If Marine Le Pen becomes French President and France leaves the EU, what then 4 Ireland?

Adrian_Wainer

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Marine Le Pen has a good chance of becoming French President and has promised to hold a referendum on France's membership of the EU. If France leaves the EU should Ireland stay in the EU or leave?

[video=youtube;Q43NaJzP2Es]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q43NaJzP2Es[/video]
 
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cyberianpan

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In either case, Ireland should now start working on a formal relationship with the UK that would be at least as strong as our current EU one

cyp
 

Notachipanoaktree

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In either case, Ireland should now start working on a formal relationship with the UK that would be at least as strong as our current EU one

cyp
You mean, 'build another rat's burrow' just in case loike.

10 Rat Facts

If a rat is trapped and released it can move up to four miles from the release point.
A rat burrow can be three meters deep but is rarely more than 0.5 meters deep.
Brown rats show a tendency to be negative geotaxis which means they prefer to move downwards as opposed to upwards.
Black rats are superior climbers and can climb any slightly roughed surface up or down.
Brown rats can jump vertically more than 77cm and 120cm horizontally.
At one time 11-31% of all female rats are pregnant.
Patterns of movement become so engrained in rats that when they get used to moving around an obstacle, if the obstacle is removed they will continue to move around it. Thus the correct siting of trap means they do not have to be baited but it is imperative they are placed directly on the run.
Female rats can distinguish the sex of their offspring by smell.
Rodents can live and breed in cold stores and have been known to nest in the fat layer of carcasses.
Rats eat up to 10% of their body weight a day and cannot live without access to water.
 

blokesbloke

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In either case, Ireland should now start working on a formal relationship with the UK that would be at least as strong as our current EU one

cyp
Correct - and it should nominate Sean Gallagher and Joan Burton to do so.

Between them they would charm us so totally Ireland would get a sweetheart deal.
 

Congalltee

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Why would Ireland leave the EU? (Assuming the eu continues to exist).

Ireland would pay a very heavy price for access to the single market. A punt nua would be very weak. Our interest rates would rocket. Our whole business model would be turned on its head.

What would be gain? Control of our border, exclusive access to Irish fishing waters, tax freedom, and sovereignty.
 

Notachipanoaktree

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Why would Ireland leave the EU? (Assuming the eu continues to exist).

Ireland would pay a very heavy price for access to the single market. A punt nua would be very weak. Our interest rates would rocket. Our whole business model would be turned on its head.

What would be gain? Control of our border, exclusive access to Irish fishing waters, tax freedom, and sovereignty.
business model is that what you call it? hahahahahahahah ahjahahyahyayhayya
 

blokesbloke

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I think it highly unlikely France would ever leave the EU but if it did I think the EU would collapse.

France is a key founder member, I simply cannot imagine the EU surviving without it.
 

Truth.ie

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Why would Ireland leave the EU? (Assuming the eu continues to exist).

Ireland would pay a very heavy price for access to the single market. A punt nua would be very weak. Our interest rates would rocket. Our whole business model would be turned on its head.

What would be gain? Control of our border, exclusive access to Irish fishing waters, tax freedom, and sovereignty.
Ireland already meets the requirements for access to the Single Market.
Why would it have to pay a heavy price?

Yeah. Pffft. Control of our border. tax freedom, fishing territories regained.....and sovereignty. I mean what would be gained??
 

Truth.ie

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I think it highly unlikely France would ever leave the EU but if it did I think the EU would collapse.

France is a key founder member, I simply cannot imagine the EU surviving without it.
It think there is a higher chance of France leaving than Le Pen winning.
Le Pen will face a massive media onslaught in the coming months.
You dont have to be a Le Pen voter to support Frexit though. Many far left groups also want Frexit.
 

petaljam

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Ireland already meets the requirements for access to the Single Market.
Why would it have to pay a heavy price?

Yeah. Pffft. Control of our border. tax freedom, fishing territories regained.....and sovereignty. I mean what would be gained??
Meeting legal requirements is all it takes when a country is a member of the EU, but why would the other EU countries want to allow Ireland the same access if they were no longer members?


