Ireland's Brexit Strategy: make Brexit terms so harsh, that the Brits will abandon Brexit.

Hans Von Horn

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250,000 Irish jobs are supported by the Irish Food Industry, and 41% of it's output is exported to the UK. The food sector is particularly exposed to tariffs, that are likely to apply under WTO (World Trade Organisation) Rules in the event that tariffs are triggered at the EU's instance when Brexit occurs, with the UK leaving the EU.

The average tariff under WTO rules is 3.5% with half of goods and services such as Financial Services, & Software, under WTO rules. Machinery & Cars are levied at 10% rates under WTO, while food and agricultural products are levied at an average of 25% under WTO.

Ireland is particularly exposed to the tariff problem, with the prospect of tariffs being imposed on exports to the UK in the event that the EU will not concede free trade to the UK on triggering Brexit. The British wish to continue with free trade but the EU wishes to charge for access to it's market.

In the event of there being no trade treaty, post Brexit,UK exports to the EU-27 could expect to suffer tariff costs in the region of £5.2 billion, but the corresponding exports from the EU-27 to the UK would face costs in the region of £12.9 billion. Civitas: Institute for the Study of Civil Society Mitigating the impact of tariffs on UK-EU trade

Examples of the WTO tariffs that would apply include:
Dairy produce 39.9%
Meat 32.3% where as live animals would only attract a rate of 5.5%
Sugar and Confectionary is liable at 30.2%
Products of milling are liable at 25.2%
see table 9 page 40 http://www.civitas.org.uk/content/files/mitigatingtheimpactoftariffs.pdf

Brexit without a trade deal would be catastrophic for the Irish Food Industry, and would be compounded by a weakening Sterling making Irish Exports uncompetitive. A lot of the non FDI sector would be wiped out.

The Government's response has not been to plead to the EU Partner / Masters, that Hard Brexit would wipe us out, but instead to suggest we would have to find new markets and reduce our ties with the UK. Huge emphasis has been placed on a decision, of the UK's deal or fate being made by the 27 remaining members.

The Irish Government and establishment are encouraging the EU partners to play hardball with the UK to prevent or derail Brexit. That is the strategy. In other words the EU Masters are to decide our fate, and make cannon fodder of us in a trade war with the Rebel Brits.

In the context of the profile of British Exports to the EU, the balance of trade pertaining, and the likely net £5.2 billion advantage to the UK on tariffs, alone with a further saving of circa £3.5 billion in net contributions to the EU budget.

The British have by far the better hand in the negotiations.
 


between the bridges

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Build that wall...
 

Trainwreck

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250,000 Irish jobs are supported by the Irish Food Industry, and 41% of it's output is exported to the UK. The food sector is particularly exposed to tariffs, that are likely to apply under WTO (World Trade Organisation) Rules in the event that tariffs are triggered at the EU's instance when Brexit occurs, with the UK leaving the EU.

The average tariff under WTO rules is 3.5% with half of goods and services such as Financial Services, & Software, under WTO rules. Machinery & Cars are levied at 10% rates under WTO, while food and agricultural products are levied at an average of 25% under WTO.

Ireland is particularly exposed to the tariff problem, with the prospect of tariffs being imposed on exports to the UK in the event that the EU will not concede free trade to the UK on triggering Brexit. The British wish to continue with free trade but the EU wishes to charge for access to it's market.

In the event of there being no trade treaty, post Brexit,UK exports to the EU-27 could expect to suffer tariff costs in the region of £5.2 billion, but the corresponding exports from the EU-27 to the UK would face costs in the region of £12.9 billion. Civitas: Institute for the Study of Civil Society Mitigating the impact of tariffs on UK-EU trade

Examples of the WTO tariffs that would apply include:
Dairy produce 39.9%
Meat 32.3% where as live animals would only attract a rate of 5.5%
Sugar and Confectionary is liable at 30.2%
Products of milling are liable at 25.2%
see table 9 page 40 http://www.civitas.org.uk/content/files/mitigatingtheimpactoftariffs.pdf

Brexit without a trade deal would be catastrophic for the Irish Food Industry, and would be compounded by a weakening Sterling making Irish Exports uncompetitive. A lot of the non FDI sector would be wiped out.

The Government's response has not been to plead to the EU Partner / Masters, that Hard Brexit would wipe us out, but instead to suggest we would have to find new markets and reduce our ties with the UK. Huge emphasis has been placed on a decision, of the UK's deal or fate being made by the 27 remaining members.

The Irish Government and establishment are encouraging the EU partners to play hardball with the UK to prevent or derail Brexit. That is the strategy. In other words the EU Masters are to decide our fate, and make cannon fodder of us in a trade war with the Rebel Brits.

