• Due to a glitch in the old vBulletin software, some users were "banned" when they tried to change their passwords at the end of February. This does not apply after the site was converted to Xenforo. If you were affected by this, please contact us.

Ireland South - 2019

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,163
We have loads of threads for the Dáil constituencies, even though we have no idea when the election will be, but at the moment, we do know that the next European elections will be on May 24th.

What we can't be certain of is what boundaries will be used and how many MEPs per constituency, as this is dependent on the unknown outcome of the UK's Brexit process, but let's assume that they do leave and that South gains an extra seat and also Laois and Offaly.

The questions become, where does the extra seat go?, and how does the constituency resolve itself geographically?

The current spread of MEPs (Cork, Bandon, Macroom, Killarney) is already surprising and you would have to think that the extra seat would be won in either Limerick or South Leinster.

Fianna Fáil have been spreading news about candidates, with Malcolm Byrne from Gorey apparently favoured for the ticket along with "a female candidate from the Cork City or county area"

Fianna Fáil to run new candidate for MEP Brian Crowley's seat | Irish Examiner


The latter of these is a bit of a stretch though. They have two female councilors and one female TD in Cork. One of the councilors is retiring, and neither the remaining councilor (Mary-Rose Desmond) or the TD (Margaret Murphy-O'Mahony) look convincing. Plus we also here that sitting TDs are not going to be allowed to run.

In the meantime, we find that Séamus McGrath (brother of Michael McGrath and former County Cork Mayor) is looking for the nomination.

Former County Mayor considering Euro MP run

He is a much more suitable candidate than Desmond as seen from his vote-getting performance in the same LEA.

An open question is what will Brian Crowley do. Despite his pitiful performance in recent years, he will still get votes if he runs as an Independent, and those are likely to be Fianna Fáil votes.

There's a long way to go, but my gut feeling on this is either
FG 2 FF 2 SF 1
or
FG 2 FF 1 SF 1 Ind/Small Party 1
 


Verhofstadt

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 7, 2007
Messages
6,037
Website
********************
With Crowley out of the mix I think there is a lot to play for.

If Labour or Greens get a strong candidate they could challenge (like Alan Kelly before he lost the run of himself!)

It's a huge constituency

How will Malcolm Bryne, who is on the liberal side of most policies go down with the more conversative noises coming out of FF constituencies (look at the number of FF TDs who were anti abortion for instance)

Will a Mattie McGrath style conservative indo get any trajection (Kathy Sinnott mark II?)
 

Verhofstadt

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 7, 2007
Messages
6,037
Website
********************
Sorry, I assumed Crowley won't run.. surely he can't?
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,163
Never assume anything with Crowley if it can be overcome with a thick neck...

Regarding Byrne, I think FF will vote FF regardless, unless there is a genepool Independent to vote for, so for them geography will be the dominant issue. A Cork-South Leinster split would be good. They could run a Limerick candidate, but a three-way split would be too risky at current support levels.

Really, the destination of four seats is decided (in terms of party if not candidate). The question is whether the second FF candidate can stay ahead of the Lab/Green/Ind candidates once transfers start happening. What FF don't need is someone from that pool gathering a bit of momentum. If, like last time, the Lab, Green and leading Ind come in around the 4% mark, with smaller Inds below, there's no hope for them. But if one takes 8% on first preferences, there may be some hope of hauling them in, especially if FG exceed 32%.
 
Last edited:

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,163
One thing that has occurred to me on this is that for the last seat, a lot will depend on Labour's intentions.

What is their aim?

Maximise their vote to appear revived? A good way could be to run three candidates to pick up geographical votes.

Minimize expenditure to concentrate on the locals? Then throw down the name of a future Dáil candidate. They won't win but it boosts profile. Maybe a former TD from one of the underrepresented parts of the constituency (Ann Phelan, John Whelan, Michael McNamara) would be a good option in this scenario.

