Ireland warned property slump looming


commonman

Well-known member
Joined
May 29, 2010
Messages
5,357
Dont worry if there is a downturn as our politicians like to call it, we will be saved again by the IMF, European Commission, ECB = Troika the best government we ever had.
 

DJP

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 2, 2006
Messages
12,193
Website
darrenjprior.blogspot.ie
A recession is two quarters of "negative economic grote"

A depression is a prolonged period of recession.
.
I believe a depression is a retraction in the economy of 10% of more. This occurred in Ireland between circa mid-2008 and 2010 and was less afterwards. I am just trying to get the years right for when we were in a depression as opposed to a recession.
 

SPN

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 2, 2004
Messages
16,764
I believe
Oh dear.


a depression is a retraction in the economy of 10% of more.
A depression is whenever negative grote continues for a prolonged period. Not sure that the amount of negative grote is specified.

As you can see from the chart above, we didn't have negative grote of 10% in any quarter.


.
This occurred in Ireland between circa mid-2008 and 2010 and was less afterwards.
What quarterly GDP numbers are you using to get that 10% negative grote figure?


I am just trying to get the years right for when we were in a depression as opposed to a recession.
It is worth noting that a) one should never use GDP numbers for anything in relation to Ireland as our economy is structured completely differently from most economies so GDP is a nonsensical metric, and b) the starting figure for 2007 is totally distorted by economic activity generated by the banking ponzi scheme of 2002-2007.
 

SPN

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 2, 2004
Messages
16,764
Dont worry if there is a downturn as our politicians like to call it, we will be saved again by the IMF, European Commission, ECB = Troika the best government we ever had.
Not quite.

In 2008 we had €40 Billion of debt.

Today we have more than €200 Billion of debt.

In another downturn our debt:GDP ratio will go totally out of sync and we will not be able to borrow at all.

We'll be like Greece was in 2009 - decades of lining the pockets of the insiders with borrowed money, and no appetite for austerity (living within your means) among those same insiders.
 

DJP

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 2, 2006
Messages
12,193
Website
darrenjprior.blogspot.ie
Oh dear.




A depression is whenever negative grote continues for a prolonged period. Not sure that the amount of negative grote is specified.

As you can see from the chart above, we didn't have negative grote of 10% in any quarter.


.


What quarterly GDP numbers are you using to get that 10% negative grote figure?




It is worth noting that a) one should never use GDP numbers for anything in relation to Ireland as our economy is structured completely differently from most economies so GDP is a nonsensical metric, and b) the starting figure for 2007 is totally distorted by economic activity generated by the banking ponzi scheme of 2002-2007.
Dan O'Brien said in an article in the last couple of months that a depression is when there is a contraction of 10% and I think he said that this happened in one or both years 2009/2010.
 

DJP

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 2, 2006
Messages
12,193
Website
darrenjprior.blogspot.ie
Here's the article smart aleck. From rereading the quote in general I think he means that the whole period was a depression and not just in 2009/2010. So can anyone tell me, if the Irish economic depression started in 2008 what year it ended in? :

"Ireland suffered more after the crash than most peer economies because it endured a double whammy: the multiple consequences of the international crisis and the collapse of a hugely inflated domestic credit bubble. Whereas most other European countries had deep recessions, Ireland experienced a depression, defined as a contraction in the economy of 10pc or more (from peak to trough, GDP declined by 13pc and employment by 16pc)."

A decade on, have lessons of economic crash been learnt? - Independent.ie
 

stanley

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 20, 2007
Messages
9,163
Not quite.

In 2008 we had €40 Billion of debt.

Today we have more than €200 Billion of debt.

In another downturn our debt:GDP ratio will go totally out of sync and we will not be able to borrow at all.

We'll be like Greece was in 2009 - decades of lining the pockets of the insiders with borrowed money, and no appetite for austerity (living within your means) among those same insiders.


And FF are hanging around in the wings ready to resurrect the Celtic Tiger and burst the State again.
 

SPN

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 2, 2004
Messages
16,764
Here's the article smart aleck. From rereading the quote in general I think he means that the whole period was a depression and not just in 2009/2010. So can anyone tell me, if the Irish economic depression started in 2008 what year it ended in? :

"Ireland suffered more after the crash than most peer economies because it endured a double whammy: the multiple consequences of the international crisis and the collapse of a hugely inflated domestic credit bubble. Whereas most other European countries had deep recessions, Ireland experienced a depression, defined as a contraction in the economy of 10pc or more (from peak to trough, GDP declined by 13pc and employment by 16pc)."

A decade on, have lessons of economic crash been learnt? - Independent.ie
Have you any other source who uses the same definition that Dan uses?

All other sources I am familiar with regard a Depression as a prolonged Recession.


We had negative grote of about 10% in 2009 vs 2008, and we had about 8 quarters of negative grote in 2008-2009


The big issue that Dan alludes to, but ignores, is the fact that so much of the grote after 2002 was bogus.

Whenever the banks stopped lending, and the economy reset to the level of economic activity that the productive economy was generating, we found oursel's back at 2003 levels.


If you ignore the bogus grote generated by these here bank ponzi schemes, then the negative grote after the ponzi scheme stalled is irrelevant.

Just stick to what was going on in the real economy, and ignore the racketeering in the banks, the public sector and the "social partners".
 

