Irish Times Abortion Poll 17th May: 58% of decideds in favour of repeal, 42% against

Sync

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https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-poll-repeal-has-large-but-reduced-lead-1.3497830

The Yes side retains a clear advantage in the abortion referendum campaign, but its lead has reduced sharply in the last month, the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI opinion poll has found.
Asked how they will vote in the referendum to repeal the Eighth Amendment, 44 per cent of voters now say they will vote in favour of the proposal, a decline of three points since the last poll in late April.
The No vote is at 32 per cent, an increase of four points, while 17 per cent are undecided (a decline of three points). Seven per cent said they will not vote or refused to say.
Still a really bad place for No. The speed of closing of the numbers really point to a Yes victory. But there’s room for hope.

1. Those voting No are rock solid in their decision. 85% won’t change, which removes concern around your base.

2. Old people are still in favour and they turn out. Time to organise those red buses to bring people in nursing homes to the polling stations.

3. The biggest shot:
The poll shows that a significant minority of declared Yes voters believe that the Government’s proposal for legalising abortion “goes too far”, while 47 per cent of all voters say the law needs to be changed, but 12 weeks is too far.
However, many of those voters still intend to vote in favour of the referendum proposal. Over half of all voters (54 per cent) say that while they have reservations about the 12-weeks proposal, they believe it is a “reasonable compromise”. Just over a third of voters (35 per cent) disagree.
That’s got to be the target for the next week. The argument on the hard cases is over. Just don’t engage it any more. Any time spent on it is time wasted. Focus on the the area Yesers are less certain of. “this is a vote for abortion on demand up to 3 months”. Turn it into a referendum on that.

It’s too late, but the No side really should have set up a false flag team to push at that known waivering group ages ago. “we agree that abortion should come in limited circumstances, but this is far too much. Vote no and make the govt come back with something more sensible. Then vote yes. " Then just don’t be around for the next vote if you win.
 
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GJG

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It’s too late, but the No side really should have set up a false flag team to push at that known waivering group ages ago. “we agree that abortion should come in limited circumstances, but this is far too much. Vote no and make the govt come back with something more sensible. Then vote yes. " Then just don’t be around for the next vote if you win.
You weren't a consultant for the keep the gravy train sorry, reform the Seanad campaign, were you?
 

fat finger

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Listening to a young girl earlier on radio, I just pray to God her view is not widespread but it is pretty clear how she spoke that she wants and sees the vote as being simply about being able to decide if she finds herself pregnant in the future (no extreme circumstances), if she finds herself pregnant, she just wants the freedom to be able to decide whether to go ahead with having the child or not. She literally is seeing pregnancy already as a choice to go ahead with or shut down, my fear is that for many young women this is what the referendum is really about, the ability to simply wash a pregnancy out of your life if you just aren't in the mood to continue with it.
Truly terrifying
 

Fats_Portnoy

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https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-poll-repeal-has-large-but-reduced-lead-1.3497830



Still a really bad place for No. The speed of closing of the numbers really point to a Yes victory. But there’s room for hope.

1. Those voting No are rock solid in their decision. 85% won’t change, that also lends to a reasonable conclusion that they’re more likely to turn out that less certain folks on Yes at 66%.

2. Old people are still in favour and they turn out. Time to organise those red buses to bring people in nursing homes to the polling stations.

3. The biggest shot:


That’s got to be the target for the next week. The argument on the hard cases is over. Just don’t engage it any more. Any time spent on it is time wasted. Focus on the the area Yesers are less certain of. “this is a vote for abortion on demand up to 3 months”. Turn it into a referendum on that.

It’s too late, but the No side really should have set up a false flag team to push at that known waivering group ages ago. “we agree that abortion should come in limited circumstances, but this is far too much. Vote no and make the govt come back with something more sensible. Then vote yes. " Then just don’t be around for the next vote if you win.
Simply excluding undecideds in a referendum is misleading as historically most undecideds vote No.
In terms of core vote it is pretty even so stronger cause for hope than the main headline.
 

