• Due to a glitch in the old vBulletin software, some users were "banned" when they tried to change their passwords at the end of February. This does not apply after the site was converted to Xenforo. If you were affected by this, please contact us.

Irish Property Market 2005

TTFN

New member
Joined
Jan 12, 2005
Messages
2
First post

2005 will be an interesting year for the Irish property market. Estate agents and lenders seem to have reached a consensus, that prices will increase by 10% this year. This forecast is in the context of unprecedented housing output expected again this year.
By the end of the year therefore someone buying an average priced home now, can expect (according to these forecasts), a paper profit of €25,000 by year’s end.

These projections are surprising however given the following facts;

1. House prices fell outside Dublin in the last quarter of 2004.

2. Rental values continue to fall and void periods increase in the investment market, this situation is unlikely to improve, the government has announced funding for 30,000 affordable housing units to be built over the next five years.

3. Wage growth is nowhere near the actual or projected growth in house prices.

4. Property markets in countries with similar economies to our own have seen poorly performing markets since the summer of last year.

UK
Mortgage approvals have fallen by 40% to their lowest level in a decade, house price falls which were first reported in the summer of 2004 are continuing. The vast majority of independent commentators have stated that we are seeing the bursting of a speculative bubble in the UK market.


US
Housing markets which saw the greatest escalation in prices over the last few years in California, Nevada and the north east are showing signs of a sharp slowdown. With falls of up to 20% recorded in San Diego and Orange County.


Australia
Prices in the major cities have seen falls for over a year. Brisbane for instance has seen a fall of 15% in the last quarter. Again commentators are stating that a speculative real estate bubble has burst.


5. Levels of personal debt continue to grow at record levels.

6. Ireland’s competitive position is being eroded with business and employers organisations repeatedly warning of the economic consequences.

7. Serious issues with the role out of vital infrastructural projects have again been identified as posing a risk to Ireland’s competitiveness. After twenty years the M50 for instance is yet to be completed, broadband coverage is the worst in Europe save for Greece. Time and cost overruns, nimbyism and parish pump politicking have conspired to narrow the vital arteries of development in an infrastructuraly challenged nation, which cannot afford the extravagance of long winded development lead times.


8. Average property prices relative to average incomes are now the highest in the world, compared to other markets not driven in part by non domestic demand.

9. The above may not be an issue as Irish lending institutions seem to be able to find applicants who are able to afford these high P/E ratios. However if we consider the well documented disaster myopia which gripped banks in Japan etc before previous real estate busts and the weak hand that passes for Irish regulation of lending, this extraordinary munificence by our banks is understandable.




The global economy is entering a time of uncertainty. The debt driven consumer has forestalled, (to date) the economic day of reckoning which should have followed the dotcom bust, the last speculative mania. Emergency base rates in Europe and the US and hyper low cost production costs in China have staved off a recession or worse.
However there is a finite amount of debt that can be carried by society. Early signs of retrenchment by consumers are now evident in the UK and US and Ireland is almost uniquely exposed to the vagaries of any change in the fickle economic wind.


You will of course not read anything as bearish as the above in any Irish newspaper, I fully understand that whoever pays the piper names the tune. The censorship mentality that blighted Ireland for much of the last centaury is alive and well if you dare to blaspheme the new religion.

10%?, whoever said “don’t believe everything you read in the papers” was right.
 


Libero

Well-known member
Joined
May 22, 2004
Messages
2,994
Merges aren't easily done, I'm afraid.

You can always link from the other thread to this one, should you wish to refer to any content here. For anyone reading this, the more recent thread is here.
If TTFN is out there, I hope he reads this and rejoins us. Only 2 posts before he disappeared! I guess it can be offputting when you write a couple of hundred words for your first post but they seem to be ignored.

In the meantime, since this thread was dormant for months, I'm locking it to prevent duplication of the topic.
 

He3

Moderator
Joined
Oct 1, 2008
Messages
17,077

He3

Moderator
Joined
Oct 1, 2008
Messages
17,077

Dan_Murphy

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 22, 2010
Messages
3,748
Most prescient first post of all, perhaps...

If the thread hadn't been locked, Ard-Taoiseach, freedomlover, and several FFers/PDs would have jumped all over it, of course. Do you remember Ahern, Cowen and co. saying that 'nobody saw it coming'? The pondlife we elect as 'leaders'....
It is amazing to dive back into the P.ie archives, the number of posters who disappeared in Autumn 2008...
 

Partizan

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 5, 2005
Messages
7,777
It is amazing to dive back into the P.ie archives, the number of posters who disappeared in Autumn 2008...
Many of them simply changed their names and came back under different guises. They are easy to spot.
 

rockofcashel

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 23, 2005
Messages
7,998
Website
www.sinnfein.ie
Much of the country did, and carried on.
And called those of us who were saying there were big problems ahead all kinds of names... and many of those still think it was us "communists and naysayers" who caused the problem, by "talking the country down"...
 

H.R. Haldeman

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 1, 2008
Messages
4,425
One of the great myths of the property bubble is that nobody saw it for what it was. That we all partied and nobody saw the crash coming. This is simply not true.

Thousands and thousands of ordinary citizens knew what was happening - McWilliams was one of the few such public figures - and every day tried to warn friends, family and colleagues about it. Over dinner, at the water cooler in work, in the pub on a Friday night. I remember it well because I was one of those people and my God, the reactions you'd get. People rolling their eyes, giving that "he's off again!" look. And that was the best of it - often you were greeted with downright hostility and rudeness.

