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Irish Election Stats - Probability figure for each candidate


endajo

Active member
Joined
Jun 6, 2009
Messages
230
The site looks lovely but the predictions have been queried by people with local knowledge and franky appear off the wall in many cases. In fairness though, the OP has explained his model and published his results. If he's right, then Frank Flannery can finally leave the stage as a new star has been born. If not, then well presumably he'll learn from the errors and the model will be better next time.

Although I agree with many posters on the apparently crazy predicitons in many of the constituencies, I find the overall predicted seat tallies disturbingly similiar to my own expectations.

Neosfaidh an aimsir.
 
Joined
Jul 31, 2012
Messages
54
Twitter
interPolitiKs
Hi folks,

I've just launched Irish Election Stats, a site you may be interested in. It brings together various data sources into a single statistical model to forecast seats for the election.

First time I've attempted something like this, but very pleased with the output so far. As new polls emerge, the forecasts will change.

I'm a huge fan of Nate Silver and his work on US elections. I've done my best to adapt his approach to the Irish system. We'll know on the 27th whether it's worked or not.
Pretty impressive work my friend, well done
 
Joined
Mar 16, 2009
Messages
54
Well you are off the wall,one or both will be elected.....I will take your bet!
I would agree with this analysis - I've been over in Wexford a lot in the last two weeks, and I'd put a small but confident wager on both Wallace and Mythen to get over the line with some to spare.
 

toner456

Member
Joined
Mar 1, 2016
Messages
10
Agree. The approach has potential although the resolution at the local level is so idiosyncratic. The poll of polls approach is sensible but with the constituency changes and the undecideds to be factored in you'd need a Cray II to crunch it
 

Fullforward

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 8, 2010
Messages
7,956
Forecast for Wexford looks very odd. I don't think pinko Wallace or myrten (SF) have a chance

Sent from my B1-810 using Tapatalk
Wallace was comfortable in taking the 3rd seat and Myrten only missed out taking the Chief Whips seat by 55 votes!
 

Robert86

Member
Joined
May 22, 2018
Messages
21
Fine gael the dirty traitors seem happy to flood this nation with undesirables. Time for fianna fail to step up
 

twokidsmanybruises

Well-known member
Joined
May 9, 2013
Messages
6,877
Wonder how long it takes for the spam above to get deleted... acts as a good benchmark for mod activity, at least.
 
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