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Ireland South - 2019

lostexpectation

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IDENTITY IRELAND
Peter O'Loughlin

Theresa Heaney Ind

Walter Ryan-Purcell ?Ind Walter Ryan-Purcell

IDENTITY IRELAND Peter O'Loughlin

Liam Minehan Ind
Dolores J. Cahill Irexit listed as non-party

16 candidates so far
 
Last edited:


locke

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As a hypothetical question, let's say that one of the TDs who is running gets the fifth seat, but Brexit hasn't happened, what happens then?

Do they still forfeit their seat in the Dáil upon election, or do they retain until the point they enter the European Parliament?
 

Hitchcock

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As a hypothetical question, let's say that one of the TDs who is running gets the fifth seat, but Brexit hasn't happened, what happens then?

Do they still forfeit their seat in the Dáil upon election, or do they retain until the point they enter the European Parliament?
I don't know for certain but I'd imagine they remain as a TD until they take up the European seat, if that comes to pass. What would be really interesting is if there is a GE before that happens - will they stand in the GE given that they may be going to Europe a few months later - might be difficult to convince people to vote for you.
 

lostexpectation

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jmcc

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and theres mick wallace Home and Colleen Worthington and Peter Madden Allan J Brennan
Wallace's candidacy raises the complexity of projections. I'm not so sure that it will impact SF as much as a second seat for either FF and or FG. (Big 3 model voting pattern.)
 

MsDaisyC

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the secretary

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Wallace's candidacy raises the complexity of projections. I'm not so sure that it will impact SF as much as a second seat for either FF and or FG. (Big 3 model voting pattern.)
Surely he will be fishing outa the same left pool as the shinner candidate.
 

SweenyTodd

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Wallace's candidacy raises the complexity of projections. I'm not so sure that it will impact SF as much as a second seat for either FF and or FG. (Big 3 model voting pattern.)
He isn't the poll topper he once was in the Wexford Constituency.
 

Round tower

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As a hypothetical question, let's say that one of the TDs who is running gets the fifth seat, but Brexit hasn't happened, what happens then?

Do they still forfeit their seat in the Dáil upon election, or do they retain until the point they enter the European Parliament?
Would think they would remain a TD till after Brexit, if their is a GE they would have to decide either wait for Brexit or stand in the GE, if they were elected a TD and then Brexit happened they would have a decision to make. Stay as a TD and let their subitute take the MEP seat or resigne as a TD taking up their MEP seat causing a by election for the Dail seat. Dail numbers, if they were a minister or a minister of state or in a BE what would the chances of your party retaining your seat would all come into play.
 

locke

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Surely he will be fishing outa the same left pool as the shinner candidate.
Also the same pool as Diarmuid O'Flynn, who seems to be running again.

O'Flynn did well last time, but he's not as prominent as at the last election, as he's moved on from being a GAA journalist, the Ballyhea Says No protests don't have any attention any more, and the issue of bank debts has receded as the economy has improved.
 

Round tower

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It's something that will happen in the 3 European consticuences, will the venue where the votes for the ES consticuencey be also the venue for that county local elections counts. The votes for the NW EC will be counted in the TF Hotel in Castlebar but the votes for the local election counts aare being counted inthe TF as wellat the same time, one proposell made by a Mayo CC is that the votes for each of the EA be counted in their own area. it seems that in the days of the different urban councils the votes were counted in their own UC area.
 

Frank Miller

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Any sign of Bunty Truntingdon McFluff? Herself and Gemma O Doherty could be the dream team
 

midlander12

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It's something that will happen in the 3 European consticuences, will the venue where the votes for the ES consticuencey be also the venue for that county local elections counts. The votes for the NW EC will be counted in the TF Hotel in Castlebar but the votes for the local election counts aare being counted inthe TF as wellat the same time, one proposell made by a Mayo CC is that the votes for each of the EA be counted in their own area. it seems that in the days of the different urban councils the votes were counted in their own UC area.
Actually, I think the locals will be counted on Saturday and the Euro count cannot start until Sunday night on the somewhat unlikely grounds that the results here (or in the UK!) might affect voters' judgement on the continent.
 

Dame_Enda

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Mick Wallace hasn't ruled out running.
 

locke

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When I was away, there seems to have been a poll for Ireland South

Seán Kelly (FG) 18%
Liadh Ní Riada (SF) 14%
Billy Kelleher (FF) 13%
Deirdre Clune (FG) 10%
Malcolm Byrne (FF) 10%
Andrew Doyle (FG) 9%
Mick Wallace (Ind) 8%
Sheila Nunan (Lab) 5%
Grace O'Sullivan (Grn) 5%

I tend to take constituency polls with a pinch of salt as I have seen some big inaccuracies over the years.

