If Lynch Had Invaded?

Effin Effer!!!

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T.V. program on this Tuesday night on R.T.E. 1 at 9.35pm about what might have happened if an Taoiseach Jack Lynch had decided to invade the North. A what if documentary.

Lets pretend an invasion did take place what do you think would have happened?
 


wombat

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At the time, the Brits would have sent a Phantom jet over & bombed the troops, who would have thrown rocks at it.
 

Keith-M

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A demoralising defeat for the Irish Army, huge amount of refugees leaving N.I. for the Republic, barred from the EU, subsequent economic collapse and probably a closed border today (ala Cyprus/TRN Cyprus).
 
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thebig C

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T.V. program on this Tuesday night on R.T.E. 1 at 9.35pm about what might have happened if an Taoiseach Jack Lynch had decided to invade the North. A what if documentary.

Lets pretend an invasion did take place what do you think would have happened?
:) Well, with 10000 thousand poorly equiped infantry. Several dozen armoured cars some of which dated from the 1930s. 8 tanks of WW2 vintage. A handful of helicopters. No aircraft capable of air-support. And a Navy that for about 8 months in 1969/1970 actually had no ships..........invading effectively part of the UK, which was a member of NATO.

The Irish army might at first have captured the likes of Newry, Enniskillen and Derry City. But as soon as significant British forces mobilised, the Irish Defence Forces would have been wiped out in a matter of days. The biggoted Unionist population backed by the RUC/B Specials would have attacked Catholic areas en masse killing thousands and forcing thousands more to flee South . Further more, the Brits might have crossed the border, launched air-strikes on Dublin from RAF bases in Wales etc etc. Doesn't bare thinking about. To cap it all we would be paying reparations and there would have been social chaos and unrest for years. Maybe even resulting in what remained of the Army, which probably would have been against invading in the first place, taking control and implimenting military dictatorship. We could have kissed EEC membership goodbye too.

:) Looks like a cool programme I will def be watching!

C
 

Estragon

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I suppose they would have taken the left bank of the Foyle with little or no fuss and the British would have let them have it. After that, who knows.
 

Tigris Celtica

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A demoralising defeat for the Irish Army, huge amount of refugees leaving N.I. for the Republic, expulsion from the EU, subsequent economic collapse and probably a closed border today (ala Cyprus/TRN Cyprus).
Absolutely - And where have Zanu FF led us to by 2009 ? :

Huge amount of refugees leaving the Republic for the UK, economic collapse.
 

DeGaulle 2.0

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What would probably have happened is that Britain would have demanded an immediate withdrawal and moved a few bombers and troops to NI with suitable publicity. We would have had no choice but to withdraw immediately.

What might have happened - we would be exposed to the same sort of attack that Russia launched in Georgia.

Threatening to invade is one thing. Actually invading would have exposed the hollowness of the threat.
 

EamonnZ

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T.V. program on this Tuesday night on R.T.E. 1 at 9.35pm about what might have happened if an Taoiseach Jack Lynch had decided to invade the North. A what if documentary.

Lets pretend an invasion did take place what do you think would have happened?
We would have suffered a very humiliating loss of life, a lack of credibility on the international stage, possible economic sanctions and the possibility of another civil war down South.

That would be my take on it if he had invaded.
 

thebig C

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What would probably have happened is that Britain would have demanded an immediate withdrawal and moved a few bombers and troops to NI with suitable publicity. We would have had no choice but to withdraw immediately.

What might have happened - we would be exposed to the same sort of attack that Russia launched in Georgia.

Threatening to invade is one thing. Actually invading would have exposed the hollowness of the threat.
Kind of like the Argies in 82!
 

DeGaulle 2.0

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Kind of like the Argies in 82!
Argentina came close enough. One or two missiles or torpedos could have changed the result. If they could have sunk one of the main British vessels they could have retained the islands.

The supply chain to NI is a lot shorter and they even make missiles in Belfast (not sure if they did back then).
 

jmcc

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Worst Case: World War III. British move some of the BOAR occupation army from Germany. Warsaw Pact takes advantage of possible discord between US and UK governments and weakened forces in West Germany.

Best Case: Repartition after intervention by US and EC.

(For the benefit of Keith-M, Ireland was not in the European Economic Community at the time.)

Regards...jmcc
 

agora

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:) Well, with 10000 thousand poorly equiped infantry. Several dozen armoured cars some of which dated from the 1930s. 8 tanks of WW2 vintage. A handful of helicopters. No aircraft capable of air-support. And a Navy that for about 8 months in 1969/1970 actually had no ships..........invading effectively part of the UK, which was a member of NATO.

