IMF - World economy at risk of another financial crash


robut

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The warning is from the IMF Global Financial Stability report

World economy at risk of another financial crash, says IMF - GUARDIAN

The world economy is at risk of another financial meltdown, following the failure of governments and regulators to push through all the reforms needed to protect the system from reckless behaviour, the International Monetary Fund has warned.

With global debt levels well above those at the time of the last crash in 2008, the risk remains that unregulated parts of the financial system could trigger a global panic, the Washington-based lender of last resort said.
A dramatic rise in lending by the so-called shadow banks in China and the failure to impose tough restrictions on insurance companies and asset managers, which handle trillions of dollars of funds, are highlighted by the IMF as causes for concern.
PLEASE READ THE WHOLE ARTICLE FOR FULL CONTEXT .. these are just snippets, cant paste whole article :D

AND:

3/10/18: Dumping Ice bags into Overheating Reactor: Bonds & Stocks Bubbles

Let's circle back: monetary policy madness of the past has been holding court in bond markets and stock markets, pushing mispricing of risks to absolutely astronomical highs. We have just added to that already risky equation fiscal policy push for more mispricing of risks in equity markets.

This is like dumping picnic-sized bags of ice into the cooling system to run the reactor hotter. And no one seems to care that the bags of ice are running low in the delivery truck... You can light a smoke and watch ice melt. Or you can run for the parking lot to drive away. As an investor, you always have a right choice to make. Until you no longer have any choices left.
SO .. PROJECT FEAR? .. Nothing to see here folks?

OR are these warning signs that we should take heed of?
 

hammer

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Good program on BBC this week about the collapse of RBS.

Fascinating.

Some people are just THICK.
 
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US Debt levels are unsustainable.

Russia / China moving away from using $ to settle trade hence less need to hold US Treasuries.

Russia offloaded $150 billion in treasuries with $50 done this year.

Likely China will start doing the same and it has $1100 billion.
 

hammer

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When it comes.............just cancel all your direct debits to Banks.

Sorted.
 

hammer

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Any sign of any banks incentivising people to pay down trackers more quickly ?
 

Jack Walsh

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I am not in the business of predictions of stock markets or even growth cycles, but I know out of control greed when I see it, and Wall St to me right now looks like it learned nothing 10 years ago.
The level of discourse on business channels is now back to mid 2000's
Little or no caution, just stock pumping and back slapping to beat the band

I also have a massive issue with the impact of company share buy backs
I think they are a total sham and play a very big part in current stock market performance.

Never forget the main players on Wall St, while undoubtedly very smart, are amoral, unethical and above else greedy beyond your wildest dreams.
They don't sit around fretting "oh God, could this happen again, we better safeguard"
Not a chance, they want to make a few 100 million and retire by 50 to the Hamptons with their 30 year old trophy wife.
The world can burn to the ground after that, they don't care.

In Trump, however we have the biggest problem of all.
He simply will not countenance any measures to cool things, including bully the FOMC into not raising states
He is an economic imbecile who believes in flat earth stuff that you can have 8% growth yet keep 1.5% interest rates in perpetuity and pump it all harder by borrowing another few trillion to fund tax cuts.
He will also wave through any measures and unwind existing (anaemic) safeguards to curb greed taking over again, to ensure the party stays fizzing while he is in office

And like the Wall st sociopaths, providing the crash happens after he has left office, he will not only not give a damn, he will brazenly maintain it was because he wasn't in charge.

Stop watching stocks, watch the bond yield, and watch house data (property has been cooling for all of 2018, remember property falls in 2006 were the John the Baptist precursor for the 2007-2008 calamityy)
 

puffin

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I am not in the business of predictions of stock markets or even growth cycles, but I know out of control greed when I see it, and Wall St to me right now looks like it learned nothing 10 years ago.
The level of discourse on business channels is now back to mid 2000's
Little or no caution, just stock pumping and back slapping to beat the band

I also have a massive issue with the impact of company share buy backs
I think they are a total sham and play a very big part in current stock market performance.

Never forget the main players on Wall St, while undoubtedly very smart, are amoral, unethical and above else greedy beyond your wildest dreams.
They don't sit around fretting "oh God, could this happen again, we better safeguard"
Not a chance, they want to make a few 100 million and retire by 50 to the Hamptons with their 30 year old trophy wife.
The world can burn to the ground after that, they don't care.

In Trump, however we have the biggest problem of all.
He simply will not countenance any measures to cool things, including bully the FOMC into not raising states
He is an economic imbecile who believes in flat earth stuff that you can have 8% growth yet keep 1.5% interest rates in perpetuity and pump it all harder by borrowing another few trillion to fund tax cuts.
He will also wave through any measures and unwind existing (anaemic) safeguards to curb greed taking over again, to ensure the party stays fizzing while he is in office

And like the Wall st sociopaths, providing the crash happens after he has left office, he will not only not give a damn, he will brazenly maintain it was because he wasn't in charge.

Stop watching stocks, watch the bond yield, and watch house data (property has been cooling for all of 2018, remember property falls in 2006 were the John the Baptist precursor for the 2007-2008 calamityy)
Agree totally, which would be your lifeboat of choice.
 

Volatire

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13,372
Stock market Price-to-Earnings ratio is 21 today.

It was 116 in January 2009. It was 46 in November 2001.

