Ireland's difficulty is the Greens' Opportunity

LeDroit

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It would be a widely held belief that the Greens are looking at electoral wipeout à la les PDs at the next GE all other things being equal. So, looking at Ireland's difficulty from a ruthlessly political perspective, could this bailout situation be an opportunity for the Greens?

Currently, the Greens are suffering from FF contagion. They are being blamed simply because they are in govt with FF who 82% of people blame for the clusterf£&k that is Ireland's economy. If they could distance themselves from FF, indeed if they could be seen to castigate and mortally injure FF they would be given enormous kudos initially by the political establishment and then through transfers by the Irish people at the next GE.

So, here's my suggestion. Gormley goes to Enda and offers to withdraw support for Cowen if;

1. Enda takes over but announces a GE will take place in May.
2. Enda commends the Greens patriotism, followed by the leaders of Labour and SF.
3. FG/Lab/Greens bring in a budget. SF agree to abstain.

The result is the Greens get credit for taking out the 11% Taoiseach and the 18% FF who have brought us to the door of the IMF. They can't get blamed for it as they're only there since it went kaboom. The commendation from all the other parties and the Greens continuance in govt until May with FG and Lab will rehabilitate them with the electorate.

The alternative is annihilation thanks to FF contagion. It's last chance saloon for Les Legumes.
 


Cato

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What's to stop Enda immediately holding all outstanding by-elections, getting a majority in the Dáil, and stabbing the Greens in the back?

In any event, I think that it is too late for the Greens. They are riding the Tiger and cannot get off. They are doomed and rightfully so.
 

LeDroit

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What's to stop Enda immediately holding all outstanding by-elections, getting a majority in the Dáil, and stabbing the Greens in the back?
Deal's a deal. Overt announcement. Like the GFA.

In any event, I think that it is too late for the Greens. They are riding the Tiger and cannot get off. They are doomed and rightfully so.
It's not actually. This is an opportunity for them. They have a lifeboat.
 

Speedfreak

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If the Greens are to have a chance of winning back their credibility and integrity, they need to come completely clean - they need to admit straight and clear that they were BOUGHT off...... That they took Fianna Fail's offertories of power and influence and money, that they were allowed make free with, directing it at will at crony green business, at party coffers, at Green stalwarts who had worked for the party for years and who they wanted to give something back to... A full and frank confession on their knees, begging for forgiveness, is their only chance of redemption. Even then, it will be hard.
 

Berty

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The Greens are far too quiet at the moment.

Let's hope that Minister Gormely is considering on pulling the plug so that a general election can take place thereby holding off the IMF for a while, so we can -at least- have a fighting chance in this mess.
 

LeDroit

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What's in it for FG? What's in it for Lab?
What?!

They immediately get into power and are roaring favourites to win the GE in six months. Did you read the OP?!
 

markeys

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Why would any opposition party want to touch the greens?

They've shown themselves to be corrupt and willing to support corruption. Nobody in their right thinking mind would touch them with a barge poll. The incompetence and gombeenism might be contagious from them.

Let them f**k off and sleep in the bed they've made. Hopefully, somewhere in mountjoy soon.
 

Pat Mc Larnon

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It would be a widely held belief that the Greens are looking at electoral wipeout à la les PDs at the next GE all other things being equal. So, looking at Ireland's difficulty from a ruthlessly political perspective, could this bailout situation be an opportunity for the Greens?

Currently, the Greens are suffering from FF contagion. They are being blamed simply because they are in govt with FF who 82% of people blame for the clusterf£&k that is Ireland's economy. If they could distance themselves from FF, indeed if they could be seen to castigate and mortally injure FF they would be given enormous kudos initially by the political establishment and then through transfers by the Irish people at the next GE.

So, here's my suggestion. Gormley goes to Enda and offers to withdraw support for Cowen if;

1. Enda takes over but announces a GE will take place in May.
2. Enda commends the Greens patriotism, followed by the leaders of Labour and SF.
3. FG/Lab/Greens bring in a budget. SF agree to abstain.

The result is the Greens get credit for taking out the 11% Taoiseach and the 18% FF who have brought us to the door of the IMF. They can't get blamed for it as they're only there since it went kaboom. The commendation from all the other parties and the Greens continuance in govt until May with FG and Lab will rehabilitate them with the electorate.

The alternative is annihilation thanks to FF contagion. It's last chance saloon for Les Legumes.