It think there is a higher chance of France leaving than Le Pen winning.
Le Pen will face a massive media onslaught in the coming months.
You dont have to be a Le Pen voter to support Frexit though. Many far left groups also want Frexit.
They're never going to get into power though, and their electoral support (all couples of percent of it) is often mostly protest vote, not actually support for their policies. The same is also true to some extent for the FN, a lot of those who vote for them don't support whole swathes of their policies. Leaving the EU is one of those.

Even if Marine Le Pen did get in this time (depending on various factors that's now a possibility IMO, albeit still a distant one) but winning a referendum to leave the EU would be a different kettle of fish altogether.
 

Truth.ie

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Meeting legal requirements is all it takes when a country is a member of the EU, but why would the other EU countries want to allow Ireland the same access if they were no longer members?




They're never going to get into power though, and their electoral support (all couples of percent of it) is often mostly protest vote, not actually support for their policies. The same is also true to some extent for the FN, a lot of those who vote for them don't support whole swathes of their policies. Leaving the EU is one of those.

Even if Marine Le Pen did get in this time (depending on various factors that's now a possibility IMO, albeit still a distant one) but winning a referendum to leave the EU would be a different kettle of fish altogether.
Every country in the World bar 3 or 4, has access to the Single Market.
Looks like the Irish Remainians have simply decided to adopt the same (losing) debating tactics as the Brit Remainians, which is fear and misinformation.
 

blokesbloke

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It think there is a higher chance of France leaving than Le Pen winning.
Le Pen will face a massive media onslaught in the coming months.
You dont have to be a Le Pen voter to support Frexit though. Many far left groups also want Frexit.
But will Frexit be offered by any other candidate?

As far as can see only Le Pen has promised a referendum.

I cannot see any mainstream candidate allowing one.
 

petaljam

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Every country in the World bar 3 or 4, has access to the Single Market.

Of course they do. I said the same access, IOW zero tariffs, no extra costs of border controls and so on. That's the difference.
It's a big one.

Looks like the Irish Remainians have simply decided to adopt the same (losing) debating tactics as the Brit Remainians, which is fear and misinformation.
That's all been on the one side so far. Millions for the NHS anyone?
 

Analyzer

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France wants out of the nEU empire ?

I doubt it. The are using it to suck money out of everybody else.

Whether it is agriculture, banking, or gambles gone wrong on Greek debt, & dodgy private sector Irish banks France has found the nEU empire to be useful in sucking others dry.

France will not vote for Le Pen because she would cut the access to other people's money.

And Ireland's parasite political class who model the administration of this control on France will not countenance any such move.

Expect Valls ( another liar standing under a red rose ) to get back into power and preserve the nonsense.
 

Notachipanoaktree

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9-12 October 2016
Arthaud, Philippe, Mélenchon, Joly, Hollande, Bayrou, Sarkozy, Dupont, Le Pen
0,5 %.... 1,5 %.... 10 %....... 2 %...28 %.......7 %.... 29,5 %... 2 %....19,5 %

After only two months Hollande and Sarky are gone.

Just forget what the Polls and Media say. Real People are nowhere near as predictable or gullible as Deloitte, The polls, or the Media, think.

Low IQ grads are, but they don'y vote.
 

Truth.ie

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But will Frexit be offered by any other candidate?

As far as can see only Le Pen has promised a referendum.

I cannot see any mainstream candidate allowing one.

Well, no.
But then again, it's not that long ago that UKIP was the only party promising a referendum.
Then for ulterior motives and political wriggle room the biggest party did just the same thing.
Hoping France also embraces democracy, if even for party political electoral gain.
 

Ruadh

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France might choose to leave but it seems Italy will leave.
The question is when.

Ireland might try to be the sole peripheral member bound to Germany. It depends on what's the best for our Capitalists
 

Truth.ie

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Of course they do. I said the same access, IOW zero tariffs, no extra costs of border controls and so on. That's the difference.
It's a big one.


That's all been on the one side so far. Millions for the NHS anyone?
That slogan said "That money could be used for the NHS".
Basic English grammar would show it was not a lie.

On the other hand, the Remainians warned of
"Increased risk of Islamic terror"
"A return of the Troubles in the North".
"Instant job losses for tens of thousands"
"Pensioners being evicted from Spain"
Troops on the Irish border"
"Brits needing visas to visit Europe"
 


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