In the context of the profile of British Exports to the EU, the balance of trade pertaining, and the likely net £5.2 billion advantage to the UK on tariffs, alone with a further saving of circa £3.5 billion in net contributions to the EU budget.

The British have by far the better hand in the negotiations.

I don't think you understand.

The threat isn't one of the UK placing tariffs on Irish food imports. It is the risk that the UK does the intelligent thing and drops all tariffs and non-tariff barriers to food imports.


Same applies with everything else. German car manufacturers are worried about the same thing.
 

Man or Mouse

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We wouldn't have such a weak hand if we had decided after entering the EU in 1973 that it was worthwhile educating our children to speak a European language. We're 43 years in it now and can't even speak Irish as a second language.

Laziness or stupidity?
 

Hans Von Horn

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I don't think you understand.

The threat isn't one of the UK placing tariffs on Irish food imports. It is the risk that the UK does the intelligent thing and drops all tariffs and non-tariff barriers to food imports.


Same applies with everything else. German car manufacturers are worried about the same thing.
The British want free trade, and would only levy tariffs in retaliation to EU tariffs. You would envisage the EU levying circa £12 billion a year on British exports and the British responding by zero rating imports from the EU?

That is not a realistic or logical prospect.
 
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McSlaggart

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The Irish Government and establishment are encouraging the EU partners to play hardball with the UK to prevent or derail Brexit. That is the strategy. In other words the EU Masters are to decide our fate, and make cannon fodder of us in a trade war with the Rebel Brits.

In the context of the profile of British Exports to the EU, the balance of trade pertaining, and the likely net £5.2 billion advantage to the UK on tariffs, alone with a further saving of circa £3.5 billion in net contributions to the EU budget.

The British have by far the better hand in the negotiations.
?? please give us your research to prove this claim. I think the Irish government does not want a hard britexit see below.

"The Irish government’s thoughts on the UK’s Brexit stance and some of its leading proponents were contained in a memo leaked to the Irish Times. The memo, containing some fragmentary clues about the UK’s still undisclosed negotiating position, also highlights the Irish government’s concern about the wider course of the Brexit talks, including the possibility that countries such as France will force through a hard Brexit."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/14/irish-minister-says-brexit-like-uk-trying-to-divorce-and-keep-all-the-assets
 

ruserious

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We wouldn't have such a weak hand if we had decided after entering the EU in 1973 that it was worthwhile educating our children to speak a European language. We're 43 years in it now and can't even speak Irish as a second language.

Laziness or stupidity?
It's embarrassing. Especially when you see the foreign language skills of the average Dutchman. I speak better German than Irish.
 

gleeful

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I don't think you understand.

The threat isn't one of the UK placing tariffs on Irish food imports. It is the risk that the UK does the intelligent thing and drops all tariffs and non-tariff barriers to food imports.


Same applies with everything else. German car manufacturers are worried about the same thing.
If the UK wants to remain in the WTO they cannot unilaterally drop tariffs on some products. Dropping 'non-tariff barriers' would lead to totally unregulated food and car imports (ie. the death of Tory voters) and thats not going to happen.
 

gleeful

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Messages
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250,000 Irish jobs are supported by the Irish Food Industry, and 41% of it's output is exported to the UK. The food sector is particularly exposed to tariffs, that are likely to apply under WTO (World Trade Organisation) Rules in the event that tariffs are triggered at the EU's instance when Brexit occurs, with the UK leaving the EU.

The average tariff under WTO rules is 3.5% with half of goods and services such as Financial Services, & Software, under WTO rules. Machinery & Cars are levied at 10% rates under WTO, while food and agricultural products are levied at an average of 25% under WTO.

Ireland is particularly exposed to the tariff problem, with the prospect of tariffs being imposed on exports to the UK in the event that the EU will not concede free trade to the UK on triggering Brexit. The British wish to continue with free trade but the EU wishes to charge for access to it's market.

In the event of there being no trade treaty, post Brexit,UK exports to the EU-27 could expect to suffer tariff costs in the region of £5.2 billion, but the corresponding exports from the EU-27 to the UK would face costs in the region of £12.9 billion. Civitas: Institute for the Study of Civil Society Mitigating the impact of tariffs on UK-EU trade

Examples of the WTO tariffs that would apply include:
Dairy produce 39.9%
Meat 32.3% where as live animals would only attract a rate of 5.5%
Sugar and Confectionary is liable at 30.2%
Products of milling are liable at 25.2%
see table 9 page 40 http://www.civitas.org.uk/content/files/mitigatingtheimpactoftariffs.pdf

Brexit without a trade deal would be catastrophic for the Irish Food Industry, and would be compounded by a weakening Sterling making Irish Exports uncompetitive. A lot of the non FDI sector would be wiped out.

