IMF Herald the Beginning of Recovery

grafter1

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Joined
Apr 1, 2010
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829
Obviously there is a hell of a lot going on and the Irish people are worried, confused even frightened.

However i want to focus on what this all means and the positives that can and will come from this. Firstly the 4 year plan will stand. This means that the cuts we've been hearing about over the past few months will be implemented. Obviously there will be a lot of pain for people in this but if it can be done in a reasonably fair manner i believe we can get through it.

Secondly the people will in the new year have the general election that this country craves. There will be a new government installed and despite the IMF loan this government will decide where the necessary future cuts fall.

Thirdly i strongly believe that the Irish private sector is seriously primed for growth. If the EU/IMF can properly recapitalize our banks then i believe that serious private sector job growth will occur. Our competitiveness has improved dramatically and exports are flying.

Fourthly it is very likely that social partnership is now a thing of the past. This is good for everyone including public sector workers. The union leaders have always been a part of the problem in this country.

Fifthly the huge wage bill of the public sector will be addressed through redundancies, pay cuts (especially at the top) and efficiencies. We can no longer pay ourselves 50% more than our European peers just because we are Irish.

Anyway having suspected that this day would come i just wanted to make the point that this is the beginning of the recovery because the EU/IMF will properly address the real issues. The politicians were incapable of doing this.

I believe this is a turning point for the better for this country. We have a lot going for us and we cannot forget this.

After this OP i think i'd better log off for a while!!
 


johnfás

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Feb 22, 2007
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Thirdly i strongly believe that the Irish private sector is seriously primed for growth. If the EU/IMF can properly recapitalize our banks then i believe that serious private sector job growth will occur. Our competitiveness has improved dramatically and exports are flying.
You are ignoring the enormous burden of commercial debt.
 

grainne whale

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Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
554
Obviously there is a hell of a lot going on and the Irish people are worried, confused even frightened.

However i want to focus on what this all means and the positives that can and will come from this. Firstly the 4 year plan will stand. This means that the cuts we've been hearing about over the past few months will be implemented. Obviously there will be a lot of pain for people in this but if it can be done in a reasonably fair manner i believe we can get through it.

Secondly the people will in the new year have the general election that this country craves. There will be a new government installed and despite the IMF loan this government will decide where the necessary future cuts fall.

Thirdly i strongly believe that the Irish private sector is seriously primed for growth. If the EU/IMF can properly recapitalize our banks then i believe that serious private sector job growth will occur. Our competitiveness has improved dramatically and exports are flying.

Fourthly it is very likely that social partnership is now a thing of the past. This is good for everyone including public sector workers. The union leaders have always been a part of the problem in this country.

Fifthly the huge wage bill of the public sector will be addressed through redundancies, pay cuts (especially at the top) and efficiencies. We can no longer pay ourselves 50% more than our European peers just because we are Irish.

Anyway having suspected that this day would come i just wanted to make the point that this is the beginning of the recovery because the EU/IMF will properly address the real issues. The politicians were incapable of doing this.

I believe this is a turning point for the better for this country. We have a lot going for us and we cannot forget this.

After this OP i think i'd better log off for a while!!
It will be interesting to see if you will be of the same opinion this time next year. Somehow I doubt it.
 

ppcoyle

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Joined
Oct 11, 2010
Messages
1,995
Obviously there is a hell of a lot going on and the Irish people are worried, confused even frightened.

However i want to focus on what this all means and the positives that can and will come from this. Firstly the 4 year plan will stand. This means that the cuts we've been hearing about over the past few months will be implemented. Obviously there will be a lot of pain for people in this but if it can be done in a reasonably fair manner i believe we can get through it.

Secondly the people will in the new year have the general election that this country craves. There will be a new government installed and despite the IMF loan this government will decide where the necessary future cuts fall.

Thirdly i strongly believe that the Irish private sector is seriously primed for growth. If the EU/IMF can properly recapitalize our banks then i believe that serious private sector job growth will occur. Our competitiveness has improved dramatically and exports are flying.

Fourthly it is very likely that social partnership is now a thing of the past. This is good for everyone including public sector workers. The union leaders have always been a part of the problem in this country.

Fifthly the huge wage bill of the public sector will be addressed through redundancies, pay cuts (especially at the top) and efficiencies. We can no longer pay ourselves 50% more than our European peers just because we are Irish.

Anyway having suspected that this day would come i just wanted to make the point that this is the beginning of the recovery because the EU/IMF will properly address the real issues. The politicians were incapable of doing this.

I believe this is a turning point for the better for this country. We have a lot going for us and we cannot forget this.

After this OP i think i'd better log off for a while!!
I agree completely. If all of the above comes to pass the level of debt is manageable. During the 1980's we were the most indebted nations in the world on a per capita basis and with good management of the country from the late 1980's to the early 2000's we reduce our per capita debt to low levels.
 

typical

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Joined
Jul 8, 2010
Messages
575
Well, that's an interesting pro's column but I think you're grasping at straws to find a positive spin.

