.
It's true, the 'real' capital v a gay Indian from the arch enemy Dublin could be a factor !! Doubt if there's any love lost between SF and Sol/AAA, there never is with the abrasive Trots of AAA, I'd say SF to run 2.
 

the secretary

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It's true, the 'real' capital v a gay Indian from the arch enemy Dublin could be a factor !! Doubt if there's any love lost between SF and Sol/AAA, there never is with the abrasive Trots of AAA, I'd say SF to run 2.
The looser of SF v alphabet soup will lose out to FF in the event of any change, that's why SF should run 1. Look at donegal last time.
 

PO'Neill

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The looser of SF v alphabet soup will lose out to FF in the event of any change, that's why SF should run 1. Look at donegal last time.
Donegal will be on their minds all right. People have been dismissing the Trots because they doing badly in polls on 1 or 2%, but as I stated they pool their resources and work hard at community level. But the thing is, AAA were very much associated with the anti water charges campaign, without that could it effect Barry's vote next time ?
 

PO'Neill

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the secretary

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Donegal will be on their minds all right. People have been dismissing the Trots because they doing badly in polls on 1 or 2%, but as I stated they pool their resources and work hard at community level. But the thing is, AAA were very much associated with the anti water charges campaign, without that could it effect Barry's vote next time ?
P Doherty 's ego was too big last time. It took a big hit.
SF won't make the same mistake in CNC if they have any cop on at all. O'Brien should insist on running alone.

The water thing might not impact on his vote. If he is working on the ground and being visible to constituents then he may get re-elected. Odds are that he likely will
 

PO'Neill

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If FG fail to win a seat in CNC, say 2 FF, 1SF, 1 Sol/AAA, and in Cork South Central probably same as before 2 FF, 1 SF, 1 FG.

Therefore only 1 out of 8 for FG and none for LP - some drop since 2011.
 

the secretary

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If FG fail to win a seat in CNC, say 2 FF, 1SF, 1 Sol/AAA, and in Cork South Central probably same as before 2 FF, 1 SF, 1 FG.

Therefore only 1 out of 8 for FG and none for LP - some drop since 2011.
FG will get 1 seat in each.
If they are going to win a third then I would say it will be in CSC.
 

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cricket

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Shinner sources tell me that Gould is still adamant that he should be on SF ticket. He hasn't a hope of election, though, and might cause bother for O'Brien.
 

SuirView

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FG had two candidates you stupid pissed up drunk.

AAA or SF will lose a seat.

FFG will have 3 next time.
Poor "P O'Neill" is ignoring the above, nearly 10 hours later!
And guess who started this thread?
 

SuirView

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They are still pissing themselves laughing over the by-election in Dub South West.
It happened again!
Will poor "P O'Neill" run away from the thread he started?
 

SuirView

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It's true, the 'real' capital v a gay Indian from the arch enemy Dublin could be a factor !! Doubt if there's any love lost between SF and Sol/AAA, there never is with the abrasive Trots of AAA, I'd say SF to run 2.
If you're sticking by your prediction of poor SF winning 75+ seats, they'll need to run 2.
 


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