Is a first preference vote for the socialist party a waste?

jayblue

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I am a registered voter out in Dublin West, and am now wondering is there any point in given Joe Higgins a number one vote, especailly if the are ruling out going into government after the next election.

If the socalist party's 3-4 TD's are required to make a stable government after the next election should they go into Government.

This will be the question I will be asking the socialist party canvassers when they come to my door in the new year.
 


Sync

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1. No it's not a waste. Higgins has an excellent chance at winning.

2. As long as you cast your second, third preferences etc your voice will still count. Your first vote is unlikely to matter all that much in that area, it's going to be tight.

3. The socialists aren't going to get 3-4 seats.

4. Even if they did, they won't be required for a balanced govt due to the projected numbers FG and Lab will command.

5. Even if they were, I couldn't imagine anyone wanting to be in power with them.

It's perfectly reasonable to ask why they're saying they won't go into govt though (I've heard a couple of the canvassers say it too).

Aside from the "Gosh we're fighting for change, can't do it from within" bollox, the very real reason is that the smallest party in the next Govt it going to take a big hit in the 2015 polls, the same way Lab did in previous years, same way the PD and Greens did and the same way the Lib Dems are in the UK.
 
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TimBuckII

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Strange on this. Are you voting for Joe Higgans or the SP?

If you want Higgans then vote for him but if you want to vote for the party then it gets a little akward.

The Sp could take this seat without Higgans but Higgans will give up the European seat to run in DW. There is no way a SP co-op could hold the EU seat. Higgans will be running in DW at the cost of the party. What's his game?
 

Sync

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Strange on this. Are you voting for Joe Higgans or the SP?

If you want Higgans then vote for him but if you want to vote for the party then it gets a little akward.

The Sp could take this seat without Higgans but Higgans will give up the European seat to run in DW. There is no way a SP co-op could hold the EU seat. Higgans will be running in DW at the cost of the party. What's his game?
No one will vote for the SP. They'll vote for Joe Higgins though.
 

vanla sighs

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No, it's not a waste of your vote, in fact it would be a very smart move. SP won't be going into government - FG and LAB will have the numbers, they won't need a rainbow coalition.
 

havesomeimagination

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What we need is a strong voice of opposition in the dail to mobilise public opposition against the crazy policies of the gvt. Imagine if we'd had 3 or 4 socialist TDs in during NAMA & the bank guarantee - the whole national debate would have been very different and we might not be so completely f*ed now.
 

vanla sighs

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havesomeimagination

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Strange on this. Are you voting for Joe Higgans or the SP?

If you want Higgans then vote for him but if you want to vote for the party then it gets a little akward.

The Sp could take this seat without Higgans but Higgans will give up the European seat to run in DW. There is no way a SP co-op could hold the EU seat. Higgans will be running in DW at the cost of the party. What's his game?
I don't think they could take the seat without Higgins & they need to be absolutely sure of being back in the Dail for what's coming. That's the number one priority. Joe would never do anything to undermine the party for personal gain - the idea is actually inconceivable.
 

Trophonius

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This might be a stupid question but if I give a candidate who consequently gets eliminated my No. 1 vote, aren't those votes redistributed to the 2nd, 3rd, 4th choice etc? Or is it only if they are elected that their 2nd, 3rd choices are redistributed?
Yes, all transferable votes of eliminated candidates are distributed. If your 2nd choice has already been elected or eliminated then your 3rd choice is distributed and so on.
 

havesomeimagination

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and if your first preference is elected with a large surplus the 2nd prefs get redistributed so that way your vote doesn't go to waste either
 

TimBuckII

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In 2007 -

Candidate Party 1st Pref

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Brian Lenihan2 Jnr 11,125 32.74%
Dr Leo Varadkar 6,928 20.39%
Joan Burton 5,799 17.06%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

* Joe Higgins 5,066 14.91% 0.60 (5) Not Elected
Gerry Lynam 1,601 4.71% 0.19 (4) Eliminated


ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Dublin West First Preference Votes


It's now a four seater. The SP could take the fourth seat. There is the swing to Labour to consider but I think they could take it with a decent campaign.
 

grafter1

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There is no such thing as a wasted vote.

It reminds me of the story told of a vote counter in Cork South Central. One ballot had indicated a first preference for all the candidates with a comment on the bottom "as promised to all the candidates when they called to my house"

Maybe spoiled votes are wasted!
 

jayblue

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I reckon I asked the wrong question, I understand about how the irish voting system works.

Basically if after the election the socialist party has the opportunity to go into governemnt should they go into government
 

Goodbody

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I am on the right of the political sphere (economically) but I'd like to see the Socialist party do well (not too well). This country needs to move beyond jaded old tribal politics and onto considering issues ideologically.
 

Sync

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I reckon I asked the wrong question, I understand about how the irish voting system works.

Basically if after the election the socialist party has the opportunity to go into governemnt should they go into government
No. They're a party that want fundamental change in both politics and society. They must be smart enough to know that's not what the next govt is going to be about. Also, as mentioned, elections are not kind to the smallest party in power. There will be billions removed from the economy next year. There will be increases in college fees. There will be expansions of the tax net. For the SP to be connected to that would kill them stone dead.

From my own perspective, if they were in it would be because they were required, meaning FF get far more seats than they're projected to. That means a coalition of FG/Lab/SP/Inds vs a largish FF.

That government wouldn't last 2 years before the SP would be forced to flounce off, collapsing the govt and letting FF in. Nothing would be done for those 2 years such would be the inability of the right/left elements of the coalition to agree on anything.
 

Luigi Vampa

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I am a registered voter out in Dublin West, and am now wondering is there any point in given Joe Higgins a number one vote, especailly if the are ruling out going into government after the next election.

If the socalist party's 3-4 TD's are required to make a stable government after the next election should they go into Government.

This will be the question I will be asking the socialist party canvassers when they come to my door in the new year.
Vote for the candidate and polices you believe in, in genuine order of preference, regardless of their chances of being elected, not the candidate / party you think will win. If every voter did that, rather that the Man United / FF supporter mentality of "voting for the likely winner" that went on here for decades, then we might start to get a decent democracy and better candidates.
 
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Mushroom

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navangreen

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Vote Socialist Party

I have fortunately had the opportunity to see at first hand the sincerity of Joe Higgins and the Socialist Party.. as a successful independent local election candidate.. this was a few years ago.. in a non-Dublin based constituency. It was a time when the Socialist Party was in its transition stage. Now the transition has been completed.. I would advocate offering it support.
In the next few short weeks the Irish people have a simple choice to make. Impose on themselves impossible financial hardship for decades or reject this misery. It’s as basic as that.
Our decision will be made at the General Election. Fianna Fail wants a budget in advance. Not for the good of you and me. But for their own party political self serving survival. They want Fine Gael and Labour to be in a position where afterwards they can point the finger at them for imposing on Irish people the same impossible financial hardships. This is exactly what FG/Lab will do. All three are preying on Irish people for votes in order to hold the power to inflict misery.
Forget about the Budget. These are decisions which can be reversed. The real decision will be made by the Irish people themselves at the general election. Donegal in its by-election has shown the way. By voting for anyone who can prove they will reject imposing the IMF/EU misery, be they the United Left Alliance combination or others, is the only way to save ourselves.
 


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