Emily Davison

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https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-poll-repeal-has-large-but-reduced-lead-1.3497830



Still a really bad place for No. The speed of closing of the numbers really point to a Yes victory. But there’s room for hope.

1. Those voting No are rock solid in their decision. 85% won’t change, that also lends to a reasonable conclusion that they’re more likely to turn out that less certain folks on Yes at 66%.

2. Old people are still in favour and they turn out. Time to organise those red buses to bring people in nursing homes to the polling stations.

3. The biggest shot:


That’s got to be the target for the next week. The argument on the hard cases is over. Just don’t engage it any more. Any time spent on it is time wasted. Focus on the the area Yesers are less certain of. “this is a vote for abortion on demand up to 3 months”. Turn it into a referendum on that.

It’s too late, but the No side really should have set up a false flag team to push at that known waivering group ages ago. “we agree that abortion should come in limited circumstances, but this is far too much. Vote no and make the govt come back with something more sensible. Then vote yes. " Then just don’t be around for the next vote if you win.
Pretty dishonest conclusion by you there.

Are there any circumstances that you'd actually vote yes to an abortion?
 

Wagmore

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Funny- Paddy Power not offering odds on referendum all morning? Scrambling to read between the lies....sorry, lines?
 

statsman

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https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-poll-repeal-has-large-but-reduced-lead-1.3497830



Still a really bad place for No. The speed of closing of the numbers really point to a Yes victory. But there’s room for hope.

1. Those voting No are rock solid in their decision. 85% won’t change, that also lends to a reasonable conclusion that they’re more likely to turn out that less certain folks on Yes at 66%.

2. Old people are still in favour and they turn out. Time to organise those red buses to bring people in nursing homes to the polling stations.

3. The biggest shot:


That’s got to be the target for the next week. The argument on the hard cases is over. Just don’t engage it any more. Any time spent on it is time wasted. Focus on the the area Yesers are less certain of. “this is a vote for abortion on demand up to 3 months”. Turn it into a referendum on that.

It’s too late, but the No side really should have set up a false flag team to push at that known waivering group ages ago. “we agree that abortion should come in limited circumstances, but this is far too much. Vote no and make the govt come back with something more sensible. Then vote yes. " Then just don’t be around for the next vote if you win.
There's a case for thinking that this is a good poll for Yes, as it may shift the complacent.
 

Wagmore

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https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-poll-repeal-has-large-but-reduced-lead-1.3497830



Still a really bad place for No. The speed of closing of the numbers really point to a Yes victory. But there’s room for hope.

1. Those voting No are rock solid in their decision. 85% won’t change, that also lends to a reasonable conclusion that they’re more likely to turn out that less certain folks on Yes at 66%.

2. Old people are still in favour and they turn out. Time to organise those red buses to bring people in nursing homes to the polling stations.

3. The biggest shot:


That’s got to be the target for the next week. The argument on the hard cases is over. Just don’t engage it any more. Any time spent on it is time wasted. Focus on the the area Yesers are less certain of. “this is a vote for abortion on demand up to 3 months”. Turn it into a referendum on that.

It’s too late, but the No side really should have set up a false flag team to push at that known waivering group ages ago. “we agree that abortion should come in limited circumstances, but this is far too much. Vote no and make the govt come back with something more sensible. Then vote yes. " Then just don’t be around for the next vote if you win.
Great point. That's what stinks about this. If they had the cojones to ask for abortion on demand it would have been more honest. All this talk about journeys and hard cases is casting yes politicians in a phony light. They don't give a monkeys about the hard cases.
 

flavirostris

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Great point. That's what stinks about this. If they had the cojones to ask for abortion on demand it would have been more honest. All this talk about journeys and hard cases is casting yes politicians in a phony light. They don't give a monkeys about the hard cases.
I felt this during the CB special. The govt / Yes campaign simply do not have the courage to come out and say 'This is a woman's right to choose', so they hide behind the hard cases which they think is an easier sell.

