- Jan 9, 2009
May's Florence speech means that it will be 2021, at the earliest, when Brexit takes place (if at all).The real Brexit negotiations are going to start when Merkel has the German elections out of the way, then May and co. will see who's what cards are been dealt. Ironically the Leave side in the pro exit media will paint it as Johnny Foreigner trying to tell Britannia what to do and ironically strengthen the exit sides hand. Looks like a Charge of the Light Brigade fiasco, Dunkirk etc
Anyone who believes that the current UK government will last until then is in cloud cuckoo land. The EU is united in its view that the UK can either have full access and limited autonomy (the Norway model), or full autonomy and limited access (the Canada model).
The UK political class is still in the nonsense "cake and eat it mode", i.e.full access and full autonomy, or at least is incapable of moving publicly from that position.
Only when the UK government is clearly united behind a coherent position will the real Brexit negotiations begin. I can't see that happening under the curent government.