Irish General Election 2020 - Candidates, Polls, Predictions and Results

bang bang

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FF made a grave tactical error in my opinion by ruling out talks with SF yesterday.

Had they begun talks but rejected SF proposals such as the unconstitutional rent freeze and dismantling the tax base then they'd have the high ground in the next GE when the talks failed.

The more SF members banged on about 'we won the election' and Mary Lou must be Taoiseach', the more FF would be able to depict them as arrogant.

By excluding SF they've painted themselves into a corner. Now all that's on the table is FF/FG or a new GE.

I genuinely can't see FF/FG coming about so I think we're heading for a GE. And it's a GE that as of now will be pretty much a re-run of last Saturday.
What's the point/advantage so.
 


bang bang

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That is probably fair comment. Especially if the 5+ seats needed to make up the numbers were from the radical left.

Hard for FF to join a coalition where their guy was not taoiseach.

More humiliation for them to stomach after five years as FG's bitch.
I just have Vol a like, I'm going for a lie down or maybe a stiff drink!
 

mangaire2

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Feb 10, 2011
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FF made a grave tactical error in my opinion by ruling out talks with SF yesterday.

Had they begun talks but rejected SF proposals such as the unconstitutional rent freeze and dismantling the tax base then they'd have the high ground in the next GE when the talks failed.

The more SF members banged on about 'we won the election' and Mary Lou must be Taoiseach', the more FF would be able to depict them as arrogant.

By excluding SF they've painted themselves into a corner. Now all that's on the table is FF/FG or a new GE.

I genuinely can't see FF/FG coming about so I think we're heading for a GE. And it's a GE that as of now will be pretty much a re-run of last Saturday.
you know Biffo - I couldn't have put it any better myself.
& why did Martin make this "grave tactical error " ?
in a word Biffo - Shinnerphobia
Martin is an intelligent guy & an experienced politician, but he's inflicted with acute Shinnerphobia,
& he has that much in common with your good self & several more of our cáirde here on P.ie.

my guess is that we wont have another GE immediately _ FG & FF will swallow their pride & cobble something together.
'twont be easy for the blue shirted ones either - supporting the Party that they've been telling us for the past nine years, that bankrupted the state.

I reckon that SF are in a good position.
they will be happy to be leading the opposition in the Dáil to a FF/FG bag of cats.
on the other hand - they have the least to fear from another election
 

bang bang

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Sounds like she's living her party manifesto - have what you want, pay nothing.
Not a good look, if the circumstances are she stated and we've no reason to disbelieve her, I would have sympathy with the families situation. Saying that, she probably should make a donation to a homeless charity of her choice.
 

ShoutingIsLeadership

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Jan 17, 2011
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FF made a grave tactical error in my opinion by ruling out talks with SF yesterday.

Had they begun talks but rejected SF proposals such as the unconstitutional rent freeze and dismantling the tax base then they'd have the high ground in the next GE when the talks failed.

The more SF members banged on about 'we won the election' and Mary Lou must be Taoiseach', the more FF would be able to depict them as arrogant.

By excluding SF they've painted themselves into a corner. Now all that's on the table is FF/FG or a new GE.

I genuinely can't see FF/FG coming about so I think we're heading for a GE. And it's a GE that as of now will be pretty much a re-run of last Saturday.
I can't get over how inept FF has been this week. It says it won't talk to SF because it promised so before the election. Yet that rationale falls apart because it said the same of FG yet now will talk to it. Clearly before polling day FF was expecting 60 or so seats, and it is still acting as though it got them.

I posted here yesterday that Martin should have come out of the meeting yesterday and announced the desire to lead a government with parties of the left and SF. It would have given it all of the cards. Instead it did the opposite.

During the week Fionnan Sheehan described government formation talks as senior hurling. Yeah, that old line...but his next line was "And SF is Kilkenny"
 

bang bang

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But did'nt SF rule out FF & FG before the election. If they were to enter Gov with them now they would be betraying their supporters.
No, they certainly did not, you obviously weren't listening. SF said they would talk to all parties, but it would be "preferable" to form a government without FFG. Which part of this do you not understand?
 

midlander12

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Jul 29, 2008
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This is how democracy works. If Sinn Fein can form a government then neither FF nor FG can stop them. It's all about numbers. There's now a strong left wing presence in the Dail so if SF have the powers of persuasion and a sensible range of achievable objectives to work towards (without tanking the economy) then they should be able to get the numbers to form a coalition.

There's no moral imperative on either of the two big parties to spoon feed SF into government. Why would they? Neither has much in common with them.

My own guess is a FF/FG coalition or minority government with Green support. SF seem to have been bitten by the same entitlement-to-govern bug that has long afflicted the two centrist parties.

Life's tough. Politics is tougher, and that's another lesson awaiting the newcomers.
Yep. Since I was a child in the 1970's I've been hearing the Irish left (including SF) bleating on about the need for a proper left/right divide in Irish politics. Well, they have it now. There are by my reckoning at least 70 TD's either avowedly or vaguely of the left while FF/FG have 73 (or 72 if the current CC is reelected), and while most of the other 15 or so are FF/FG gene poolers, they're unlikely to want a return trip to the polls any time soon.

My understanding of the SF strategy was that they would try to negotiate an arrangement with at least some or the other left groups and then present FF with a 'take it or leave it' option on forming a coalition with the left with MLMD as Taoiseach. Instead their united left option didn't even last to the weekend, and they now seem to have pinned all their hopes on FF, the object of years of their vitriol and contempt.

