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Irish Election Stats - Probability figure for each candidate



Partizan

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 5, 2005
Messages
7,777
Hi folks,

I've just launched Irish Election Stats, a site you may be interested in. It brings together various data sources into a single statistical model to forecast seats for the election.

First time I've attempted something like this, but very pleased with the output so far. As new polls emerge, the forecasts will change.

I'm a huge fan of Nate Silver and his work on US elections. I've done my best to adapt his approach to the Irish system. We'll know on the 27th whether it's worked or not.
The WP is contesting the election as the WP, not IND/OTH just to let you know.
 

ergo2

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 4, 2008
Messages
14,034
Eh yes you can. It is probabilty based not result based.
What are the bases for the probabilities?

Are they based on previous election polling or an actual previous election results? If just informed guess work, what is informing teh guesswork.

Until we are told more about these topics, I hae me doots
 

Sister Mercedes

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 19, 2011
Messages
20,461
Dublin rathdown figures beggar belief.

Showing Alex White as most likely to get second seat is absurd. As is showing Alex to be twice as likely to get a seat as shatter.

Virtually all the other analyses show Ross no 1, which your analysis does, with FG no2. (Probably madigan) and the third a shoot out between shatter and white.

Methinks you need to revisit your projections.
The 3rd seat will be either Green or SF.
 

OldHat

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 4, 2011
Messages
2,828
What are the bases for the probabilities?

Are they based on previous election polling or an actual previous election results? If just informed guess work, what is informing teh guesswork.

Until we are told more about these topics, I hae me doots
Worse than complete guesswork, guesswork if informed would be somewhat close, it looks like this is following some very obviously flawed formula.
 

crownjewels

Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2016
Messages
25
Forecast for Wexford looks very odd. I don't think pinko Wallace or myrten (SF) have a chance

Sent from my B1-810 using Tapatalk
 

ireallyshouldknowbetter

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 7, 2014
Messages
10,015
Forecast for Wexford looks very odd. I don't think pinko Wallace or myrten (SF) have a chance

Sent from my B1-810 using Tapatalk
Mythen is an outsider for sure, but to characterise "pinko Wallace" as having no chance when he's at 1/18 to win a seat is.... an interesting opinion.
 

crownjewels

Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2016
Messages
25
He doesn't even know the way down to Wexford since he got the ticket out. That hasn't gone down well.

Sent from my B1-810 using Tapatalk
 

ergo2

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 4, 2008
Messages
14,034
The general view around Mayo is that Kenny and Ring both FG wilt be re-elected on a reduced vote, and that Calleary FF will also be re-elected,

Then a dogfight for the fourth seat between Cowley Ind Chambers FF Mulherin FG ConwaY Walsh SF.

What do you know that we Mayos don't?.

Looking thru your prophesies for other counties I detect a slight bias to SF - i.e. im ho you have them too high in Galway West
 

friendlyfire

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 8, 2011
Messages
2,517
Forecast for Wexford looks very odd. I don't think pinko Wallace or myrten (SF) have a chance

Sent from my B1-810 using Tapatalk
Well you are off the wall,one or both will be elected.....I will take your bet!
 

Carson

Active member
Joined
May 29, 2011
Messages
211
Hi. Well done for setting up the model and being brave enough to test it in public. It seems to work reasonably well at a national level, but as many people have pointed out some of the constituency level forecasts are off the wall. I suggest you incorporate the bookies constituency odds into your model in order to give it more realistic predictions.
 

Amnesiac

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 27, 2011
Messages
1,025
Hi folks,

I've just launched Irish Election Stats, a site you may be interested in. It brings together various data sources into a single statistical model to forecast seats for the election.

First time I've attempted something like this, but very pleased with the output so far. As new polls emerge, the forecasts will change.

I'm a huge fan of Nate Silver and his work on US elections. I've done my best to adapt his approach to the Irish system. We'll know on the 27th whether it's worked or not.
Terrific job, David. I hope you stick with it into the future.
 

GDPR

1
Joined
Jul 5, 2008
Messages
217,847
very well made and good site

as for the accuracy of the prediction models, well we'll see on the 28th of February :)

sinn fein are doing better on this then maybe polls are expecting and it'll be interesting to see how this pans out
 

Accidental sock

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 19, 2013
Messages
4,000
Jusus Christ....does the OP make anybody else feel like they're wholly inadequate?

I'm currently working on a site to determine which is the best type of mustache.

it's none. They're all ridiculous.
 

GDPR

1
Joined
Jul 5, 2008
Messages
217,847
He doesn't even know the way down to Wexford since he got the ticket out. That hasn't gone down well.

Sent from my B1-810 using Tapatalk
From the outset he said he wasn't going to do parish pump and he has kept his word. Yes it will hurt him some but he's the one absolute shoo in for Wexford.
 

mangaire2

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 10, 2011
Messages
9,368
The general view around Mayo is that Kenny and Ring both FG wilt be re-elected on a reduced vote, and that Calleary FF will also be re-elected,

Then a dogfight for the fourth seat between Cowley Ind Chambers FF Mulherin FG ConwaY Walsh SF.

What do you know that we Mayos don't?.

Looking thru your prophesies for other counties I detect a slight bias to SF - i.e. im ho you have them too high in Galway West
looking at Clare - he has SF @ 0%
no bias there, I would suggest.
I don't think there's any intentional bias, just insufficient data.

however - having looked at your comments & 'likes' for a long time now, I detect more than a slight bias against SF.
 


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