IMF/EFSF: probable consequences

SkatesOn

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Feb 12, 2009
Messages
59
I know some of these would have been implemented anyway as part of Budget 2011, but I just wanted to call out what I think will happen as a result of the IMF/EFSF being called in.
I have also added what I think is the probability of each happening.

I am not saying that all will be immediately implemented - for some I would be looking at the next 3 year period.

Here goes:

1. Bank Guarantee to be revoked/renegotiated - 80%
2. Nationalise AIB & BoI - 90%
3. Public Sector pay cuts - 100%
4. Social Welfare pay cuts - 100%
5. Bond yields return to "normal" levels - 70%
6. Increase in income tax - 100%
7. Cancel Metro North - 100%
8. Corporation Tax increase - 70%
9. VAT increase - 75%
10. Reduction in Pension relief - 80%
11. Residential Property tax - 100%
12. Water Rates - 100%
13. University Fees - 90%
14. Wealth Tax - 70%

All suggestions welcome.
 


Congalltee

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Joined
Nov 10, 2009
Messages
6,124
1 public sector strikes
2 homelessness increasing massively
3 low income earners brought into tax net
4 a right wing party will emerge
5 racist attacks on foreigners increase
6 the poor will have poorer education, healthcare, social support and fewer opportunities for their children to break the cycle
7 those in victorian mental asylums will be forgotten about
8 the numbers in relative poverty will increase from 720,000
9 the middle class poor will emigrate in large numbers
10 Ireland will never pass another EU treaty.

All of the above are 100% certain to follow implementation of cuts rather then reforms such as Lenihan/IMF/efsf are or will propose (and you have outlined).
 

superpiper

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Joined
Apr 25, 2007
Messages
94
1 public sector strikes
2 homelessness increasing massively
3 low income earners brought into tax net
4 a right wing party will emerge
5 racist attacks on foreigners increase
6 the poor will have poorer education, healthcare, social support and fewer opportunities for their children to break the cycle
7 those in victorian mental asylums will be forgotten about
8 the numbers in relative poverty will increase from 720,000
9 the middle class poor will emigrate in large numbers
10 Ireland will never pass another EU treaty.

All of the above are 100% certain to follow implementation of cuts rather then reforms such as Lenihan/IMF/efsf are or will propose (and you have outlined).

An optomistic view. IMHO
 

anewbeginning

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Jan 20, 2009
Messages
4,616
The following is probable and I am not saying I agree with any of it.

20% welfare cut including pensions
20% cut in Public Sector salaries
20% cut in Public Sector pensions
10% cut in public sector numbers
Croke Park agreement revoked
 

Mugsey23

Active member
Joined
Nov 17, 2010
Messages
116
1 public sector strikes
2 homelessness increasing massively
3 low income earners brought into tax net
4 a right wing party will emerge
5 racist attacks on foreigners increase
6 the poor will have poorer education, healthcare, social support and fewer opportunities for their children to break the cycle
7 those in victorian mental asylums will be forgotten about
8 the numbers in relative poverty will increase from 720,000
9 the middle class poor will emigrate in large numbers
10 Ireland will never pass another EU treaty.

All of the above are 100% certain to follow implementation of cuts rather then reforms such as Lenihan/IMF/efsf are or will propose (and you have outlined).
I concur if they impose Draconian cuts we will see rioting in the streets
 

Kevin Doyle

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Joined
Jan 9, 2007
Messages
11,017
The following is probable and I am not saying I agree with any of it.

20% welfare cut including pensions
20% cut in Public Sector salaries
20% cut in Public Sector pensions
10% cut in public sector numbers
Croke Park agreement revoked
You keep coming up with these arbitary percentages, could you expand on what you use to determine such nice round figures?
 

Delarivier

Active member
Joined
May 29, 2007
Messages
102
Add massive crime wave, as desperate people search for any means possible to survive. Also add need for soup kitchens/ charity food distribution (and not just cheese!)
200,000 people minimum to leave by 2015, mostly the middle class who see no future for themselves and their children in this country.
 

