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Is Michael Noonan a weak link in europe for Ireland?


sport02

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As my thread title suggests, Is Michael Noonan a weak link in europe for Ireland?

Take for example back at the start of October 2012 when talking about the promissory notes.
Michael Noonan has expressed his hope that a deal restructuring the government’s promissory note for Anglo Irish Bank could be reached in the coming weeks – a move which he says would make it easier to construct the next Budget.
“It would help me doing the Budgetary arithmetic if something could be arranged, or a statement of intent could be achieved, before the Budget,” he said.
Noonan hopeful of deal on Anglo promissory note before Budget

The budget is next week for goodness sake and as David Murphy RTE's business editor said yesterday there is no movement on such deal, being best boy in the class is leaving Ireland being ignored.

Now take Greece, Michael Noonan out of the traps saying that Ireland could not benefit from such deal.
Greek deal 'not applicable' to Ireland - The Irish Times - Mon, Nov 26, 2012

Yet today Finland, a country known not to be too favourable to the PIIGS, their finance minister said this.
Fabrizio Goria ‏@FGoria
Finnish finance minister says sees chance to consider Greece style debt relief for Ireland and Portugal
Juncker said similar yesterday while EC spokesperson says it is being explored.
Peter Spiegel ‏@SpiegelPeter
Will #Ireland & #Portugal get same benefits as #Greece's did in Tues deal? @ECspokesSimon says it's being "explored", but no decisions yet.
Did Noonan even try get us some better conditions when the Greek deal was being discussed and is he being forceful enough on the PN's issue. We have another tough budget next week and no assistance from europe to speak of on legacy debt or promissory notes.
 
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Howya

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Hard to know what is going on - it's possible that Noonan was told to stay quiet after the Greece deal on the basis that Ireland's special case was still being considered and any media pressure would adversely affect a beneficial outcome?
 

sport02

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Hard to know what is going on - it's possible that Noonan was told to stay quiet after the Greece deal on the basis that Ireland's special case was still being considered and any media pressure would adversely affect a beneficial outcome?
There does not seem to be much happening, another tough budget next week that could be made easier to construct according to Noonan if europe aided us on the PN's or atleast with intent, nothing,nada,zilch.

Pat Kenny pressed the issue of Greece deal and the PN's this morning robustly to Paschal Donaghue but not to much avail.
 

Franzoni

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Hard to know what is going on - it's possible that Noonan was told to stay quiet after the Greece deal on the basis that Ireland's special case was still being considered and any media pressure would adversely affect a beneficial outcome?
Not particularly fond of FG or Noonan but it must be hard to go into negotiations to look for a deal when your prime minister and party leader stands up in the national parliment and says he will pay back every cent and won't look for a deal in the first place..!.......
 

VHF

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@sport02 - I sense your deep frustrations with the states quo. There are technical issues associated with the swap contracts which present significant challenges for all sovereigns attempting restructuring of contractual T&Cs within bonds. Global CDS contagion will occur if credit events arise. As Buffett termed them: "financial instruments of mass destruction"
 

sport02

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@sport02 - I sense your deep frustrations with the states quo. There are technical issues associated with the swap contracts which present significant challenges for all sovereigns attempting restructuring of contractual T&Cs within bonds. Global CDS contagion will occur if credit events arise. As Buffett termed them: "financial instruments of mass destruction"
Isn't the PN deal between us the and Irish central back essentially? Why the long laboured discussions between Ireland and the ECB.
As noted Greece is on its kness and a deal is found quick smart when needed. Well Noonan would like similar before a budget next week for us and nothing.

I accept legacy debt if it happens is atleast out to 2014 but I am sure many in the government thought part of our bank deal would be done and dusted by Christmas 2012. Europe certainly not helping Noonan or is Noonan not pressing hard enough?
 

