Irish Times misinterprets own poll

McDave

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From today's front page:

New government will not help economy - poll
"a majority does not think an alternative government would do any better": The Irish Times - Sat, Oct 02, 2010

However, data in response to the question give quite a different story.

The question: "If there were to be a change in government do you think that a new government would improve, have no impact, or worsen our economic situation?"

- Improve: 39%
- Have no impact: 45%
- Worsen: 6%

I take this to mean voters feel a change in government would improve as opposed to worsen our economy by a factor of almost 5 to 1.

Or using the same logic in the quotation but in the other direction, 84% of voters feel a change in government would not worsen the economy.

Why such a ludicrous misrepresentation of the findings of their own poll?
 


Bobert

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Because the majority said it would make no difference?
 

pujols

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Sorry mate,

the way I read that 51% think that a new government would have no impact or worsen our economic situation

think the headline is accurate
 

edifice.

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Reminds me of their Lisbon Polls; If the Lisbon Treaty was changed to accommodate your objections to it would you support it? Headline: Majority Support Lisbon Treaty.
 

McDave

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Sorry mate,

the way I read that 51% think that a new government would have no impact or worsen our economic situation

think the headline is accurate
Nope, that's the headline on page 7. The OP refers to the front page headline which states: "New government will not help economy - poll". An entirely different proposition.
 

pujols

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If 51%, a majority, think that a new government would have no impact (45%) or make it worse (6%), then I think the headline "New government will not help economy" is fair enough.

Don't see the conspiracy here to be honest.
 

evercloserunion

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I think the headline corresponds with the findings of the poll, and don't see where the OP is coming from. Note that the headline doesn't say anything about a new government worsening the situation.

My only objection would be that saying "New government will not help economy - poll" when in fact a majority of only 1% actually said that is disingenuous.
 

Odyessus

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From today's front page:

New government will not help economy - poll
"a majority does not think an alternative government would do any better": The Irish Times - Sat, Oct 02, 2010

However, data in response to the question give quite a different story.

The question: "If there were to be a change in government do you think that a new government would improve, have no impact, or worsen our economic situation?"

- Improve: 39%
- Have no impact: 45%
- Worsen: 6%

I take this to mean voters feel a change in government would improve as opposed to worsen our economy by a factor of almost 5 to 1.

Or using the same logic in the quotation but in the other direction, 84% of voters feel a change in government would not worsen the economy.

Why such a ludicrous misrepresentation of the findings of their own poll?

What are you on about? 51% say a new government would worsen, or not improve our situation, while 39% say it would.

Are you innumerate? :confused:


(Helpful hint: 51 is a bigger number than 39.) :rolleyes:
 

LiberalFG

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It probably won't make much of a difference at this stage but I, and I suspect most of the respondents, want the people who have caused this mess the ************************ out of office.
 

SideysGhost

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What are you on about? 51% say a new government would worsen, or not improve our situation
...and 84% say it would make no difference or improve the situation. 84 is bigger than 51 :rolleyes:

Lies damned lies and statistics I suppose. Both interpretations are valid up to a point. It just depends how you want to spin it. In that respect this thread is useful as it is a fairly clear example of how the media can twist and spin headlines and interpretations of events to suit a pre-defined agenda. All media everywhere in the world has pre-defined agendas and spins the news to give it a particular slant.

Far too many people are unaware of this media propensity for spin and just swallow what they are told at face value. They are under some delusion that the media is there to impartially report the bare facts. If this recession does nothing else, if it slaps a few people upside the head and convinces them to pay attention in future it'll be worth it in the end.
 

Bobert

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Guys the 6% result has no bearing in this headline. It's all about the 45%.
 

Panopticon

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It's an entirely accurate headline. FWIW I agree with it and I would have been one of the 45%. Both government and opposition have some bad policies but can only act within a certain range.
 

owedtojoy

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From today's front page:

New government will not help economy - poll
"a majority does not think an alternative government would do any better": The Irish Times - Sat, Oct 02, 2010

However, data in response to the question give quite a different story.

The question: "If there were to be a change in government do you think that a new government would improve, have no impact, or worsen our economic situation?"

- Improve: 39%
- Have no impact: 45%
- Worsen: 6%

I take this to mean voters feel a change in government would improve as opposed to worsen our economy by a factor of almost 5 to 1.

Or using the same logic in the quotation but in the other direction, 84% of voters feel a change in government would not worsen the economy.

Why such a ludicrous misrepresentation of the findings of their own poll?
45% - a plurality think a change in government would make no difference.

39% think it would improve matters.

Given the 45% are indifferent to whether we change government or not, I would go with the 39% ... you could look on the 45% as abstainers.

10 people are lost in the desert. 4 want to go North, 1 wants to go South, and 5 shrug and say "Makes no difference to me". Which way would they go in practice? The Irish Times seems to be saying: "Therefore, you should head South".
 

FutureTaoiseach

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The headline is an accurate reflection of the findings of the poll. Labour can't tax our way out of a recession. And with the 1982-7 govt they refuse to support public-sector pay reductions so they will turn again to increased taxation and borrowing (if the international credit-markets agree to borrow to a country with such a catastrophic crisis in the public-finances). Higher taxes will actually reduce revenues by wrecking economic growth, turning into a deficit-tax spiral which will lead to 20% unemployment as it nearly was when the 1982-7 govt ended.
 

McDave

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What are you on about? 51% say a new government would worsen, or not improve our situation, while 39% say it would.

Are you innumerate? :confused:


(Helpful hint: 51 is a bigger number than 39.) :rolleyes:
Of that 51, 45 constitutes no difference. In fact only 6% said a new government would worsen our situation, not 51%. You see, you've actually been misled by the headline on the front page of the IT.

QED

PS: it's a pity you couldn't have made your point without being abusive. Oh well...
 

pujols

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I find it hard to credit the attempts to distort the logic of the finding.

It is clear that a majority, 51%, do not think that an alternative government would do any better.

You may not like it.

You can talk around it all day. You can accuse it of spinning or being spun, but the numbers are in black and white

The headline follows logically from the numbers.

This thread is making my head hurt.
 

McDave

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I find it hard to credit the attempts to distort the logic of the finding.

It is clear that a majority, 51%, do not think that an alternative government would do any better.

You may not like it.

You can talk around it all day. You can accuse it of spinning or being spun, but the numbers are in black and white

The headline follows logically from the numbers.

This thread is making my head hurt.
By exactly the same token, 84% think it would not do any worse with almost half of those reckoning they would actually do better.

So why go for the 51% spin?
 

McDave

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...and 84% say it would make no difference or improve the situation. 84 is bigger than 51 :rolleyes:
Precisely!

It's clear that the IT chose to lump the "no impact" punters (as opposed to the don't knows) with a tiny "worse" figure to make a specious point. The net point in the survey (even if Stephen Collins chooses to ignore it) is the discrepancy between those who think and alternative government would do better (39%) and worse (6%). That's a preference for an alternative to the current government to handle the economy.

It's really, really clear, and I'm surprised it hasn't been picked up on more people. Perhaps the IT doesn't want to encourage an election!!! :D
 


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