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Irish Election Stats - Probability figure for each candidate


neveragain

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Feb 10, 2011
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4,433
The same in Galway/Roscommon
Naughten and Fitzmorris are shoe ins, a dog fight between FG and FF for the last seat.
 

midlander12

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Jul 29, 2008
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5,643
Longford-Westmeath - I agree Bannon and Troy are shoe-ins, but McFadden at 79% and Penrose at 23% when most would see them both being in trouble, and Boxer at only 29% when most would see him as at least 2/1 to win a seat? Makes no sense - at the very least McF, Penrose, Moran and Hogan are chasing the last two seats and they should be on roughly equal odds.
 

midlander12

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I love the graphics but some of the odds given are simply inexplicable - SF nearly 100% to take a seat in Cork NW but virtually 0 in SW, Chris Andrews at 93% in Dublin Bay Sth but Creighton at 27% and Humphries at 12% in one of the few constituencies where Lab are likely to hold on?
 

kingofpiccadilly

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Apr 9, 2010
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I see FF as having a very good shout at a seat in Waterford and Butler should make it. 14% for FF here in 2011 with less toxicity now and a slight increase in vote share nationally since = approximately 15% first preference for FF and a seat in Waterford.

Not sure whose seat FF threaten as I don't know how the boundary changes would factor in or whether it would knock back FF or FG.

I think Halligan and FG number 2 ( likely loser if FF take a seat ) are in trouble with Halligan perhaps in big trouble for a 1/40 shot. He only took 10.3% ( quota 20% ) and just beat Cullinane SF by 0.4% here in GE 2011. SF have been on a march since then and will take the Lions share of Labour's loss of votes in Waterford.

That should put Cullinane clear of Halligan on the first count with Halligan facing a mountain to catch and pass out Cullinane. If FF's Butler gets 15% and FG's number 2 comes in above Halligan on the first count then Halligan has probably had his chips early on.
FF's choice of a lone (Portlaw!) woman to run may turn out to be inspired. As well as having the FF vote to herself, she will also squeeze Coffey's geographical vote and pick up a gender vote. The gender aspect may be most important of all. She should do well from transfers from GP and Renua women candidates as they are eliminated, and the it is the distribution of Conway's vote that will decide the destination of the last seat. Will it be a case of Lab-FG transfers see Coffey home, or a gender vote see Butler home. Geography not at play at all on that one, both being Portlaw based.

This is of course all based on an assumption that the bookies 3 favourites are already elected by then, and I suppose you could say that we are agreed that it's not certain that Halligan and Cullinane will both get in. A lot of my logic is based on the fact that 2011 was Cullinane's third run at the Dáil, it coincided with FF going from 2 sitting TDs to none, and he still couldn't get in. As you point out, he was only 200 votes behind on the first count, and the rising SF tide may be enough to put him in front this time out.

If it goes to the point where Cullinane/Halligan is left with Coffey and Butler and Conway, with two seats remaining, the expected elimination of Conway might not necessarily see Cullinane/Halligan elected. With this in mind, Coffey (1/2 Powers) and Butler (8/11 Boyles) backed at level stakes, gives a 5/2 bet to see any one of Halligan OR Cullinane OR EVEN Deasy not elected, as your max loss is 0.5 of original level stake should Coffey take the last seat at Butler's expense
 

OldHat

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Feb 4, 2011
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I love the graphics but some of the odds given are simply inexplicable - SF nearly 100% to take a seat in Cork NW but virtually 0 in SW, Chris Andrews at 93% in Dublin Bay Sth but Creighton at 27% and Humphries at 12% in one of the few constituencies where Lab are likely to hold on?
I was going to say your methodology must have a bias toward SF and against the Labour Party

Then I looked where Labour really are in trouble, K Lynch in Cork, Phelan in CK, and you have them as very probable!

Don't like being harsh when you've obviously put a lot of time and effort in, but,Basically your figures are rubbish.
 
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ibis

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Mar 12, 2005
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12,359
Very interesting. I was going for quite similar figures:

FG 57 +/-5
Lab 11 +/-3
FF 31 +/-5
SF 26 +/-5

Independents & others 32 +/-5

AAA 4 +/-2
Renua 3 +/-2
SD 3 +/-2
WUAG 1
Greens 2 +/-1
Independents 19 +/15

Which then gives a possible FG/Lab/Renua/SD plus a few independents as a coalition. Yours would make an SF/FF coalition base more viable than mine.
 

west'sawake

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Sep 15, 2008
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3,650
Dave,

Thanks for this very very useful tool. Having gone through most of the constituencies so far it seems that the lowest FF can go if they get 20% of the vote is 32 seats.

The new boundaries suit them very well in that there are more five and four seaters, and those that are now three they had some T.Ds in already, e.g. both Laois and Offaly.

Assuming they return 2 T.Ds in Cork South Central, which is now a four seater, and two in Carlow Kilkenny, with an outside chance of two in Donegal, and if they take 3 to 4 seats in Dublin, (out of about 40), and one seat in every other constituency, bar Roscommon East Galway (where they will fight with FG for a seat there), and Kildare South, they can reach 36. If their vote reaches local election level, then 40 is possible.
As of now, I think a figure of 35 seats is within reach for them.
 

west'sawake

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Sep 15, 2008
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3,650
If FF hit 22% or more of the vote and SF hit near 20% then this is the next Govt

An Ind chairman/chairwoman like taoiseach, 6 FF cabinet seats, 5, S.F. cabinet seats, 1, S.D, 2 Independent (Ross, Fitzmaurice)


FF 36
SF 31
S.Ds 3
An indo as CC
10 other Indos

You saw it here first.
 

dgl

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Apr 27, 2007
Messages
783
Excellent work! First worthwhile thing on P.ie in a long time.
 

robra

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Apr 1, 2015
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370
Fair play to ye, that's a fantastic web site. I see Alan Kelly is 3% in Tipp? Surely not?
 

OldHat

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Feb 4, 2011
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2,847
Fair play to ye, that's a fantastic web site. I see Alan Kelly is 3% in Tipp? Surely not?
It's a fantastic website until you look at the probability figures, then you realise it's totally inaccurate.

Pity, everything let down by inaccurate figures.
 

im axeled

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Nov 24, 2010
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29,724
It's a fantastic website until you look at the probability figures, then you realise it's totally inaccurate.

Pity, everything let down by inaccurate figures.
you cannot say that until the 28th
 

Uganda

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Aug 17, 2013
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9,596
Dublin rathdown figures beggar belief.

Showing Alex White as most likely to get second seat is absurd. As is showing Alex to be twice as likely to get a seat as shatter.

Virtually all the other analyses show Ross no 1, which your analysis does, with FG no2. (Probably madigan) and the third a shoot out between shatter and white.

Methinks you need to revisit your projections.
 

publicrealm

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Aug 11, 2007
Messages
6,035
Well done young man!

(Although I'm not convinced that Jim O' Callaghan (FF) will get 47% vs Lucinda's 27% in Dublin Bay South?)
 
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