Ireland warned property slump looming


Golden Phoenix

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US venture capital funds have been able to walk in and cherry pick the property market because of FF policies, Bertie and Biffo bankrupted us.
True. And then Michael Noonan put out a red carpet to give them an additional welcome!

All of this has facilitated the transfer of wealth from ordinary working Irish people to anonymous global "investors".

Well done guys.
 

hammer

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True. And then Michael Noonan put out a red carpet to give them an additional welcome!

All of this has facilitated the transfer of wealth from ordinary working Irish people to anonymous global "investors".

Well done guys.
Dont stress. Cant SF IRA compulsory acquire them when they win GE 2020 ?

Can they not change tax laws also and hammer them ?
 

stanley

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True. And then Michael Noonan put out a red carpet to give them an additional welcome!

All of this has facilitated the transfer of wealth from ordinary working Irish people to anonymous global "investors".

Well done guys.



There was no wealth, borrowings does not equal wealth.

The property market was in freefall it had to be bottomed out, the US venture capital funds smelt blood and went after it, they needed no invitation from Noonan or anyone else, market forces and they kept within the rules/laws.
 

Watcher2

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True. And then Michael Noonan put out a red carpet to give them an additional welcome!

All of this has facilitated the transfer of wealth from ordinary working Irish people to anonymous global "investors".

Well done guys.
Noon an is a toxic treacherous fvckbag, but that said, to what wealth do you refer?
 

hammer

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Growth in asking prices for residential properties is beginning to slow, with Dublin sellers in particular reining in expectations as Central Bank mortgage rules start to take effect, according to a new report from MyHome.ie.

Although the asking prices for properties rose 5.9 per cent in the year to September across the Republic, the most recent quarterly rise was far more subdued at just 0.8 per cent.

The picture in Dublin showed that while asking price have increased 2.5 per cent in the last 12 months, prices actually fell 2.5 per cent in the third quarter compared to the second quarter.

MyHome.ie, the property website owned by The Irish Times, found that as growth in real sales prices is slowing, so too are asking prices. In Dublin, the median asking price for new sales was €375,000 in the third quarter, down €9,000 on the second three months of the year.


Davy chief economist Conall Mac Coille said double-digit price inflation experienced earlier in the year was “simply not sustainable and the slowdown we predicted earlier this year has now materialised”.

“While the magnitude of the drop this quarter may be surprising, some of the quarterly decline may be seasonal, reflecting typically weaker prices at the end of a busy summer trading season,” he added.

The report notes that inflation in asking prices across the State in the last 12 months is at its weakest pace in two years, reflecting a slowdown seen in the Central Statistics Office (CSO) Property Price Index.

Because MyHome’s report looks at asking prices, it offers an earlier snapshot of the market than the Property Price Index, which tracks sale prices.

The slowdown, MyHome says, should be welcomed and means that Central Bank rules restricting the amount a person can borrow are starting to have an effect.


“Not surprisingly, the impact has been felt first in the capital, Dublin,” the report said.

MyHome found the most expensive properties saw the most significant slowdown. The median asking price for a one-bedroom apartment was up 11 per cent in the year, to €200,000, while the median for four-bedroom detached homes was flat at €650,000.

“With jobs and wages growth both exceeding 3 per cent, underlying demand remains exceptionally strong and we expect inflation to equal 8 per cent by December,” Mr Mac Coille said.

The fall in median prices comes amid an increase in supply. “There were 22,658 residential properties listed for sale on MyHome.ie in September, up 6 per cent on last year,” said MyHome managing director Angela Keegan.

“We are also seeing an increase in transaction figures. The Property Price Register indicates that 34,706 properties have been sold so far this year, and we estimate this represents a 6 per cent growth in transaction volumes, although the register is not yet fully up to date. We believe the total figure of transactions for the year will be close to 60,000, which would be an increase of around 9 per cent.”

Declining
Those higher transaction levels mean the average time to go “sale agreed” is declining. Across the State, the timeframe is 3.5 months, down from 3.8 months previously. In Dublin it is steady at 2.9 months, a figure that is consistent with higher transaction levels, according to Ms Keegan.

In the three-bed semi-detached category, Galway, Sligo and Kilkenny all recorded decreases in asking prices quarter-on-quarter. The most significant fall was in Kilkenny, with a drop of 2.91 per cent. The highest quarterly rise, meanwhile, was in Limerick, where median asking prices rose by 6.85 per cent. On the year, prices for three-bed properties in Limerick have increased 24.6 per cent. No county recorded a fall compared to the same period last year.



Good stuff.

2.5% growth pa would be excellent
 

hammer

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Ballymore Group’s founder Seán Mulryan, one of the highest-profile developers s to come through the property crash, has warned that surging construction costs pose “the biggest risk” as the Republic grapples with a housing crisis.

In an interview with The Irish Times, Mr Mulryan said he expected build cost inflation to run at between 7 per cent and 10 per cent in each of the next two years.

“Because there aren’t enough tradesmen, they’re going to call the tune – and, by the way, builders’ suppliers are just going to go for it, too,” said Mr Mulryan, whose group exited the National Asset Management Agency in late 2015 after repaying €3.2 billion in gross borrowings. “That’s the biggest risk going forward for development in Ireland.”