SPN

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 2, 2004
Messages
16,764
And FF are hanging around in the wings ready to resurrect the Celtic Tiger and burst the State again.
The SF/FF Government of 2020-2022 will be a thing to behold.

The Money Fairy will be dialled up to 11.
 

raetsel

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 5, 2017
Messages
6,687
Once again the masters of doom and gloom are at it .These Economists have been predicting the great fall for the last ten years ,every week you listen to them on radio and TV predicting disasters in the economy .Its the old story that if you keep saying something often enough you will be right eventually.

Its time someone took on these doom merchants and expose them every time their predictions are wrong .

Ireland is still one of the fastest growing economys in Europe 100% employment and one of the highest rates of home ownership inthe world most familys have two or three cars ,everybody has access to third level Education etc etc and these dam economists are trying to still upset us.
These old threads can sometimes give you a good laugh. Almost 13 years later, I can't help but wonder whatever happened to Frankie, the master clairvoyant.:roflmao:
 

RelentlessApathy!

Active member
Joined
Feb 16, 2018
Messages
129
I am in the process of buying apartment number 6 thats how confident I am in the Irish economy.There is no bubble going to burst,all that exists are a bunch of over educated dimwitted economists who time after time predict doom and gloom.

In saying all that I have said I will admit that there is never a guarentee that things will stay good for ever but our economy is in good hands and even if FG got into power I am confident they could manage it quite well but Trever the terrible scares me.

The only thing that can derail us at the minute is a world war which seems to be developeing between East and West.
Claimed to be an FF councillor as well...you couldn't make it up...well you could...which is why FF need to be kept in their box. Pity the other parties fall so short in doing this.
 

Voluntary

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 8, 2015
Messages
2,870
Dublin house prices correction accelerates according to the CSO's report published today.
1.6% drop in one month, 2.8% drop in 3 months (Dublin - all residential properties).
Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown - houses have been hit the most, with -1,8% monthly change and -3,0% change over 3 months.

Nationally 0.4% prices drop in one month, 0.8% drop in 3 months.

Residential Property Price Index January 2019 - CSO - Central Statistics Office
 

ergo2

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 4, 2008
Messages
14,242
Claimed to be an FF councillor as well...you couldn't make it up...well you could...which is why FF need to be kept in their box. Pity the other parties fall so short in doing this.
But did not Enda admit that "we all partied"?
Some of the more OTT re-zoning decisions, against the advice of the planners, was pushed thru' by FG councillors
 

RelentlessApathy!

Active member
Joined
Feb 16, 2018
Messages
129
But did not Enda admit that "we all partied"?
Some of the more OTT re-zoning decisions, against the advice of the planners, was pushed thru' by FG councillors
Ask generation rent if they partied. As for FG being greasy cúnts...your point being? Were FG councillors running the government at the time, was it their budget decisions that led to a WHOOPING ENTIRE 20% of the Irish economy being non gnp generating construction sector?

Try as you might, it wasn't de lehmans that left Ireland's ass out in the cold when the storm came.
 

toughbutfair

Well-known member
Joined
May 28, 2009
Messages
9,739
Of course property prices will drop at some stage , as will stock market prices. Nobody knows when or by how much. Considering the cost of rent is at an all time high, it is impressive that lending rules has resulted in property prices being 20-25% below peak.

As long as lending rules are not relaxed , and maybe made tighter , then things should be okay when the next recession comes.
 

toughbutfair

Well-known member
Joined
May 28, 2009
Messages
9,739
I bought an apartment in Barcelona a few years ago, part of me regrets not buying another one in Dublin instead as the yields are a lot better here , however I just see too many risks to our economy to have all my eggs in this basket. Considering Munich for my next one. Doing my research .
 

shiel

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 14, 2011
Messages
16,801
The big issue that Dan alludes to, but ignores, is the fact that so much of the grote after 2002 was bogus.

Whenever the banks stopped lending, and the economy reset to the level of economic activity that the productive economy was generating, we found oursel's back at 2003 levels.


If you ignore the bogus grote generated by these here bank ponzi schemes, then the negative grote after the ponzi scheme stalled is irrelevant.

Just stick to what was going on in the real economy, and ignore the racketeering in the banks, the public sector and the "social partners".
Both government expenditure and bank lending roughly tripled in the decade up to 2009.

That was unchallenged by either media or academia.

Great Irish media quotes from around 2002 as follows.

'Every day and in every way things are getting better and better'.

'There is virtually no downside'

'The only sector of the public service where there will be a reduction in overall numbers is in the opposition'.

'Opposition as appetising as contracting the Ebola virus'.
 

mr_anderson

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 12, 2007
Messages
10,038
We're definitely in a rental bubble.
Few Irish rent in the city centre now.
It's out of their reach.
Classic bubble telltale sign right there - when the natives can't afford it, beware.

Consequently, people who buy property based on current rents may find themselves coming up short when it pops.
 

shiel

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 14, 2011
Messages
16,801
We're definitely in a rental bubble.
Few Irish rent in the city centre now.
It's out of their reach.
Classic bubble telltale sign right there - when the natives can't afford it, beware.

Consequently, people who buy property based on current rents may find themselves coming up short when it pops.
The consequences of the collapse and the bailout in 2010 will be with us for a long time yet.
 
Top