Howya

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Not particularly fond of FG or Noonan but it must be hard to go into negotiations to look for a deal when your prime minister and party leader stands up in the national parliment and says he will pay back every cent and won't look for a deal in the first place..!.......
Agreed but since when has any politician been held to account for what he has promised:(
 

ticketyboo

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Hard to know what is going on - it's possible that Noonan was told to stay quiet after the Greece deal on the basis that Ireland's special case was still being considered and any media pressure would adversely affect a beneficial outcome?
That is certainly the spin that is put on it. When they're called on the absence of a deal we'e informed that you don't rock the boat, discussions are going on , negotiations are taking place, we're battling hard behind the scenes.
I think it's a crock myself, and the negotiating that is being done by Noonan involves being on the receiving end of a thorough prostate exam, but as Christine Keeler said, "I would say that, wouldn't I"?
 

stopdoingstuff

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He is no more the weak link than all the mainstream parties who sold us out. FG, FF and Labour are out and out traitors who have been co-opted to put the European interest above the Irish interest. Do these people even believe in our sovereignty any more?
 
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M

MrFunkyBoogaloo

As my thread title suggests, Is Michael Noonan a weak link in europe for Ireland?

Take for example back at the start of October 2012 when talking about the promissory notes.




Noonan hopeful of deal on Anglo promissory note before Budget

The budget is next week for goodness sake and as David Murphy RTE's business editor said yesterday there is no movement on such deal, being best boy in the class is leaving Ireland being ignored.

Now take Greece, Michael Noonan out of the traps saying that Ireland could not benefit from such deal.
Greek deal 'not applicable' to Ireland - The Irish Times - Mon, Nov 26, 2012

Yet today Finland, a country known not to be too favourable to the PIIGS, their finance minister said this.
Fabrizio Goria ‏@FGoria


Juncker said similar yesterday while EC spokesperson says it is being explored.
Peter Spiegel ‏@SpiegelPeter


Did Noonan even try get us some better conditions when the Greek deal was being discussed and is he being forceful enough on the PN's issue. We have another tough budget next week and no assistance from europe to speak of on legacy debt or promissory notes.
Noonan and the government. 4 Irish TDs are on the EMC and it's the EMC who swan off to Brussels and deal with negotiations.

Not particularly fond of FG or Noonan but it must be hard to go into negotiations to look for a deal when your prime minister and party leader stands up in the national parliment and says he will pay back every cent and won't look for a deal in the first place..!.......
+1

He is no more the weak link than all the mainstream parties who sold us out. FG, FF and Labour are out and out traitors who have been co-opted to put the European interest about the Irish interest. Do these people even believe in our sovereignty any more?
+1
 

Grumpy Jack

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As my thread title suggests, Is Michael Noonan a weak link in europe for Ireland?

Take for example back at the start of October 2012 when talking about the promissory notes.




Noonan hopeful of deal on Anglo promissory note before Budget

The budget is next week for goodness sake and as David Murphy RTE's business editor said yesterday there is no movement on such deal, being best boy in the class is leaving Ireland being ignored.

Now take Greece, Michael Noonan out of the traps saying that Ireland could not benefit from such deal.
Greek deal 'not applicable' to Ireland - The Irish Times - Mon, Nov 26, 2012

Yet today Finland, a country known not to be too favourable to the PIIGS, their finance minister said this.
Fabrizio Goria ‏@FGoria


Juncker said similar yesterday while EC spokesperson says it is being explored.
Peter Spiegel ‏@SpiegelPeter


Did Noonan even try get us some better conditions when the Greek deal was being discussed and is he being forceful enough on the PN's issue. We have another tough budget next week and no assistance from europe to speak of on legacy debt or promissory notes.
The two cases are completely separate.

The Greek loans involve bilateral loans with individual EU states, the EFSF and the IMF.

The Irish promissory notes are between Ireland and the ECB. It was a strictly 'Made in Ireland' stroke by Cowen and Lenihan that has tied the hands of this and future governments. They are legal instruments than cannot simply be torn up without consequences - legal, economic and political.

Cliff Taylor in the Business Post is worth reading on this subject - he believes Ireland has been very close to securing a deal on several occasions yet each time, for some reason, the ECB pulls back at the last minute. (The main suspects for this stalling/refusal are understood to reside in another building in Frankfurt.) Taylor still believes a deal will happen but not when. Peter Spiegal of the FT also believes a deal is in the offing and expected it sometime this month - he said this on Newstalk in early October.

Ireland and Portugal should benefit from any cuts to Greek interest rates and lengthened maturities for the EFSF loans under their Troika agreements - just as they did the last time Greece was cut a break on these.