My conscience is clear on all this. I genuinely tried my best in a tiny way to fight back when this was all going on. I don't think one of my friends or colleagues at the time listened to me. A couple are now horribly underwater on property investments. Well, I tried, and now that things have gone wrong I feel fully justified in arguing for property repossessions, an end to the immoral mortgage moratorium, the immediate liquidation of BTL's in arrears, the retrenchment of government spending to pre-bubble levels, cuts in PS pay & minimum wage and all the rest. Those of us who railed back in the day won't quickly forget how we were treated in Bertie's Ireland, and I'm in the mood now to demand my pound of flesh. Call that vindictive if you like, I call it consistent. And yes, maybe there's a bit of schadenfraude to it...but memories of how horrible people were at that time eases my guilt on that front.
 

ottovonbismarck

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 3, 2011
Messages
3,167
My wife sold her mid terrace in Beaumont Woods for 495,000 in Dec 2005. I see a semi detached in it now for 325,000.
 

thetruthspeaks

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 8, 2006
Messages
1,001
One of the great myths of the property bubble is that nobody saw it for what it was. That we all partied and nobody saw the crash coming. This is simply not true.

Thousands and thousands of ordinary citizens knew what was happening - McWilliams was one of the few such public figures - and every day tried to warn friends, family and colleagues about it. Over dinner, at the water cooler in work, in the pub on a Friday night. I remember it well because I was one of those people and my God, the reactions you'd get. People rolling their eyes, giving that "he's off again!" look. And that was the best of it - often you were greeted with downright hostility and rudeness.

My conscience is clear on all this. I genuinely tried my best in a tiny way to fight back when this was all going on. I don't think one of my friends or colleagues at the time listened to me. A couple are now horribly underwater on property investments. Well, I tried, and now that things have gone wrong I feel fully justified in arguing for property repossessions, an end to the immoral mortgage moratorium, the immediate liquidation of BTL's in arrears, the retrenchment of government spending to pre-bubble levels, cuts in PS pay & minimum wage and all the rest. Those of us who railed back in the day won't quickly forget how we were treated in Bertie's Ireland, and I'm in the mood now to demand my pound of flesh. Call that vindictive if you like, I call it consistent. And yes, maybe there's a bit of schadenfraude to it...but memories of how horrible people were at that time eases my guilt on that front.
I think people who thought like you had strength of character.
I remember coming back from the uk in late 2006 and wondering what the heck was going on, I met an old friend from school who was buying. I mentioned McWilliams and got the sharp reply; "A stopped clock is right twice a day".
Critical thinking faculties seemed to have deserted people in general.

"When everybody is doing the same thing - it's time to do some thinking" - A grasshopper.
 

EUrJokingMeRight

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 28, 2009
Messages
11,664
I think people who thought like you had strength of character.
I remember coming back from the uk in late 2006 and wondering what the heck was going on, I met an old friend from school who was buying. I mentioned McWilliams and got the sharp reply; "A stopped clock is right twice a day".
Critical thinking faculties seemed to have deserted people in general.

"When everybody is doing the same thing - it's time to do some thinking" - A grasshopper.
After watching Irish people for decades I have come to the conclusion that most people are dumb and trust 'authority' figures such as polticians,TD's, lecturers, bankers, Newspapers, radio and TV presenters way, way too much for their own good.

But it seems to get them off! So let them at it I say!

When Joe public is saying things like 'the only show in town' then AVOID like the plague.
 

Rhubarbless

Member
Joined
Jul 9, 2010
Messages
89
I have some sympathy for the Irish as the bubble was a new experience for them. I have no sympathy for Californians who made bad choices. This has been a boom and bust state since the gold rush (1849) and people should know better. The good thing about California is people can walk away from an underwater mortgage if they can swallow their pride. There is none of this sieze your passport nonsense.
 

james5001

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 27, 2009
Messages
11,272
One of the great myths of the property bubble is that nobody saw it for what it was. That we all partied and nobody saw the crash coming. This is simply not true.

Thousands and thousands of ordinary citizens knew what was happening - McWilliams was one of the few such public figures - and every day tried to warn friends, family and colleagues about it. Over dinner, at the water cooler in work, in the pub on a Friday night. I remember it well because I was one of those people and my God, the reactions you'd get. People rolling their eyes, giving that "he's off again!" look. And that was the best of it - often you were greeted with downright hostility and rudeness.

My conscience is clear on all this. I genuinely tried my best in a tiny way to fight back when this was all going on. I don't think one of my friends or colleagues at the time listened to me. A couple are now horribly underwater on property investments. Well, I tried, and now that things have gone wrong I feel fully justified in arguing for property repossessions, an end to the immoral mortgage moratorium, the immediate liquidation of BTL's in arrears, the retrenchment of government spending to pre-bubble levels, cuts in PS pay & minimum wage and all the rest. Those of us who railed back in the day won't quickly forget how we were treated in Bertie's Ireland, and I'm in the mood now to demand my pound of flesh. Call that vindictive if you like, I call it consistent. And yes, maybe there's a bit of schadenfraude to it...but memories of how horrible people were at that time eases my guilt on that front.
I hope you reminded them who was right.
 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top