The Construction Industry Federation estimates that apprenticeships in the Republic have fallen from about 27,000 during the boom to about 3,000. It says that about 5,000 a year need to be signed up to meet demand.

Meanwhile, shares in publicly-quoted homebuilders Glenveagh Properties and Cairn Homes have fallen by more than 17 per cent and 13 per cent, respectively, since mid-July, partly on concerns about rising Irish construction costs.


7% - 10% inflation in each of the next 2 years.

Ouch..............slowdown in builds ?
 

hammer

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"The double-digit price inflation we experienced earlier this year was simply not sustainable and the slowdown we predicted earlier this year has now materialised. While the magnitude of the drop this quarter may be surprising, some of the quarterly decline may be seasonal, reflecting typically weaker prices at the end of a busy summer trading season."

myhome.ie report.

Good article if anyone wants to download.
 

Golden Phoenix

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When you see a truly shoebox 1 bedroom apartment in Finglas priced at a quarter of a million euros you can be certain this situation is heading for disaster - AGAIN.
 

hammer

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When you see a truly shoebox 1 bedroom apartment in Finglas priced at a quarter of a million euros you can be certain this situation is heading for disaster - AGAIN.
What idiots are buying these ?

Wait.............. the collapse cant be far away.

10% growth..............stagnation.......................increases supply.................... and then...............
 

stanley

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says former Central Bank governor - Independent.ie


What Patrick forgets to say or leaves out is the role of bonuses to bankers.

These were given out freely by way of shares in the banks themselves, this did not cost the banks any money they just issued new paper/shares at will and were allowed to do it almost unregulated.

Banks were also lending monies to their employees to buy shares at a discount to buy their own shares, to any banker this was a penalty kick in front of the posts and you could have as many kicks as you wanted.

Banks pension funds then bought other financial shares like a little circle, all benefit, their own little club and all the time gathering fees, charges, they had the goose laying golden eggs - daily.
 

Innocent Bystander

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You do realise the population has risen by a few hundred thousands since FG came to power:roll:
There are many Irish people who would like to return but cannot afford it; there is an entire thread listing all of the complications which arise. Don't even get me started on house prices.
 

Voluntary

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Ballymore Group’s founder Seán Mulryan, one of the highest-profile developers s to come through the property crash, has warned that surging construction costs pose “the biggest risk” as the Republic grapples with a housing crisis.

In an interview with The Irish Times, Mr Mulryan said he expected build cost inflation to run at between 7 per cent and 10 per cent in each of the next two years.

“Because there aren’t enough tradesmen, they’re going to call the tune – and, by the way, builders’ suppliers are just going to go for it, too,” said Mr Mulryan, whose group exited the National Asset Management Agency in late 2015 after repaying €3.2 billion in gross borrowings. “That’s the biggest risk going forward for development in Ireland.”

The Construction Industry Federation estimates that apprenticeships in the Republic have fallen from about 27,000 during the boom to about 3,000. It says that about 5,000 a year need to be signed up to meet demand.

Meanwhile, shares in publicly-quoted homebuilders Glenveagh Properties and Cairn Homes have fallen by more than 17 per cent and 13 per cent, respectively, since mid-July, partly on concerns about rising Irish construction costs.


7% - 10% inflation in each of the next 2 years.

Ouch..............slowdown in builds ?
Construction costs accelerate all over Europe and my estimate is that unless the government does something serious here we will see a significant slowdown in construction output very, very soon.
 

hammer

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Construction costs accelerate all over Europe and my estimate is that unless the government does something serious here we will see a significant slowdown in construction output very, very soon.
Agreed. Possible cost inflation of 21% over next two years.

Will they reduce the Vat on new builds or vat on materials ?
 

Voluntary

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Normally in the long run, such situation would lead to a collapse in the land value, to a point where construction is again viable.
In the real world though we'll likely see some kind of government intervention to keep 'the patient' alive as long as possible.

One thing the government could do without investing money (which it doesn't have) is releasing land. Release land to release some air from the baloon. Controlled devaluation in place of an uncontrolled burst.
 

hammer

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A special savings scheme to help first-time buyers is being considered as part of Budget 2019, the Irish Independent can reveal.

Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe is examining how such a scheme might work on foot of demands from Fianna Fáil. The initiative would see house hunters entitled to open a savings account for their deposit which the Government would top up with a generous donation when they go to buy a house.

Sources in both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil confirmed the idea is a real prospect with just five days until the Budget.

A similar scheme in the UK, called the 'Help To Buy ISA', pays an interest rate of 25pc.

This means for every £200 (€225) saved, the government adds £50 up to a maximum of £3,000.



Today on Independent.ie

Great another SSIA :tongue:
 

Golden Phoenix

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How about Ireland has the most dysfunctional property market in the world?

You can fool some of the people some of the time............
 

HarshBuzz

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How about Ireland has the most dysfunctional property market in the world?

You can fool some of the people some of the time............
In the whole world? That's quite the claim. Been in Sydney lately?

One thing which I think might be uniquely Irish is our devotion to property as an asset class. Give the average Paddy 500k to invest and his first reaction is 'buy property'. If we were more mature in our investment choices, our property market would exhibit far less dysfunction.
 
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