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Ireland warned property slump looming

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davidcochrane
The Irish property market faces an “abrupt” downturn at the end of next year and not the soft landing predicted by the Government, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned yesterday.

It issued one of the strongest warnings yet about the overdependence of the economy on construction.

It also raised serious concerns about the spiralling levels of personal debt and continuing increases in the cost of houses. - Irish Examiner
 


frankie

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Once again the masters of doom and gloom are at it .These Economists have been predicting the great fall for the last ten years ,every week you listen to them on radio and TV predicting disasters in the economy .Its the old story that if you keep saying something often enough you will be right eventually.

Its time someone took on these doom merchants and expose them every time their predictions are wrong .

Ireland is still one of the fastest growing economys in Europe 100% employment and one of the highest rates of home ownership inthe world most familys have two or three cars ,everybody has access to third level Education etc etc and these dam economists are trying to still upset us.
 

Dee Four

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The The Irish Times reads the report somewhat differently.


The Irish Times said:
An "abrupt correction" to the property market cannot be ruled out, it says, although the contraction of the construction sector is likely to be smooth.
Strangely enough, Fine Gael seem intent on focusing on the recommendations for prudent government spending, but are silent on the recommended property tax.
 

rockofcashel

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frankie said:
Once again the masters of doom and gloom are at it .These Economists have been predicting the great fall for the last ten years ,every week you listen to them on radio and TV predicting disasters in the economy .Its the old story that if you keep saying something often enough you will be right eventually.

Its time someone took on these doom merchants and expose them every time their predictions are wrong .

Ireland is still one of the fastest growing economys in Europe 100% employment and one of the highest rates of home ownership inthe world most familys have two or three cars ,everybody has access to third level Education etc etc and these dam economists are trying to still upset us.
IMF: But Sir, you're level of personal debt is too high, your economy is too dependent on one sector, inflation is rising, interest rates are rising, your country still lags behind the rest of Europe as regards public infrastructure etc etc etc

FF councillor (or so you claim):



"These dam (sic.) economists are still trying to upset us"
 

frankie

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rockofcashel said:
frankie said:
Once again the masters of doom and gloom are at it .These Economists have been predicting the great fall for the last ten years ,every week you listen to them on radio and TV predicting disasters in the economy .Its the old story that if you keep saying something often enough you will be right eventually.

Its time someone took on these doom merchants and expose them every time their predictions are wrong .

Ireland is still one of the fastest growing economys in Europe 100% employment and one of the highest rates of home ownership inthe world most familys have two or three cars ,everybody has access to third level Education etc etc and these dam economists are trying to still upset us.
IMF: But Sir, you're level of personal debt is too high, your economy is too dependent on one sector, inflation is rising, interest rates are rising, your country still lags behind the rest of Europe as regards public infrastructure etc etc etc

FF councillor (or so you claim):



"These dam (sic.) economists are still trying to upset us"
What is your point ROC. are you agreeing with me by finding another doom merchant .?
 

qtman

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I think we've gone way beyond the point were a soft landing is even possible. There is so much sentiment built into the market now that the slightest wobble will send the investment classes feeling to their estate agents. Then, the building will stop, and all the foreign nationals will head home, leaving a burgeoning hole in the rental market. Rents will fall and suddenly it will be cheap to rent again, dissuading all those ubiquitous 'young couples' from scrambling into the first time buyer market. At that point, we're only a hairs breath away from widespread negative equity.

Market my words; this will be the biggest issue at the polls next June.
 

Pidge

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The Examiner seems to be spinning the report quite a bit.

Here's how The Examiner introduces the article:
THE Irish property market faces an “abrupt” downturn at the end of next year and not the soft landing predicted by the Government, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned yesterday.

Which contrasts somewhat with what the report says. Do a search on the word "abrupt" in the actual report and you'll see what I mean.
 

Sidewinder

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At the minute rents nationally are not enough to cover the mortgage payments, apparently. Rents haven't really moved anywhere in about 4 years now, while prices have rocketed. It's pretty obvious to anyone who can count that this situation can only end one way.

I saw a report on the Interwoogie (can't remember where, sorry!) that some international property dudes had examined the Irish market and concluded that, based on Irish, UK and European historical property price/earnings ratios that Irish property was currently overvalued by somewhere between 30% and 60% :shock:

This is going to make the Japanese bubble look like a minor hiccup.
 

Ponzi

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Some posters obviously believe that a bubble does not exist in the Irish housing market. I am curious to know how you see things panning out for the market and for the wider economy over the next twelve months?
 