The Greens are just as culpable as FF for the present predicament. The voters would see any bail out by them at this time as the worst type of me feinism. They are heading for obliteration no matter what they do now.
 

redhead101

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...What's in it for Lab?
A wacky idea, that simply doesn't stack up.

Rehabilitating the Greens, even if it were possible, would cost Labour votes for candidates like Brendan Ryan, Alex White, Kevin Humphreys, and Paula Desmond.

Not going to happen.
 

Podolski1.5

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Just be quiet and eat your Greens, and make sure you chew them well first.
 

LeDroit

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owedtojoy

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It would be a widely held belief that the Greens are looking at electoral wipeout à la les PDs at the next GE all other things being equal. So, looking at Ireland's difficulty from a ruthlessly political perspective, could this bailout situation be an opportunity for the Greens?

Currently, the Greens are suffering from FF contagion. They are being blamed simply because they are in govt with FF who 82% of people blame for the clusterf£&k that is Ireland's economy. If they could distance themselves from FF, indeed if they could be seen to castigate and mortally injure FF they would be given enormous kudos initially by the political establishment and then through transfers by the Irish people at the next GE.

So, here's my suggestion. Gormley goes to Enda and offers to withdraw support for Cowen if;

1. Enda takes over but announces a GE will take place in May.
2. Enda commends the Greens patriotism, followed by the leaders of Labour and SF.
3. FG/Lab/Greens bring in a budget. SF agree to abstain.

The result is the Greens get credit for taking out the 11% Taoiseach and the 18% FF who have brought us to the door of the IMF. They can't get blamed for it as they're only there since it went kaboom. The commendation from all the other parties and the Greens continuance in govt until May with FG and Lab will rehabilitate them with the electorate.

The alternative is annihilation thanks to FF contagion. It's last chance saloon for Les Legumes.
Non-starter. Cowen has enough political cunning to go the Park, ask for a dissolution on the grounds that he no longer has a majority in the Dail, and fight the election on an "I was stabbed in the back at a critical moment" platform. He might just whip up enough hysteria to avoid a rout.

The Greens and FG would be stuck with the stigma of unsavoury back-stairs dealing to take/ retain power. Labour might be the gainer.

The Greens would be better to resign from Government en masse, proclaiming that they can no longer sit and let FF lead the country into sh*t. The could pick any issue like Dick Spring picked Brendan Smith. That would force Cowen's hand. Then, the Greens could present themselves as ones who stuck it out as long as they could for the good of the country, until their consciences could no longer be ignored .. etc etc
 

Newffowner

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A question of trust...what's he refering to FF or the electorate

I wouldn't trust them as far as I could throw Danny Boy

Was there any Greens in the Dail when Cowen was waffling last night?
 

LeDroit

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Non-starter. Cowen has enough political cunning to go the Park, ask for a dissolution on the grounds that he no longer has a majority in the Dail,
Cowen can't force an election. He can resign but Enda can then present the president with an alternative govt for the remainder of the Dáil term. Bruton did it when Reynolds went.
 

Mitsui2

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At this stage any government that included the Greens would be tainted in the public mind by their presence. Any incoming government needs to have clean hands, and couldn't afford to have itself associated with these handmaidens of corruption.
 

Baron von Biffo

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What?!

They immediately get into power and are roaring favourites to win the GE in six months. Did you read the OP?!
Firstly, getting into power on terms dictated by half a dozen failures is not the most attractive idea for any party. Secondly, contesting a GE 5 months after harsh budget cuts take hold isn't likely to make them 'roaring favourites' to win.

FG and Lab are up in the polls and both are hoping for gains in the GE. Those gains will include the Green seats. There's no advantage to anyone else in doing anything that might save a single Green seat. Fighting a GE in the near certainty of taking power with a comfortable majority for a full term is a much better proposition than 6 months carrying the corpse of the Greens.

For Lab the idea is even less attractive. Today they would be negotiating a PfG from a position of being less than half the size of FG but after a GE they could be more or less the same size. They wouldn't consider it for a second.
 

Baron von Biffo

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Cowen can't force an election. He can resign but Enda can then present the president with an alternative govt for the remainder of the Dáil term. Bruton did it when Reynolds went.
Reynolds didn't exercise his prerogative of asking the president for a dissolution. While it's true that Cowen can't force an election it would be unprecedented for the president to refuse to dissolve the Dail on the request of the Taoiseach.
 


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