I don't see how you can say in one breath that the new government will call the shots on where the cuts fall and in the next that the IMF/EU will sort out the public sector pay bill. I don't really see why the lending policies of the banks will be adjusted either, if the IMF/EU want to be sure of getting their money back they'll want the banks to be conservative in their lending policies, not speculative. Why would the banks be more liberal when lending money?
 

cozzy121

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Joined
May 26, 2009
Messages
5,117
If you consider that OP to be "FF b*llsh*t" you clearly have an IQ of zero.

Best of luck to you

Just for the record - never ever voted FF never will in my life
My apologies, I’m sorry to equate you to ff or to their supporters, but your OP brought up all the memories of the pronouncements of the past decade which are now proven to have been nothing more than b*llsh*t. from ff.
We are now to look forward to a decade or more of low growth, high unemployment and emigration, our best and brightest will leave, how can you not understand that?.
Any new government will have to fight tooth & nail to pass any policies to sort out ff mess of the economy, because it will be a coalition and subject to breaking up.
The Private Sector capital that you feel is primed for investment will head offshore as it did throughout the 1980’s.
Though you hate them, the public sector worker will still have to be paid, which will become increasingly difficult as the economy is trapped in a spiral of hiking taxes to pay for bailing out the bankers.

It’s time for some realism, not bertie ahern-esqe notions about this county.
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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Joined
Aug 23, 2009
Messages
16,885
There is nothing good about the IMF. They are parasites and are simply evil.

They have just €200 to €300 Billion left in their kitty. That's not enough for the carnage ahead (Portugal, Greece (again), Spain, Italy, UK, Japan and the US). Praise be.
 

Sucker Punch

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Joined
Apr 29, 2008
Messages
1,556
I agree completely. If all of the above comes to pass the level of debt is manageable. During the 1980's we were the most indebted nations in the world on a per capita basis and with good management of the country from the late 1980's to the early 2000's we reduce our per capita debt to low levels.

You forget that we were also recieving monies for infrastructure projects
from the EU at this piont, also we had a cheap labour force for FDI to set up, along with our own currency. Such growth was enevitable as a result.

The same growth cannot be expected bar circumstances which I have overlooked.
 

gayguy2000

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Joined
May 5, 2010
Messages
295
Do our PS really get 50% more than European counterparts? Do people just want PS wages slashed 40% or whatever across the board? Or higher cuts as you go up the pay scale?
 

Edo

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Joined
May 12, 2007
Messages
3,040
Obviously there is a hell of a lot going on and the Irish people are worried, confused even frightened.

However i want to focus on what this all means and the positives that can and will come from this. Firstly the 4 year plan will stand. This means that the cuts we've been hearing about over the past few months will be implemented. Obviously there will be a lot of pain for people in this but if it can be done in a reasonably fair manner i believe we can get through it.

Secondly the people will in the new year have the general election that this country craves. There will be a new government installed and despite the IMF loan this government will decide where the necessary future cuts fall.

Thirdly i strongly believe that the Irish private sector is seriously primed for growth. If the EU/IMF can properly recapitalize our banks then i believe that serious private sector job growth will occur. Our competitiveness has improved dramatically and exports are flying.

Fourthly it is very likely that social partnership is now a thing of the past. This is good for everyone including public sector workers. The union leaders have always been a part of the problem in this country.

Fifthly the huge wage bill of the public sector will be addressed through redundancies, pay cuts (especially at the top) and efficiencies. We can no longer pay ourselves 50% more than our European peers just because we are Irish.

Anyway having suspected that this day would come i just wanted to make the point that this is the beginning of the recovery because the EU/IMF will properly address the real issues. The politicians were incapable of doing this.

I believe this is a turning point for the better for this country. We have a lot going for us and we cannot forget this.

After this OP i think i'd better log off for a while!!
+1000 - well done for having the nuts to post this at a time when P.ie is being over-run by millenarians and the like.

like yourself - I believe this is now the beginning of the end - the adults are re-entering the play-room and now,finally, the mess is going to be properly addressed and the clean-up begun - we, via our politicians, have proved incapable of addressing this.

Now that the economic agenda will be off the table for the next 4-5 years or so - maybe the population and the political classes of this country take the opportunity to look at thinking about serious political reform from the top down and many other issues like planning, our health services etc etc.

The economic paralysis over the last 2 years has done nobody any favours - after being made redundant 2 years ago and being on off the dole for the bones of a year and a half -Im now self employed with 2 part-time employees in a small export business - which I started up with the 6 grand i had left from my statutory redundancy - it can be done folks - desperation is the mother of invention and all that...........

