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Ireland South - 2019

locke

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Remember that the UK may yet be taking part in the EU elections so we have to revert back to the old constituencies and seating.
A nice headache for party selections.

However, whether four or five, I feel FG will run three, FF will run two and small parties will run one. The dilemma is for Sinn Féin, who may be tempted towards running a second candidate, but I suspect they will go for one. Obviously, if you are a politician of any colour from Laois or Offaly and you are considering running, it's a major issue.
 


Fr Dougal

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Oct 20, 2018
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Regardless, there would still be a sufficient SF vote for one seat, whether it is a four or five-star ultimately.
Assuming the Nationalist candidates transfer to Sinn Fein.
 

locke

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It's hard to see Sinn Féin coming below 15%. In a five seat that's a certainty. In a four seat, the only way they don't get one is if FG and FF both poll above 30% and get their vote split perfect. In practice, with FG likely to run three, in a scenario where there was a FG 30+%, FF 30+%, SF 15% split, FG could well lose out, unless the 30+% took them into the mid 30s.
 

Fr Dougal

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It's hard to see Sinn Féin coming below 15%. In a five seat that's a certainty. In a four seat, the only way they don't get one is if FG and FF both poll above 30% and get their vote split perfect. In practice, with FG likely to run three, in a scenario where there was a FG 30+%, FF 30+%, SF 15% split, FG could well lose out, unless the 30+% took them into the mid 30s.
You are assuming that the Casey vote was a once off.
 

locke

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He’s not going to stand in Ireland South. Somebody else could try to tap into the same message, but the Presidential Election wasn’t taken very seriously, when the victor was known from the start.
 

Fr Dougal

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He’s not going to stand in Ireland South. Somebody else could try to tap into the same message, but the Presidential Election wasn’t taken very seriously, when the victor was known from the start.
Irexit and The National Party will be running candidates.
I am guessing that they will get much of that vote and doubt that the former Sinn Feiners will transfer back.
There is an opening for Anti-EU, anti-2040 etc candidates.
 

locke

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Irexit and The National Party will be running candidates.
I will pretty much guarantee you that they won't do better than FG, FF, SF and even Labour. In fact, you can probably throw the Greens into that mix too.

There is an opening for an Independent candidate. After all, Munster/Ireland South has been represented over the years by Pat Cox, Kathy Sinnott and TJ Maher, but that candidate will have to have a profile before the election just as Maher (IFA President), Sinnott (Disability Rights Campaigner) and Cox (TD and TV Presenter) did. So unless you can put a name to an Independent candidate, I can't take them seriously.
 

locke

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Anyway in actual news about the constituency, Brian Crowley will not be a candidate.
 

jacko

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Even at this stage you can mark off seats for

Kelly (FG)
Kelleher (FF)
NiRiada (SF)

the fourth seat will probably go to FG - Clune or their third candidate - 5 years ago Simom Harris outpolled Clune but she passed him on transfers. Her profile has been stronger than i would have thought and I'll cautiously call the seat for her

The final seat . . . .?

between the second FF, McNamara for Labour (has Clare and mid west to himself and strong media performer), O'Sullivan for the Greens (Greens will do much better than anticipated right across Europe) and whoever the independent to come out of the woodwork is
 

Jim Car

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Out of interest are there an real anti establishment candidates declared. By real I mean anti eu/eurosecptic ect.
 

locke

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Even if he is FG and they are genepool FF, a Healy-Rae run could really hurt Kelly, especially if FG have a strong third candidate from South Leinster. They will attract Kerry voters and rural voters - Kelly's bread and butter.

I think Clune will be fairly comfortable. FG are higher in the polls than last time; she's been easily the most visible of the Cork-based candidate (until Ní Ríada's catastrophic Presidential run); FG are polling well nationally.

Diarmuid O'Flynn may target the anti-establishment vote again and he did relatively well last time. However, he's not in such a good position. National debt forgiveness, his main policy, has fallen off the radar as the economy improves and he has lost profile by becoming and assistant to Ming; he's not around locally as much and he isn't a prominent newspaper columnist.

There are Independents who could poll very well. If someone like Vicky Phelan ran on a health platform, she would probably take a seat, but given her health situation, it would be hard to think that she would want to.

But that's the fun with Independents. You never know if anyone prominent is considering it.
 

SPN

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Out of interest are there an real anti establishment candidates declared. By real I mean anti eu/eurosecptic ect.
You mean populist shytehawk.



There are Independents who could poll very well. If someone like Vicky Phelan ran on a health platform, she would probably take a seat, but given her health situation, it would be hard to think that she would want to.
.
By all accounts Vicky's immune system is doing a number on the cancer and she is getting better.

But I can't see her running for the EUParl as it has no relevance to the things (fcvkwittery and incompetence) she wants to see addressed in the HSE and Department.

There may be merit in her running for the Seanad next time out, but she can be much more effective outside the tent píssing in.
 

freewillie

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Feb 3, 2013
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Surely one of the Healy-Rae clan will have a run at it?
Surely an ability to speak English or one of the main continental languages would be required
 

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