Kevin Doyle

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Jan 9, 2007
Messages
11,017
I concur if they impose Draconian cuts we will see rioting in the streets
that is probably the only 100% guaranteed outcome of this.
 

truthflyer

Member
Joined
Feb 5, 2009
Messages
61
I know some of these would have been implemented anyway as part of Budget 2011, but I just wanted to call out what I think will happen as a result of the IMF/EFSF being called in.
I have also added what I think is the probability of each happening.

I am not saying that all will be immediately implemented - for some I would be looking at the next 3 year period.

Here goes:

1. Bank Guarantee to be revoked/renegotiated - 80%
2. Nationalise AIB & BoI - 90%
3. Public Sector pay cuts - 100%
4. Social Welfare pay cuts - 100%
5. Bond yields return to "normal" levels - 70%
6. Increase in income tax - 100%
7. Cancel Metro North - 100%
8. Corporation Tax increase - 70%
9. VAT increase - 75%
10. Reduction in Pension relief - 80%
11. Residential Property tax - 100%
12. Water Rates - 100%
13. University Fees - 90%
14. Wealth Tax - 70%

All suggestions welcome.
+1

Also 70K Public Sector parasites
 

jacko

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Joined
Mar 6, 2009
Messages
2,651
remenber that if the Croke Park agreement is torn up - then its Bye Bye to the reform package

Pay me less and i'll work less
 

Congalltee

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Joined
Nov 10, 2009
Messages
6,124
remenber that if the Croke Park agreement is torn up - then its Bye Bye to the reform package

Pay me less and i'll work less
The danger with that approach is that someone following it could find themselves working 100% less. It is myth that public sector workers cannot be sacked and refusal to follow reasonable directions can lead to discipline and potentially dismissal. For your sake and that of your co-workers should change your attitude or your job.
 

LongShanks

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Joined
Feb 23, 2009
Messages
644
+1

Also 70K Public Sector parasites
Maybe you'd like to clarify why you use a pejorative term like this.

As I've asked other anti PS posters, have you told your PS family and friends that you think they're parasites?
 

scallioneater

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Joined
Nov 6, 2010
Messages
413
remenber that if the Croke Park agreement is torn up - then its Bye Bye to the reform package

Pay me less and i'll work less
It's sentiment like this that gives PS workers a bad name. While we are at it, can you name one reform achieved under the CPA?
 

truthisfree

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Joined
Jul 16, 2009
Messages
6,207
I concur if they impose Draconian cuts we will see rioting in the streets
I am not at all sure that we will see rioting on the streets, every dog on the street knew that the bubble was un-sustainable, and lets remember apart from the builders and Public service who gained from it? I did not gain from the Celtic tiger, lots did not, of those I know that did gain will not survive in the coming years and do not deserve to either, they would never have made it in normal times. For every person who calls for a riot there is five who believe not.

I could be wrong, but can you see the Public Service rioting? Not a chance, they know full well that the game is up and whatever cuts come down the line they deserve regardless of whatever whinging they do.
 

truthisfree

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Joined
Jul 16, 2009
Messages
6,207
remenber that if the Croke Park agreement is torn up - then its Bye Bye to the reform package

Pay me less and i'll work less
I am 11 months dealing with a government department, do you think they would be bothered to spend 20min processing something that has to be done, they are more than a disgrace, they ore incompetent. So work less if that is possible and in time you will have your ass out on the street where you belong.
 
G

Gimpanzee

Public Sector pay and pension cuts
Public Sector redundancies
Social welfare cuts
Income Tax rises
Property Tax
Water Rates
Bank closures & redundancies
Amalgamation of local government authorities
 

charley

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Joined
Apr 3, 2009
Messages
1,247
A few bombs,a few dead politicians, the assassination of at least one IMF official,Gardai in old PSNI landrovers in barricaded stations,no co-operation with the courts or revenue.
A second civil war?
 


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