Try to actually win a seat? Fine, but a big name candidate would be needed They can't risk any of their four TDs, so who else? The only name I can think of who is big enough to cause a stir is Dick Spring, but even though he is still only 68, I presume he is totally retired from politics now.
 

cricket

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 7, 2009
Messages
13,786
My understanding is that Crowley will not be running, heard from a FF source.
 

Marcos the black

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 3, 2009
Messages
18,458
Will Peter Casey run here? His highest percentage votes as far as I'm aware was in Tipperary and Limerick
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,163
My understanding is that Crowley will not be running, heard from a FF source.
He's not going to be a FF candidate, but even they don't seem to know if he may chance it as an Independent
 

cricket

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 7, 2009
Messages
13,786
He's not going to be a FF candidate, but even they don't seem to know if he may chance it as an Independent
I know that, but he still has strong links with them in the Bandon area. It was from there I was told.
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,163
Will Peter Casey run here? His highest percentage votes as far as I'm aware was in Tipperary and Limerick
I think Limerick County was actually third after Roscommon-Galway.

He also had some very weak areas in Ireland South. Cork South Central was his worst result in the country away from the east coast and he didn't get stellar polling anywhere along the south coast.

Overall he did better in Midlands-NorthWest and he only had two weak results there (Cavan-Monaghan which is Gallagher's home turf and Louth [not sure why but Duffy had his best result there]). It would seem more obvious to run there as he can also present as a local candidate. I suppose he might do something crazy like run in two constituencies. But all that depends if he wants it; unlike the Presidential Election, where he was never going to win, he could well find himself elected as an MEP.
 

Degeneration X

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 14, 2017
Messages
7,044
Will Peter Casey run here? His highest percentage votes as far as I'm aware was in Tipperary and Limerick
He seems to have his sights set on The Dail whether he wants to have a go at the EP first is another matter - he'd relish a chance to be in front of a National Audience at the televised debates though.
 

PO'Neill

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 1, 2011
Messages
12,189
Website
www.facebook.com
I know that, but he still has strong links with them in the Bandon area. It was from there I was told.
Are Labour going to run a candidate ?
 

PBP voter

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 18, 2015
Messages
9,133
He seems to have his sights set on The Dail whether he wants to have a go at the EP first is another matter - he'd relish a chance to be in front of a National Audience at the televised debates though.
Yep.

Him and a running mate will take two seats in Donegal.
 

Fr. Ted Crilly

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 11, 2018
Messages
5,084
He seems to have his sights set on The Dail whether he wants to have a go at the EP first is another matter - he'd relish a chance to be in front of a National Audience at the televised debates though.
Casey wouldn't last a week in Dail Eireann.
 

ymmek

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 2, 2007
Messages
3,045
One thing that has occurred to me on this is that for the last seat, a lot will depend on Labour's intentions.

What is their aim?

Maximise their vote to appear revived? A good way could be to run three candidates to pick up geographical votes.

Minimize expenditure to concentrate on the locals? Then throw down the name of a future Dáil candidate. They won't win but it boosts profile. Maybe a former TD from one of the underrepresented parts of the constituency (Ann Phelan, John Whelan, Michael McNamara) would be a good option in this scenario.

Try to actually win a seat? Fine, but a big name candidate would be needed They can't risk any of their four TDs, so who else? The only name I can think of who is big enough to cause a stir is Dick Spring, but even though he is still only 68, I presume he is totally retired from politics now.
McNamara or Sheila Nunan are the names mentioned even though Nunan does not live in munster,she is ambitous and now turning her attention to politics.
 

PO'Neill

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 1, 2011
Messages
12,189
Website
www.facebook.com

PBP voter

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 18, 2015
Messages
9,133
:roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao:
You always ovestimated SF chances.

:)


FFS Donegal people voted in a candidate on the issue of watching British TV.


Casey will have no problem getting these clowns to vote for him.

:) :).:)
 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top