Pidge

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Ponzi said:
Some posters obviously believe that a bubble does not exist in the Irish housing market. I am curious to know how you see things panning out for the market and for the wider economy over the next twelve months?
I can't really form an independent opinion, but I can point out how the ESRI say that the "picture emerging for the remainder of 2006 and 2007 is bright". The IMF expect "economic growth in 2006–07 to remain strong, driven by domestic demand and accompanied by a widening current account deficit and continued rapid credit growth. While the contraction of the construction sector to a more sustainable size over the medium term is likely to be smooth", while noting that "an abrupt correction cannot be ruled out."

I've been flicking through these reports and the greatest fear I've seen in these reports is the fear of saying anything definite either way.
 

frankie

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Ponzi said:
Some posters obviously believe that a bubble does not exist in the Irish housing market. I am curious to know how you see things panning out for the market and for the wider economy over the next twelve months?
I am in the process of buying apartment number 6 thats how confident I am in the Irish economy.There is no bubble going to burst,all that exists are a bunch of over educated dimwitted economists who time after time predict doom and gloom.

In saying all that I have said I will admit that there is never a guarentee that things will stay good for ever but our economy is in good hands and even if FG got into power I am confident they could manage it quite well but Trever the terrible scares me.

The only thing that can derail us at the minute is a world war which seems to be developeing between East and West.
 

Pidge

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Johnny said:
I think all this "soft landing" rhetoric is put about by those who have a vested interest in the property boom.
That's unlikely in an IMF report.

frankie said:
...educated dimwitted economists....
Were you waving a hurley about when you wrote that?
 

Pax

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Pidge said:
The Examiner seems to be spinning the report quite a bit.

Here's how The Examiner introduces the article:
THE Irish property market faces an “abrupt” downturn at the end of next year and not the soft landing predicted by the Government, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned yesterday.

Which contrasts somewhat with what the report says. Do a search on the word "abrupt" in the actual report and you'll see what I mean.
Given the appalling prediction record of the IMF ( so much so that money can be made, and is, betting against) then maybe the Examiner is reading it's report the right way around...i.e. vice-versa!


~ Winston Smith 'New, Improved Economy'

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imf#Criticism
 

Pidge

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Pax said:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imf#Criticism
Could you point out the part of that criticism which is relevant to this report or even Ireland in the past five years?
 

Johnny

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Pidge said:
Johnny said:
I think all this "soft landing" rhetoric is put about by those who have a vested interest in the property boom.
That's unlikely in an IMF report.
You posted above:

"The IMF expect "While the contraction of the construction sector to a more sustainable size over the medium term is likely to be smooth", while noting that "an abrupt correction cannot be ruled out." "

The IMF are speaking out of both sides of their greedy mouth here.

I was specifically refering to the government, the legal profession, the banks and the builders - all of whom, through their pandering latchicos in the media, will seek to maintain the facade that all is well in the property mnarket when it so obviously isn't.
 

Pidge

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Johnny said:
You posted above:

"The IMF expect "While the contraction of the construction sector to a more sustainable size over the medium term is likely to be smooth", while noting that "an abrupt correction cannot be ruled out." "

The IMF are speaking out of both sides of their greedy mouth here.

I was specifically refering to the government, the legal profession, the banks and the builders - all of whom, through their pandering latchicos in the media, will seek to maintain the facade that all is well in the property mnarket when it so obviously isn't.
So hang on, do the IMF have a "vested interest" in the Irish property boom? If so, what is it?
 

Johnny

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Pidge said:
Johnny said:
You posted above:

"The IMF expect "While the contraction of the construction sector to a more sustainable size over the medium term is likely to be smooth", while noting that "an abrupt correction cannot be ruled out." "

The IMF are speaking out of both sides of their greedy mouth here.

I was specifically refering to the government, the legal profession, the banks and the builders - all of whom, through their pandering latchicos in the media, will seek to maintain the facade that all is well in the property mnarket when it so obviously isn't.
So hang on, do the IMF have a "vested interest" in the Irish property boom? If so, what is it?
I never said they did. I was merely stating that they are saying nothing of substance here.
 

frankie

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Johnny said:
Pidge said:
Johnny said:
I think all this "soft landing" rhetoric is put about by those who have a vested interest in the property boom.
That's unlikely in an IMF report.
You posted above:

"The IMF expect "While the contraction of the construction sector to a more sustainable size over the medium term is likely to be smooth", while noting that "an abrupt correction cannot be ruled out." "

The IMF are speaking out of both sides of their greedy mouth here.

I was specifically refering to the government, the legal profession, the banks and the builders - all of whom, through their pandering latchicos in the media, will seek to maintain the facade that all is well in the property mnarket when it so obviously isn't.

Dear Johnny
I really hate telling you this but Santa is dead actually he never really existed. Its just like communism a big joke.

Build a bridge Johnny and get over it.capitolism has served the people well in Ireland and in most other countrys and the only BUBBLE bursting at the minute is the communists one
 

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