Irish General Election 2020 - Candidates, Polls, Predictions and Results

jmcc

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Looks like it is game-on for the Irish 2020 General Election. There hasn't been a poll since the FG/Black and Tans disaster but it is likely to hit FG support and at least one of next Sunday's newspapers may have a poll. The stream of TDs standing down has already started and Jonathan O'Brien/SF has stood down as has Brendan Ryan/Labour. John Deasy/FG has retired and his likely successor announced in December that he too was retiring. On the Tonight with the two Dinnies show, Daniel O'Connell said that FG is down at least 10 seats already with retirements and other things.

Will FF become the largest party after the GE?
This is a major question for P.iesters and the electorate. Has FF been detoxified after the destruction of the Celtic Tiger? Can FF manage to overtake FG in the seat count?

Is FG now the Black and Tans party and has this PR disaster damaged it?
Even FG councillors were up in arms about the commemoration of the RIC and the Black and Tans. John "Unionist" Bruton said that the Black and Tans should be commemorated. He was also critical of 1916 claiming that the British were nice enough to offer Home Rule. Varadkar seems to be more knowledgeable about the timing of the next Kylie Minogue concert than Irish history. Has this destroyed FG's hopes for more seats?

SF - they haven't gone away
The results in the NI election show a very different SF from the past in that the Unionist majority of MPs is gone. Some of that was due to the cooperation of SF with other parties. Could this more cooperative SF be an indication of things to come with SF? Will SF move to the centre of Irish politics?

The Labour zombie resurrection
Already down one TD (Ryan), how many more Labour TDs will retire in the next few days? Can Labour actually gain more seats in this GE or will it lose its speaking rights as a party in the Dail? Who will survive? Where could Labour actually gain seats and where will it lose?

Is the future Green?
With excellent Local Elections and Euros results, the Greens look like they have been recycled and are ready for new challenges. Has the electorate forgiven them for keeping FF in power? Will the Greens damage FG and take seats from FG?

The SocDems: Two leaders but no other TDs
They are almost a Provisional Labour Party and appeal to the same demographics but they've failed to make any impact. Can the SocDems managed to get at least one more TD so that they can have two leaders and a TD?

Independents
Could these candidates, after the FG/Black and Tans disaster, take seats from FG candidates or at least gain more seats than they have already?
 
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Round tower

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List of TD's not running in the next GE
FG has 5 TD's retireing - Kenny, Noonan, Deasy, Daly, McLoughlin
SF has O Caolan, Ferris, Adams, O Brien
Lab. has 2 TD's retiring, Pemrose and Ryan
 
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the secretary

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The Greens will win extra seats, above all else this is a certainty. How many is the question? Will they have a good day and reach the 6-8 bracket?

Will SF's disastrous local election results come home to roost in the GE? If so they could go as low as 15 seats perhaps. They lost a considerable vote in the recent GE up north so if Stormont is up and running before the GE they might be able to shake off the do nothing tag. Cork East, 2nd in DMW, Carlow Kilkenny, Limerick City, 2nd in Louth, Wicklow, DBN and Fingal could all be under threat. Offaly and Meath West are gone.

PBP AAA Socialist alphabet soup partys will likely take a hit too. Some seats are under threat. Most probable that they will come home with fewer. I don't know who is what here so I can't comment.

FF will increase their seat tally. Clare, Longford Westmeath, Galway West, Dublin Central, DSC, Dun L, Dublin NW, Cork East, CNC are all targets I would expect. I wouldn't know enough about Louth, Kerry,Galway East or even Tipp as targets for 2nd seatsThey need to hold what they have as well. Could they challenge for 3 seats in Laois Offaly or Carlow Kilkenny?

FG have trouble in certain spots. Waterford being one, Galway Rosscommon and Sligo Leitrim being the others. Rock will be under pressure in DNW and there will be no 2nd seats in Fingal, DBN or DMW. A seat in Dun L is gone. Can they come back in Tipp? (likely) or get a 2nd in CSC? They will be under pressure in Clare and Galway West too. Odds against them in Longford Westmeath for a second. Might Veronica Murphy throw a spanner in the works down in Wexford. They are up against it IMO.

Lab will likely plutter along and not bother too many. They might get and extra seat or two but will be more concerned with keeping what they have.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Even FG councillors were up in arms about the commemoration of the RIC and the Black and Tans.
There was no commemoration of the Black and Tans proposed, and you know that full well. Yet another cheap, sneering lie by p.ie's resident liar.

John "Unionist" Bruton said that the Black and Tans should be commemorated.
John Bruton does not represent Fine Gael. It's also notable that you refuse to quote what he actually said.
 

hiding behind a poster

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hiding behind a poster

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Looks like it is game-on for the Irish 2020 General Election. There hasn't been a poll since the FG/Black and Tans disaster but it is likely to hit FG support and at least one of next Sunday's newspapers may have a poll. The stream of TDs standing down has already started and Jonathan O'Brien/SF has stood down as has Brendan Ryan/Labour. John Deasy/FG has retired and his likely successor announced in December that he too was retiring. On the Tonight with the two Dinnies show, Daniel O'Connell said that FG is down at least 10 seats already with retirements and other things.
Well then he's an eejit. Most of those retirement seats will be easily held.
 

shiel

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This is the third 2020 election thread arse licking the people who bankrupt the country.