However, from this
- FG will be safe for two, but the identity of the second candidate is open to question. Clune did better on transfers last time out, but this time there are a lot of votes in the Wexford/Wicklow area below Doyle. Having said that, a lot could be stranded in 6th place with either Byrne or Wallace there.
- SF will be happy. There were questions over how Ní Riada would do after her awful performance in the Presidential Election, but she could drop more than the margin of error and still get elected, considering what's below.
- With assorted left-wing candidates below, and potentially larger transfers from the Greens and Labour, Wallace looks well-placed for the last seat ahead of Byrne, but a change of 1% for either could change that assessment (hence why I don't like constituency polls).
- Labour and The Greens will be disappointed. What's more, there's no Soc Dem, so the performance is underwhelming. However, if either could get a swing of 2 points or so in the last couple of weeks, they could be competitive for the last spot.

Having said that, I don't think FG have 37% support, unless Kelly is bringing in a lot of personal votes. And I also think FF are above 23%
 

Brera

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When I was away, there seems to have been a poll for Ireland South

Seán Kelly (FG) 18%
Liadh Ní Riada (SF) 14%
Billy Kelleher (FF) 13%
Deirdre Clune (FG) 10%
Malcolm Byrne (FF) 10%
Andrew Doyle (FG) 9%
Mick Wallace (Ind) 8%
Sheila Nunan (Lab) 5%
Grace O'Sullivan (Grn) 5%

I tend to take constituency polls with a pinch of salt as I have seen some big inaccuracies over the years.

However, from this
- FG will be safe for two, but the identity of the second candidate is open to question. Clune did better on transfers last time out, but this time there are a lot of votes in the Wexford/Wicklow area below Doyle. Having said that, a lot could be stranded in 6th place with either Byrne or Wallace there.
- SF will be happy. There were questions over how Ní Riada would do after her awful performance in the Presidential Election, but she could drop more than the margin of error and still get elected, considering what's below.
- With assorted left-wing candidates below, and potentially larger transfers from the Greens and Labour, Wallace looks well-placed for the last seat ahead of Byrne, but a change of 1% for either could change that assessment (hence why I don't like constituency polls).
- Labour and The Greens will be disappointed. What's more, there's no Soc Dem, so the performance is underwhelming. However, if either could get a swing of 2 points or so in the last couple of weeks, they could be competitive for the last spot.

Having said that, I don't think FG have 37% support, unless Kelly is bringing in a lot of personal votes. And I also think FF are above 23%
I’d be a bit sceptical of Kelly getting 18% on the day but having said that he 12.7% on the day the last time. So who knows. I suspect it’s more to do with the fact that he probably has the highest name recognition on the list, and has spent the last 5 years going to the opening of every envelope in the constituency.

Clune and Doyle are basically within the margin of error of what Clune and Harris got the last time. Doyle is a far weaker candidate than Harris was the last time. If he can poll similar to Clune on the day and be transfer friendly if / when Wallace and Byrne get eliminated he could take a seat ahead of her.

Clune was only 4,500 votes ahead of Harris in the very end last time and she did get 4,000 odd votes from Crowley’s surplus. So it may end up being a real battle between Clune and Doyle for the second FG seat.

I’m guessing it will end up being 1 FG, 1SF and 1 FF. FG should take the 4th seat and the final seat could be anyone’s. On a really good day FG might manage to scrape 3, but I suspect it will more than likely end up being a battle between Byrne and Wallace
 

midlander12

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I’d be a bit sceptical of Kelly getting 18% on the day but having said that he 12.7% on the day the last time. So who knows. I suspect it’s more to do with the fact that he probably has the highest name recognition on the list, and has spent the last 5 years going to the opening of every envelope in the constituency.

Clune and Doyle are basically within the margin of error of what Clune and Harris got the last time. Doyle is a far weaker candidate than Harris was the last time. If he can poll similar to Clune on the day and be transfer friendly if / when Wallace and Byrne get eliminated he could take a seat ahead of her.

Clune was only 4,500 votes ahead of Harris in the very end last time and she did get 4,000 odd votes from Crowley’s surplus. So it may end up being a real battle between Clune and Doyle for the second FG seat.

I’m guessing it will end up being 1 FG, 1SF and 1 FF. FG should take the 4th seat and the final seat could be anyone’s. On a really good day FG might manage to scrape 3, but I suspect it will more than likely end up being a battle between Byrne and Wallace
Yes and I would say Wallace is the favourite because it will be Lab/Green transfers which will decide it. I see very little chance of FG getting 3. In any event, we are talking here about the 5th seat which only comes into play if Brexit happens i.e. probably never. Otherwise definitely FG 2, FF1 and SF 1 unless the poll is very far out.
 


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