Irish debt 295 Billion - Goldman Sachs

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Just coming up on Twitter


Goldman Sachs estimates sovereign debt, €85 billion; bank bond debt, €80 billion; ECB loans €130 billion. Do the maths

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Philip Boucher-Hayes


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robut

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As I said on TWITTER in response:

"Its going to have to be debt restructuring (a nice way of saying DEFAULT). We cannot afford this nor the billions of interest - Simple!"

Robut
 

MPB

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That is only 85 billion in sovereign debt.

The rest has nothing to do with us.
 

johnfás

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A bank restructuring is inevitable - hence the drastic fall in bank share prices and the confidential nature of EU briefings.
 

robut

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MPB, afraid it does. Our glorious Government joined the bank dept to the sovereign when they guaranteed all back in 08.

Robut
 
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What is personal debt in Ireland? Surely this figure as it becomes un payable due to cuts must be added to the figure also.
 

Tombo

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What is personal debt in Ireland? Surely this figure as it becomes un payable due to cuts must be added to the figure also.
Lending to Irish households was €175 billion as at September.

Note that you can end up double counting if you add the debt of banks to the debt of households - the banks are simply intermediaries.
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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Our external debt is probably up to €1.8 Trillion after all these new loans. Remove IFSC and double counting, the real total debt is probably around €1 Trillion.

Total deposits and M2 money supply is about €180 Billion and plummeting. These figures are supposed to be at parity in a nation.

We need an €800 Billion correction of some sort. There's one for Lennie to spin for us.
 

Squire Allworthy

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A bank restructuring is inevitable - hence the drastic fall in bank share prices and the confidential nature of EU briefings.
But who should be responsible for the cost of bank restructuring? Let them fail. Walk away. It really is that simple but there needs to be a contingency plan in place.


MPB, afraid it does. Our glorious Government joined the bank dept to the sovereign when they guaranteed all back in 08.

Robut
The country will be forced to default and in that case what value is there in the guarantees. Also if the government acting on good faith (that's a big IF) on fallacious information proffered by others for gain then equally what is the standing of such guarantees?
 

powderfinger

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Did Goldman Sachs draw attention to the risk factors involved for the Irish State when advising the Government on the offering of a blanket guarantee in September 2008?
It would be helpful to know either way.
ECB was consulted on bank guarantee scheme - Irish, Business - Independent.ie

The schedule of 50 key documents that have been withheld from the PAC include advices from Attorney General Paul Gallagher on the legal issues arising from Financial Stability Contingency Planning, draft discussion documents prepared by Goldman Sachs regarding strategic options and the state aid implications of the guarantee.
Where did BoucherHayes get the Goldman Sachs estimate from,there is no link with his tweet.
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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Lending to Irish households was €175 billion as at September.

Note that you can end up double counting if you add the debt of banks to the debt of households - the banks are simply intermediaries.
The breakdown is around

Household Debt €200 Billion
Non Financial Company Debt €300 Billion
Financial Corporation Debt (net) €250 Billion
Government Debt €150 Billion

Deposit Savings

Household €85 Billion
Company €95 Billion
Banks and Government probably €0 now.
 

Freedom front

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National debt will be +/- 260 Billion Debt with interest repayments of 12 Billion per year,

National Debt 2010: 160 Billion
Bailout: 100 Billion
Total Debt: 260 Billion

When you consider we are Collecting tax of 31 billion in tax per year, how are we going to pay 12 billion p.a in interest , We cannot afford this , time too default
 

Oldira1

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National debt will be +/- 260 Billion Debt with interest repayments of 12 Billion per year,

National Debt 2010: 160 Billion
Bailout: 100 Billion
Total Debt: 260 Billion

When you consider we are Collecting tax of 31 billion in tax per year, how are we going to pay 12 billion p.a in interest , We cannot afford this , time too default
+1
 

johnfás

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But who should be responsible for the cost of bank restructuring? Let them fail. Walk away. It really is that simple but there needs to be a contingency plan in place.
I agree and it will be an extremely tough decision which will precipitate a further decline in our economy. However, I suspect that decline although more rapid, will recover far quicker than the prospect of lumbering the sovereign with a further load of debt which will probably both place it back in the same situation in the short run and delay growth in the long run.

I believe the only option is a bank resolution scheme whereby we offer a debt for equity swap in the banks. We can't force bondholders to take this option, but the other option is that we walk away and they put the banks into liquidation. If they do that they are even less likely to walk away with a return on their investment so faced with those two choices they would likely accept.

We should seek some sort of scheme which would enable us to sell some of the branch networks and deposit books off to third party investors. This is what is going to happen anyway. The current plan, at least as I see it, is that they will sell off the deposit book and branch networks to new players (Barclays or whatever) who will establish very profitable and clean banks here. This is inevitable and no bad thing - now is a fantastic time to establish a bank here if you can get a banking licence. At the same time all the bad loans will be moved off the balance sheet and bourne by the taxpayer - this is what we must say no to - at least not without a extremely large write down of the debt.
 

MPB

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MPB, afraid it does. Our glorious Government joined the bank dept to the sovereign when they guaranteed all back in 08.

Robut
Not worth the paper it was written on.

They can have all the guarantees they want, they are not getting their money back.

I guarantee it;)
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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The sovereign debt is currently 115bn
Sorry DE, you started a thread on Commercail Paper last week and i never got replying to you. I find it very difficult to access information on this short term debt from the web.

We roll over €160 Billion worth of commercial debt a year. There are 2 types, 1 in Euro denomination and one US Dollar. The Euro program is €50 Billion and the US Dollar is $20 Billion.

I think the net balance is €20 Billion owing and needs to be added to your above figure.

Whatever cash we have in banks (if any) is finally subtracted to give the real net sovereign debt.
 


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