But the biggest thing we need now, like the bond markets- is a degree of short to medium term certainty - the IMF and ECB will put down a firm plan for the next while - we'll know exactly what we have to pay and what we'll be left with - once people know that - economic life can resume again

it wont be easy - this is second time in 30 years FF have brought us to edge of bankruptcy - in the 80s - Garrett Fitzgeralds gov was advised by the IMF and EC and that continued up to the early 90s and it is no coincidence that that tough period was when the foundations for our export driven economy were laid - we , as a nation, appear determined to prove Winston Churchills maxim about exhausting all other options before we finally do the right thing - with a little help and persuasion from others.

I say this as a fully paid up member of FG who will be doing his damndest to get FF out at the next election and put FG's policies of public sector reform, political reform before the electorate - there is a choice.

Lets make the most of the opportunities that will be provided by this "hopefully" brief period of adult supervision and that we are ready and mature enough to take back our "sovereignty" licence when we come out of this.

I'd had it with the bitching, blaming, woo woo end of the world and OTT juvenile nonsence that seems to make up 80% of the posts in this place for the last while - besides Im thankfully very busy in the real world.
 

MsAnneThrope

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Apr 8, 2009
Messages
1,807
Thirdly i strongly believe that the Irish private sector is seriously primed for growth. If the EU/IMF can properly recapitalize our banks then i believe that serious private sector job growth will occur. Our competitiveness has improved dramatically and exports are flying.
I'd worry whether we've really learned that you cannot build an economy based largely on construction/property. Pretty much all the same people who cheerled the bubble are still in place in the banks, government, CIF and other vested interest groups, and there's nothing more those idiots would like to do than pump 10s of additional borrowed billions in 'to get property market going again', at the expense of other indigenous industries and start-ups. 'I don't accept that, shur it'll be different this time'.

In 15-20 years time are we going to find ourselves with billions of extra national debt, some new shiny buildings here and there, and a new generation of unemployed builders on lengthening dole queues?

As a nation I think we're still at least one generation away from overcoming our obsession with land and property, and all the ensuing bad practices and corruption that obsession attracts. We need a new Government to steer us in a different direction. I don't think Fianna Fáil know anything else. I thought Kevin Myers summed them up nicely earlier this month:

Yes, sure, Fianna Fail might well come an electoral cropper in Donegal, and again in the General Election, but we know where they stand in the longer run; where they always do, outside the council planning office, whistling Boolavogue, with planning applications for 20 cowshed-sized bungalows on the monastic sites at Glendalough and Gougane Barra, and a job for your kids on the QT. And, of course, somewhere down the line, ruination once again.
Tom Parlon and his merry brigade must be salivating at the prospect of our banks having 10s of billions to loan out again shortly. They'd vote Bob the Builder for Taoiseach.

To get back to your OP our obsession with land and property must be tackled or any economic recovery will be yet another extra-expensive mirage, destined to end in tears again.
 

goosebump

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Joined
May 23, 2008
Messages
4,940
I'm happy the IMF are here. Are you?

I've been listening to the Commentariat telling me that this is terrible, ignominious day for our country.

That may be true if you have put a lot of value on lofty ideals like sovereignty, nationhood and have a misty eyed view of various events that occured in our history at the beginning of the 20th century.

However, if like me, you live in the present, and are more concerned about the quality and extent of your freedoms rather than who provides them, today is a good day.

Why? Because over the next couple of years, key economic decisions in this country will no longer be made by people who are more concerned about the narrow political impact of those decisions than that actual impact they will have on society.

Instead, they will be made by people who have long experience of getting the best possible return for a finite set of resources without having to worry about how they are perceived politically.

For instance, our Health budget will now be allocated in a way that provides the best level of care to the most people, rather than in a way that ensures that as many hayseed politician as possible have a reasonable chance of being re-elected.

If this dispassionate and objective approach is applied to every aspect of fiscal management in this country, we will, after a short and painful period of adjustment, be left with a solid and depoliticised foundation on which to build a more productive and efficient public sector, which will cost a fraction of what it used to cost when it was designed for political purposes.
 

Brehon

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Jul 16, 2010
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458
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www.irishliberalparty.org
Back in eighties there were about 200,000 state employees with pop of about 3.5 million.
Now we have 325,000 state employees with population of 4m
Ratio was high in 80's, will have to go back down to 200,000. Can't pay for staff on credit card forever, govn's don't seem to understand this and neither do people?
 
G

Gimpanzee

Yes, have to say I'm a bit relieved. I just hope we can learn from this, but I fear that we won't and we'll just continue as before on into the future.
 

lobby

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Messages
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For instance, our Health budget will now be allocated in a way that provides the best level of care to the most people, rather than in a way that ensures that as many hayseed politician as possible have a reasonable chance of being re-elected.
While I do hope the IMF will impose necessary cuts that FF didn't have the balls to do, I don't think their remit will include "providing the best level of care to the most people". Their job is to re-shape the economy so it can best repay any loans it receives. Maybe the HSE will improve, but if it does, it'll be a happy side-effect rather than an intentional aim.
 
Joined
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Thanks be to God. Now if only they had brought a few machine guns with them...........
 


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