The basic question is why do we want the people who bankrupt the country in 2010 back in government?

Why would we not want the people who cleaned up the mess caused by the collapse of 2010 to continue their recovery programme?
 

the secretary

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This is the third 2020 election thread arse licking the people who bankrupt the country.

The basic question is why do we want the people who bankrupt the country in 2010 back in government?

Why would we not want the people who cleaned up the mess caused by the collapse of 2010 to continue their recovery programme?
What do you mean arse licking thread?
Its a discussion thread on the upcoming GE.
The Greens and FF's likely gains is part of the discussion. You not leave them out of the conversation.
Please grow up before the contest starts proper.
 

shiel

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What do you mean arse licking thread?
Its a discussion thread on the upcoming GE.
The Greens and FF's likely gains is part of the discussion. You not leave them out of the conversation.
Please grow up before the contest starts proper.
Why does nobody mention the fact that the country was bankrupted in 2010 by the people who were elected in five successive elections with the support of the Irish media before that?

Why does nobody mention the fact that greens want to get rid of our 12.5% corporation tax regime and possibly bankrupt the country again?

Is it in the interest of the Irish people to increase their support?

Merely asking questions.
 

jmcc

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There was no commemoration of the Black and Tans proposed, and you know that full well. Yet another cheap, sneering lie by p.ie's resident liar.
Only because the public backlash by the Irish people stopped it, Double-oh Bollox. :)

John Bruton does not represent Fine Gael. It's also notable that you refuse to quote what he actually said.
He wanted to commemorate the Black and Tans.
 

jmcc

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The Greens will win extra seats, above all else this is a certainty. How many is the question? Will they have a good day and reach the 6-8 bracket?
The real danger to the Greens is from Independents. They could limit the number of seats that the Greens could win.

Will SF's disastrous local election results come home to roost in the GE? If so they could go as low as 15 seats perhaps. They lost a considerable vote in the recent GE up north so if Stormont is up and running before the GE they might be able to shake off the do nothing tag. Cork East, 2nd in DMW, Carlow Kilkenny, Limerick City, 2nd in Louth, Wicklow, DBN and Fingal could all be under threat. Offaly and Meath West are gone.
The problem with that is that SF did not lose any seats in NI and it actually cooperated with other parties. That's a very new angle for SF.

PBP AAA Socialist alphabet soup partys will likely take a hit too. Some seats are under threat. Most probable that they will come home with fewer. I don't know who is what here so I can't comment.
They've highly concentrated votes and may survive.

FF will increase their seat tally. Clare, Longford Westmeath, Galway West, Dublin Central, DSC, Dun L, Dublin NW, Cork East, CNC are all targets I would expect. I wouldn't know enough about Louth, Kerry,Galway East or even Tipp as targets for 2nd seatsThey need to hold what they have as well. Could they challenge for 3 seats in Laois Offaly or Carlow Kilkenny?
There's also an extremely low possibility that FF could get two seats in Waterford due to FG's Black and Tan fiasco and the retirement of Deasy and his possible successor Coffey. I think that FF might be running a city candidate and a county candidate.

FG have trouble in certain spots. Waterford being one, Galway Rosscommon and Sligo Leitrim being the others. Rock will be under pressure in DNW and there will be no 2nd seats in Fingal, DBN or DMW. A seat in Dun L is gone. Can they come back in Tipp? (likely) or get a 2nd in CSC? They will be under pressure in Clare and Galway West too. Odds against them in Longford Westmeath for a second. Might Veronica Murphy throw a spanner in the works down in Wexford. They are up against it IMO.
What Shanahan does next will decide FG's fate in Waterford. There's still a lot of resentment about the FG lies about the hospital and university.

Lab will likely plutter along and not bother too many. They might get and extra seat or two but will be more concerned with keeping what they hyave.
They've lost two already and there's no guarantee that those personal votes will transfer to replacement Labour candidates.
 

jmcc

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Why does nobody mention the fact that greens want to get rid of our 12.5% corporation tax regime and possibly bankrupt the country again?
Because those are European politics and this is an Irish General Election. People are focused on local issues.
 

shiel

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Because those are European politics and this is an Irish General Election. People are focused on local issues.

How is maintaining the 12.5% corp. tax rate in this country over which Ireland has a veto in the EU not important?

That is a local issue in every Irish constituency as it could cause job losses on a fairly large scale if the greens have their way in getting rid of it.

Media say nothing about this because it interferes with their agenda of getting greens into government.

How irresponsible is that?
 

jmcc

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How is maintaining the 12.5% corp. tax rate in this country over which Ireland has a veto in the EU not important?
It is important. But the focus in a GE goes hyper-local.
 

the secretary

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Why does nobody mention the fact that the country was bankrupted in 2010 by the people who were elected in five successive elections with the support of the Irish media before that?

Why does nobody mention the fact that greens want to get rid of our 12.5% corporation tax regime and possibly bankrupt the country again?

Is it in the interest of the Irish people to increase their support?

Merely asking questions.
No, you are merely moaning non stop about two political partys. They are part of the election, get over it and stop bleating like an old sheep about them.
They are part of the process so just get on with it.
You wont have much craic discussing only FG, SF and Paul Murphy's likes.
 


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