That should be something the No camp can exploit. Their opponent is not even convinced of their own arguments and has to resort to extreme cases to make a convincing point.
 

Sync

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Great point. That's what stinks about this. If they had the cojones to ask for abortion on demand it would have been more honest. All this talk about journeys and hard cases is casting yes politicians in a phony light. They don't give a monkeys about the hard cases.
Oh yeah, I mean that’s why Yes keeps focusing on the hard cases. It suits them. The hard cases are heartbreaking and an unassailable majority of people are going to say “yes, it’s unacceptable to force someone who’s 12, or raped, or carrying a child with disastrous defects to term”. But the votes not on that, the legislations not on that and 99% of the cases involved won’t relate to them. And I do think the No side’s too often fallen into the trap of arguing against that 1% of cases rather than focusing on the 99%.
 

Half Nelson

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NO should now focus on selling the big picture - since 98%+ of abortions are for social reasons it's apparent that abortion is first and foremost about ridding society of unwanted children - children we refuse to love because our system has no place for them.

As we've been doing for decades, we continue to load our inadequacies, self-interest and failings on those least able to object - our children.

There has to be a word beyond "shame".
 

Lord Talbot

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1. Those voting No are rock solid in their decision. 85% won’t change, that also lends to a reasonable conclusion that they’re more likely to turn out that less certain folks on Yes at 66%.
Incorrect

89% of YES voters are absolutely or extremely unlikely to change their mind.
(that's 66% saying 'absolutely never' and 23% saying 'extremely unlikely')

85% of NO voters are absolutely OR extremely unlikely to change their mind.
(IT neglected to break this figure down further)
 

Apple in Eden

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Simply excluding undecideds in a referendum is misleading as historically most undecideds vote No.
In terms of core vote it is pretty even so stronger cause for hope than the main head The No's will believe theyline.
Could be much closer than they are predicting. Even this poll which may over estimate Yes is far from conclusive. A small margin of error and a distribution of undecided in favour for No and it is down to about 52% Yes. This could be another cliff hanger like 95. The No camp will believe they are still in with a shout
 

Sync

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Incorrect

89% of YES voters are absolutely or extremely unlikely to change their mind.
(that's 66% saying 'absolutely never' and 23% saying 'extremely unlikely')

85% of NO voters are absolutely OR extremely unlikely to change their mind.
(IT neglected to break this figure down further)
You’re right. I misread the No breakdown and thought it was only the absolutes. I’ll update the OP.
 

Wagmore

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Could be much closer than they are predicting. Even this poll which may over estimate Yes is far from conclusive. A small margin of error and a distribution of undecided in favour for No and it is down to about 52% Yes. This could be another cliff hanger like 95. The No camp will believe they are still in with a shout
Irish Times polls are not to be trusted. Remember Trump. If the "deplorables' listened to the polls, they wouldn't have bothered voting.
 

Half Nelson

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It's the Irish Times - a paper with a proven pro-abortion agenda.

Do you honestly believe any polling company is going to give it bad news and endanger the paycheque?

These polls aren't conducted for the purposes of information - they're for propaganda purposes. The truth doesn't matter - we all could have guessed what would be in the poll.
 

The Field Marshal

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it's the irish times - a paper with a proven pro-abortion agenda.

Do you honestly believe any polling company is going to give it bad news and endanger the paycheque?

These polls aren't conducted for the purposes of information - they're for propaganda purposes. The truth doesn't matter - we could all have guessed what would be in the poll.
the IT is not reliable or truthful.
 

Cellachán Chaisil

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Irish Times polls are not to be trusted. Remember Trump. If the "deplorables' listened to the polls, they wouldn't have bothered voting.
When did the IT do a Trump poll?
 


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