Neither FF nor FG are under any obligation to put SF into power. To argue otherwise is to suggest that the votes of the 24% who voted SF are in some way more worthy that those of the 43% who voted FF and FG or the remaining 25% who voted for none of the above. Presumably SF would hope to increase their seats to 50 or so in a new election, but if they did they would still require the support of at least 30 other TD's, presumably by cultivating some left-wing allies, or do they still want to court a rump FF or FG under such circumstances?
 

Cdebru

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It is not irrelevant when somebody claims that the other 76% didn't vote for SF.

And it doesn't display any misunderstanding. I did not say that it was wrong or illegal or anything of the sort, I am fully aware that the numbers dictate everything.
What if we went back and counted everybody's 2nd preference and FF or FG actually have more votes than SF ? Which is entirely possible.
 

Cailleach

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Neither FF nor FG are under any obligation to put SF into power.
True - but both FF and FG do have an obligation to engage in government formation discussions, if not with SF then with each other.

To do otherwise would be to tell not only SF supporters, but their OWN supporters to f*** off.
 

RasherHash

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Jan 16, 2013
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Jamie
Angry Man On Twitter: Let Sinn Fein form a government see if we care

Shinners: Yay

AMOT: No, wait, form a grand coalition and keep the Shinners out

Shinners: Yay

AMOT: Actually **** all that lets have another election

Shinners: Yay 😂
 

Volatire

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.....And the Pharma, Oil and alcohol lobbyists have NO influence whatsoever, isn't that right?
NO influence?

Ridiculous. Of course pharma, banks etc have influence.

That would as ridiculous as claiming that MI5 have NO influence on Sinn Fein.
 

ShoutingIsLeadership

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Yep. Since I was a child in the 1970's I've been hearing the Irish left (including SF) bleating on about the need for a proper left/right divide in Irish politics. Well, they have it now. There are by my reckoning at least 70 TD's either avowedly or vaguely of the left while FF/FG have 73 (or 72 if the current CC is reelected), and while most of the other 15 or so are FF/FG gene poolers, they're unlikely to want a return trip to the polls any time soon.

My understanding of the SF strategy was that they would try to negotiate an arrangement with at least some or the other left groups and then present FF with a 'take it or leave it' option on forming a coalition with the left with MLMD as Taoiseach. Instead their united left option didn't even last to the weekend, and they now seem to have pinned all their hopes on FF, the object of years of their vitriol and contempt.

Neither FF nor FG are under any obligation to put SF into power. To argue otherwise is to suggest that the votes of the 24% who voted SF are in some way more worthy that those of the 43% who voted FF and FG or the remaining 25% who voted for none of the above. Presumably SF would hope to increase their seats to 50 or so in a new election, but if they did they would still require the support of at least 30 other TD's, presumably by cultivating some left-wing allies, or do they still want to court a rump FF or FG under such circumstances?
Is FF left or right?
 

Fullforward

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A week on and FF/FG are still struggling that the people whom they believed had been driven into the ground have dared to stand up to them.


By the way........... Have any of you heard the Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday or Friday detailed FF and FG statement on the Quinn family?

Me neither!
 

Baron von Biffo

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you were saying the same about a 12 year old issue highlighted by the media before the election ,....how did that pan out
How do you know that SF wouldn't have done better but for that issue?

To accuse others of failing to understand our system and then spout this nonsesne is priceless

MLM won the popular vote by getting the most first preferences .....getting more than any other leader ....it wasnt a 2 horse race , the other 75% didnt vote against SF ...they voted for others ...and none of them mustered the support MLM did
She won the most votes and was most popular ...despite you saying after her every media appearance that it had been a disaster that would lose SF votes
And this despite me saying that although McDonald had performed woefully it probably wouldn't have any impact on SF support.

The Sds exist because they couldn't stomach your beloved parties corruption under james Reilly ...we've been here before and you've been proven to be a complete liar on the subject ...half driven by your terror/hatred of the left half driven by your misogyny
The SDs exist because Shortall's ego is bigger than her talent.

As for a government of the left .....could be here very soon, in fact could have been here now if SF had fielded more candidates ...
SF transfers contributed to the election of other left candidates so if there were more SF there would be fewer alphabets. The size of the bloc would be little changed.

When did you say that? when your precious FG were on 19% ...hoping for political turmoil so FG might get a chance at resurrection ...as you now fervently hope for a SF/FF coalition as you think it gives FG a chance to improve

Your hatred for SF is palpable ......your terror of change hilarious ...your political ignorance breathtaking ..... and your attempts to write pro FG narratives ...utterly priceless
Before the election was called.
 

Baron von Biffo

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It is not irrelevant when somebody claims that the other 76% didn't vote for SF.

And it doesn't display any misunderstanding. I did not say that it was wrong or illegal or anything of the sort, I am fully aware that the numbers dictate everything.
I always express a preference for every candidate on the paper. That doesn't mean my No.14 for Stanley last week was indicative of support for SF.

This is the sort of confusion that slips in when we go away from the only valid of party support - seats won - and try to elevate spin into something of genuine significance.
 

Baron von Biffo

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Theoretically, you are right - but imagine that FFGLab decided that their members should all vote for Mr/Ms X as CC, and then they fail to get the numbers. Do you imagine that there wouldn't be an inquiry and a witch hunt to find out who had disobeyed?
How would such an inquiry be conducted?

The election is, I believe, conducted by the clerk of the Dail and he'd hardly hand the ballots over to a party who's expressed aim was to subvert the law by trying to undermine the secrecy of the ballot.

The very fact that it is a secret ballot would deter party leaders from issuing instructions about it lest they be embarassed if the outcome showed they'd been ignored.
 


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