It is hard to argue that a stock market crash is inevitable at these levels, but that won't stop imbeciles from doing so.
 

gatsbygirl20

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Dec 1, 2008
Messages
22,792
I am not in the business of predictions of stock markets or even growth cycles, but I know out of control greed when I see it, and Wall St to me right now looks like it learned nothing 10 years ago.
The level of discourse on business channels is now back to mid 2000's
Little or no caution, just stock pumping and back slapping to beat the band

I also have a massive issue with the impact of company share buy backs
I think they are a total sham and play a very big part in current stock market performance.

Never forget the main players on Wall St, while undoubtedly very smart, are amoral, unethical and above else greedy beyond your wildest dreams.
They don't sit around fretting "oh God, could this happen again, we better safeguard"
Not a chance, they want to make a few 100 million and retire by 50 to the Hamptons with their 30 year old trophy wife.
The world can burn to the ground after that, they don't care.

In Trump, however we have the biggest problem of all.
He simply will not countenance any measures to cool things, including bully the FOMC into not raising states
He is an economic imbecile who believes in flat earth stuff that you can have 8% growth yet keep 1.5% interest rates in perpetuity and pump it all harder by borrowing another few trillion to fund tax cuts.
He will also wave through any measures and unwind existing (anaemic) safeguards to curb greed taking over again, to ensure the party stays fizzing while he is in office

And like the Wall st sociopaths, providing the crash happens after he has left office, he will not only not give a damn, he will brazenly maintain it was because he wasn't in charge.

Stop watching stocks, watch the bond yield, and watch house data (property has been cooling for all of 2018, remember property falls in 2006 were the John the Baptist precursor for the 2007-2008 calamityy)
That is very interesting

Totally agree about the young wolves of Wall St

Why would they "learn the lessons of the past"?

They are mostly young, and the past is another country

What they have learned from the past is that you need a huge firewall of personal dosh when the place starts burning

And you need to amass that dosh quickly during the good times, by whatever means possible

Also alas probably true about Trump.
 
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www.merrionstreet.ie
The warning is from the IMF Global Financial Stability report

World economy at risk of another financial crash, says IMF - GUARDIAN





PLEASE READ THE WHOLE ARTICLE FOR FULL CONTEXT .. these are just snippets, cant paste whole article :D

AND:

3/10/18: Dumping Ice bags into Overheating Reactor: Bonds & Stocks Bubbles



SO .. PROJECT FEAR? .. Nothing to see here folks?

OR are these warning signs that we should take heed of?
The world economy never recovered from the crash of 2008.

We just delayed the inevitable with talk of recovery and growth. Not one red cent of the debt of Ireland, UK, Europe, America etc has been repaid. When it comes down again there will be no more options other than an almighty collapse that will make the great depression look like childs play.

We could and should have fixed it, but greed, selfishness and shortsighted politicians could only think of the next election. If you were sensible you have already made provisions for the collapse, if you haven't it's not too late.

Time to stock up folks, There's a storm coming.
 

Socratus O' Pericles

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'tis the nature of things.
 

Jack Walsh

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How the banks ignored the lessons of the crash | Joris Luyendijk | Business | The Guardian

Well worth a read. The Masters of the Universe in the financial services industry don't look too masterly after you have read this.
They are incredibly clever people in the main, but greed overrides it, and always will.
Also, some of the smartest people I have ever met, were in turn delinquent and compulsive gamblers who frequently allowed a trip switch to override every sensible thing they ever learned in maths or science.

I would guess also the impact of cocaine in the past 40 years has played a huge, if unmeasured part in the greed fuelled bubbles.
ie
Very smart people believing they are invulnerable despite flashing sirens everywhere to the dangers.

Look at Trump economic advisor Larry Kudlow, a total drip with an annoying whiny speaking voice
Yet he was completely hooked on cocaine in 1980's and 1990s
If a dweeb like that was up to his gills on coke, what where the flash harry bling floor traders and hedge fund boys on?

Oceans of it, coz I saw it
I simply could not believe the hours these guys were working in NY and London and simultaneously partying, I simply couldn't do it.

When a large portion of the World Financial markets is being driven daily by an army of unscrupulous coke heads, why would any one be surprised at an ongoing cycle of boom and bust

The safeguards that were put in place were anaemic due to banker pressure, now even those anaemic ones are being torn to shreds by Trump admin (I'd imagine genuine wealth obsessed sociopaths like Mnuchin and Ross in the vanguard)
 

Volatire

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Joined
Feb 25, 2012
Messages
13,372
They are incredibly clever people in the main, but greed overrides it, and always will.
Also, some of the smartest people I have ever met, were in turn delinquent and compulsive gamblers who frequently allowed a trip switch to override every sensible thing they ever learned in maths or science.

I would guess also the impact of cocaine in the past 40 years has played a huge, if unmeasured part in the greed fuelled bubbles.
ie
Very smart people believing they are invulnerable despite flashing sirens everywhere to the dangers.

Look at Trump economic advisor Larry Kudlow, a total drip with an annoying whiny speaking voice
Yet he was completely hooked on cocaine in 1980's and 1990s
If a dweeb like that was up to his gills on coke, what where the flash harry bling floor traders and hedge fund boys on?

Oceans of it, coz I saw it
I simply could not believe the hours these guys were working in NY and London and simultaneously partying, I simply couldn't do it.

When a large portion of the World Financial markets is being driven daily by an army of unscrupulous coke heads, why would any one be surprised at an ongoing cycle of boom and bust

The safeguards that were put in place were anaemic due to banker pressure, now even those anaemic ones are being torn to shreds by Trump admin (I'd imagine genuine wealth obsessed sociopaths like Mnuchin and Ross in the vanguard)
[video=youtube;-hJQ18S6aag]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-hJQ18S6aag&feature=youtu.be[/video]
 
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