The Irish army might at first have captured the likes of Newry, Enniskillen and Derry City. But as soon as significant British forces mobilised, the Irish Defence Forces would have been wiped out in a matter of days. The biggoted Unionist population backed by the RUC/B Specials would have attacked Catholic areas en masse killing thousands and forcing thousands more to flee South . Further more, the Brits might have crossed the border, launched air-strikes on Dublin from RAF bases in Wales etc etc. Doesn't bare thinking about. To cap it all we would be paying reparations and there would have been social chas. We could have kissed EEC membership goodbye.

:) Looks like a cool programme I will def be watching!

C
All of which assumes they would have been dumb enough to use conventional military tactics rather than guerrilla warfare. Obviously taking on the British Army on their own terms would have been disastrous, but if the resources (meagre granted) of the Army had been put into a sustained campaign of properly targeted assasinations & attacks on troops both in NI & Britain I think we could have stood a fair chance of eventually wearing them down.

I'm not simply talking of an expanded & improved version of what the PIRA did (which essentially amounted to the wholesale slaughter of civilians & the damaging of the Republican ideal) but rather a campaign where as large a proportion of nationalists both North & South were given arms & encouraged to defend their country with honour. After all if the North Vietnamese were able to wear the US down why couldn't we have done the same?

Obviously the problem with this is that we would still be left with a bitterly divided I Northern province, assuming we did eventually exasperate the Brits into leaving.
 

History Student

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The Irish Army were better equipped than RUC and UDR etc so the Army would have secured Newry and precipitated a pogrom against Catholics in the east of N.I.

The British would have demanded withdrawal or immediate and terrible war (oops that was in 1921), no, the British knew that Union Jack Lynch would never have authorised an invasion, perhaps a plan was drawn up should he have been deposed and replaced by Haughey in combat gear surrounded by FF men in ill-fitting revolutionary outfits.

Ive heard rumours that Kevin Myers was planning a suicide attack on Irish positions just north of Newry should the occasion arise.

Ah, the old what if, didnt Gerry Adams father believe that this scenario was real and imminent.
 

cropbeye

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If they invaded

It seems R.T.E are setting up another man of straw argument as the question being asked
is disingeneous.

The worst case scenario contingency plan would be to try to establish a buffer zone around
Derry city and perhaps a few issolated out posts on the edge of Fermanagh.
Remember the population is these areas were and are overwhelmingly nationalist.

Mostly the idea would have been to cover the rear of the local population establish support
camps and give some local recruits training for devensive purposes only.

Lynch actually made two of the worst of all world decisions. First he gave the provocative
we wont stand by speech. Then he dithered . Then he set up a cabinet subcomittee to set up logistical parameters for a contingency plan.According to Col Heffernans full transcript
therefore the individuals Haughey and Blaney were therefore acting with full executive approval.

Having first for warned the Brits and then receiving the diplomatic squeeze he panicked and
in fear decided to offer up the heads of two of his best performing ministers as well as an
Army captain and a very decent ordinary citizen.
 
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My late uncle was an officer based in Finner at the time. He later told my father that he was shown a map of Derry and given the task of securing a section on the west bank of the Foyle by the FCA attached to Western Command. He was told to expect a freindly reception so i presume he was going nowhere near the Fountain!
There was no plan to go over the bridge in the city, i think it would have been mostly about a gesture and nothing else. If the UN intervened, it would have been accpetable by Lynch
 

loner

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Are we paying our TV licences to look at flights of fancy of this kind--the concept of us invading the North is fatuous in the extreme---no wonder we are a laughing stock
 

MacO'velli

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My late uncle was an officer based in Finner at the time. He later told my father that he was shown a map of Derry and given the task of securing a section on the west bank of the Foyle by the FCA attached to Western Command. He was told to expect a freindly reception so i presume he was going nowhere near the Fountain!
There was no plan to go over the bridge in the city, i think it would have been mostly about a gesture and nothing else. If the UN intervened, it would have been accpetable by Lynch
The FCA??, As far as I'm aware, the FCA mobilisation was to backfill security duties of batallions moved to border areas, if the western command units were "deployed", the FCA would have been rostered to guard installations Galway, Castlebar,Longford etc.
 

USER1234

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Are we paying our TV licences to look at flights of fancy of this kind--the concept of us invading the North is fatuous in the extreme---no wonder we are a laughing stock
Yes we do pay our TV licences to look at flights of fancy of this kind as it is a very intresting look at how Ireland might have gone!!!
 
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The FCA??, As far as I'm aware, the FCA mobilisation was to backfill security duties of batallions moved to border areas, if the western command units were "deployed", the FCA would have been rostered to guard installations Galway, Castlebar,Longford etc.
In the 60's the army was tiny and it was going to be a case of all hands on decks for this one!
 


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