Is Kenny Safe with a zero-seat gain?

TonyB

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How many seats does Kenny need to win in order to be safe in the leadership of Fine Gael?

I presume as a starting point he needs to win more than Labour. But is it enough that he wins enough seats to be the largest party in a FG/Lab government? Is he untouchable even if - say - he wins zero new seats, and Labour win, say 45?

Is his fate tied (inversely) to the fate of the Labour party? As a massive tide swings away from FF, would its attachment to Labour rather than FF spell trouble for Kenny?

In the scenario where FG have 51 seats and Labour have 45, cabinet posts would be split pretty evenly, with Gilmore Tanaiste, Labour possibly also getting Finance, and FG getting stuck with health. Kenny himself will have a good job, but with Bruton, Noonan and Varadkar fighting over enterprise and employment, most likely. There is a possibility that a separate ministry could be established to deal with "Monetary Affairs", I guess. It wouldn't involve a lot of spending (what job would!), but it would be high profile. Main point is that a lot of the FG big beasts would have no job, or a low job, and that would lead to discontent.
 


spineless

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On a bad day FG will gain 10 to 15 extra seats. I expect Labour will return 40 to 45.
 

South

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Well I'd be shocked if Fine Gael didn't win at least an extra 10 seats, if Fine Gael are returned as the largest party in the Dail with Kenny as Taoiseach then he is safe.

He is safe unless Fine Gael stay in opposition or have to go in as a junior partner
 

TonyB

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say - for example - FG wins 55 seats, and Labour 53 seats. Is Kenny still safe?
 

droghedasouth

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If Kenny become Taoiseach, he is safe.
 

TonyB

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It would be a pretty abject performance though...the best opportunity in the history of the state for a non-FF majority, and he blows it?
 

sic transit

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Yes they will pick up at least 10 seats, although I believe it will be more and could be closer to 20. Labour are likely to do very well in Dublin but do not have the candidates to capitalise in most of the rest of the country. The only possible risk to them is SF and others splitting the vote on the left.

Labour more than doubling their size is very unlikely and 45 may sound good for the base but is not really feasible this time. I think Labour can probably get to the Spring Tide total of 33. Be interesting to see how the ministries are carved up and whether FG will let Labour get Finance.
 

TonyB

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Dotski projects 61-55 FG-Lab given most recent numbers, with a constituency by constituency breakdown. The thing is that this has been consistent, and broadly based, across multiple polls. So it's not that far fetched...
 

dent

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say - for example - FG wins 55 seats, and Labour 53 seats. Is Kenny still safe?
At a point where FG would be going into government, there would be no appetite for a contest, especially after what happened the last time.
 

sic transit

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Dotski projects 61-55 FG-Lab given most recent numbers, with a constituency by constituency breakdown. The thing is that this has been consistent, and broadly based, across multiple polls. So it's not that far fetched...
If you read his comments on them the constituency numbers are not in anyway clear and in reality he is guessing in many of them, based on possible transfer patterns. I would really wonder about his 7% for FF in Cork NC!

FF and FG have machines to take on all 42 constituencies, Labour don't. To do this Labour will need to come up with at least 40 new viable candidates between now and January.
Numbers will change once the campaign begin to crystallise. If FF implode as seems likely then there is scope for Labour to get to those 50+ sets in the 2nd term but not this time.
 

Skyrocket

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FG should be aiming for an overall majority and they should talk it up. Winning only 10 seats with FF below 20% would be a MAJOR lost opportunity.
 

jayblue

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Whatever the result for FG after the next election, they will try to spin it positively as they will be in government, they currently have51 seats, so any result under 60 for FG is a bad result
 

Pat Mc Larnon

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Between 60 to 65 for FG and between 30 and 35 for Labour.
 

polcol2

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The political situation is very volatile if Kenny or anyone in FG manage to get 60+ seats it will be a credible result for them. Labour on a good day will get 40+ seats. Two strong parties will ensure that competing views are proportionally represented, no tail wagging dog accusations. A real opportunity for SF who are use to playing the long game, they could become the real opposition with FF in tatters.
 


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