The Government's response has not been to plead to the EU Partner / Masters, that Hard Brexit would wipe us out, but instead to suggest we would have to find new markets and reduce our ties with the UK. Huge emphasis has been placed on a decision, of the UK's deal or fate being made by the 27 remaining members.

The Irish Government and establishment are encouraging the EU partners to play hardball with the UK to prevent or derail Brexit. That is the strategy. In other words the EU Masters are to decide our fate, and make cannon fodder of us in a trade war with the Rebel Brits.

In the context of the profile of British Exports to the EU, the balance of trade pertaining, and the likely net £5.2 billion advantage to the UK on tariffs, alone with a further saving of circa £3.5 billion in net contributions to the EU budget.

The British have by far the better hand in the negotiations.
I think you are underestimating the damage the UK would suffer in this scenario. There is a major issue for the UK falling back to WTO rules - the UK has no schedules. The EU does on their behalf.

If the UK just reclaims their chair in the WTO without negotiating schedules, they are in uncharted waters and the WTO courts will have to decide if the UK is allowed to trade or not (which will take years). To get schedules, they need the agreement of 170 other countries. Its a nightmare.
 

Hans Von Horn

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I think you are underestimating the damage the UK would suffer in this scenario. There is a major issue for the UK falling back to WTO rules - the UK has no schedules. The EU does on their behalf.

If the UK just reclaims their chair in the WTO without negotiating schedules, they are in uncharted waters and the WTO courts will have to decide if the UK is allowed to trade or not (which will take years). To get schedules, they need the agreement of 170 other countries. Its a nightmare.
Mr Trump will support the UK. He wants them at the front of the Queue. Ditto the English speaking World
 

McTell

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No
250,000 Irish jobs are supported by the Irish Food Industry, and 41% of it's output is exported to the UK. The food sector is particularly exposed to tariffs, that are likely to apply under WTO (World Trade Organisation) Rules in the event that tariffs are triggered at the EU's instance when Brexit occurs, with the UK leaving the EU. ....


They would opt for free trade, and it doesn't help the EU at all if 1% (officials) want to cut off their nose to spite their face, and make the rest of us 99% poorer.

We know the EU official class will be as difficult as possible because 1/8th of the budget is about to disappear.

Plus, the ship is leaking. We see the leftie austrian chancellor saying that austrian workers should be preferred over other eu workers. This is what Cameron was asking for a year ago and was turned down....

Austria wants to hire locals over foreign EU workers | Newstalk

Chancellor Christian Kern made the pledge as his party launched its 10-year economic plan.
The Social Democrat said:
"These eastern European countries are exporting their joblessness to Austria."


 

gleeful

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They would opt for free trade, and it doesn't help the EU at all if 1% (officials) want to cut off their nose to spite their face, and make the rest of us 99% poorer.

We know the EU official class will be as difficult as possible because 1/8th of the budget is about to disappear.

Plus, the ship is leaking. We see the leftie austrian chancellor saying that austrian workers should be preferred over other eu workers. This is what Cameron was asking for a year ago and was turned down....

Austria wants to hire locals over foreign EU workers | Newstalk

Chancellor Christian Kern made the pledge as his party launched its 10-year economic plan.
The Social Democrat said:
"These eastern European countries are exporting their joblessness to Austria."


So you think the EU should give the UK what it demands, whatever that might be?
 
O

Oscurito

Make it compulsory for them to watch one hour of Riverdance, Jedward and Mrs Brown's Boys every day.

*evil laugh*
 

Trainwreck

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The British want free trade, and would only levy tariffs in retaliation to EU tariffs. You would envisage the EU levying circa £12 billion a year on British exports and the British responding by zero rating imports from the EU?

That is not a realistic or logical prospect.


Confirmed, you don't understand.


If the EU place a tariff on UK food imports - that means they are taxing their own citizens and producers who buy British goods. It makes no sense that Britain should respond by punishing their own citizens for buy EU produce. If someone is hitting themselves on the head, you don't make yourself better off by following their lead.


This is basic trade economics. (by the way committing to "free trade" just means, you trade freely with others; not taxing you citizens, and letting foreign governments do whatever they want to their own citizens - something you have no control over anyway)


As I said, the threat is that the UK pursues free trade and cuts all tariffs and non-tariff barriers to everyone. British consumers all of a sudden have access to cheaper food from outside the EU. Our farmers would be fúcked.

At the moment, the customs union ensures that Irish farmers have a hugely advantaged and protected access to the UK market and our greatest competitors are banned or taxed out of competing against us.
 


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