However, the PNs are a whole different ball game in which Ireland is all on its ownsome because they are totally outside the troika deal as they were cut between Lenihan/Finance/Central Bank and the ECB before the Troika bailout.

I expect Noonan and the govt are playing the quiet game here because the ECB will not move - nor not want to be seen to move - under political pressure. They learned that lesson the hard way last January and March. Also, granting any concession to Ireland on the PNs sets a dangerous precedent given the unique and highly questionable origin of the PNs in the first place.

On a related point, I'm surprised there hasn't been more attention paid to Kenny's statement in the Dail yesterday on the PNs - either here, in the Irish media or from Europe.

Kenny told Shane Ross:

It is the intention of the Minister for Finance, on behalf of the Government, not to have to pay the €3bn that is due in March 2013
Kenny vows to get Anglo concession after Greek deal - Irish, Business - Independent.ie

That is a very specific use of language - what exactly is Kenny saying there?

He expects a deal by then? Or he expects not to pay the €3.1bn due whatever happens?

Can you see how that can be interpreted in different ways.

I'm equally curious about what Kenny is saying here and why this hasn't been picked up by anyone because you do not use a phrase like that by accident - especially when such delicate and complex negotiations are ongoing in the background.
 
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fuque

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a weak link?!? try useless fat feta cheese mouse
 

sport02

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The two cases are completely separate.

The Greek loans involve bilateral loans with individual EU states, the EFSF and the IMF.

The Irish promissory notes are between Ireland and the ECB. It was a strictly 'Made in Ireland' stroke by Cowen and Lenihan that has tied the hands of this and future governments. They are legal instruments than cannot simply be torn up without consequences - legal, economic and political.

Cliff Taylor in the Business Post is worth reading on this subject - he believes Ireland has been very close to securing a deal on several occasions yet each time, for some reason, the ECB pulls back at the last minute. (The main suspects for this stalling/refusal are understood to reside in another building in Frankfurt.) Taylor still believes a deal will happen but not when. Peter Spiegal of the FT also believes a deal is in the offing and expected it sometime this month - he said this on Newstalk in early October.

Ireland and Portugal should benefit from any cuts to Greek interest rates and lengthened maturities for the EFSF loans under their Troika agreements - just as they did the last time Greece was cut a break on these.

However, the PNs are a whole different ball game in which Ireland is all on its ownsome because they are totally outside the troika deal as they were cut between Lenihan/Finance/Central Bank and the ECB before the Troika bailout.

I expect Noonan and the govt are playing the quiet game here because the ECB will not move - nor not want to be seen to move - under political pressure. Also, granting any concession to Ireland on the PNs sets a dangerous precedent given the unique and highly questionable origin of the PNs in the first place.

On a related point, I'm surprised there hasn't been more attention paid to Kenny's statement in the Dail yesterday on the PNs - either here, in the Irish media or from Europe.

Kenny told Shane Ross:



Kenny vows to get Anglo concession after Greek deal - Irish, Business - Independent.ie

That is a very specific use of language - what exactly is Kenny saying there?

He expects a deal by then? Or he expects not to pay the €3.1bn due whatever happens?

Can you see how that can be interpreted in different ways.

I'm equally curious about what Kenny is saying here and why this hasn't been picked up by anyone because you do not use a phrase like that by accident - especially when such delicate and complex negotiations are ongoing in the background.
I take your points on board but a)Noonan and co gave time targets and have missed.
B)Kenny said hope not to pay and not won't pay and C) If Kennys statement from yesterday is so seismic, can we
take it that Noonan will apply such to the budget next week as he indicated in October he would
wish to do so?
 

Grumpy Jack

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I take your points on board but a)Noonan and co gave time targets and have missed.
B)Kenny said hope not to pay and not won't pay and C) If Kennys statement from yesterday is so seismic, can we
take it that Noonan will apply such to the budget next week as he indicated in October he would
wish to do so?
A. Which is precisely why he is probably playing it down now having been stung in the past by the ECB.

B. Kenny used the phrase 'It is the intention...not to have to pay...' - that is very specific language which can be read several ways. He did not use the word 'hope' - it is disengenuous of you to suggest he did.

C. I did not say it was seismic - again you are being disengenuous. I said I was 'curious' as to why he said what he said because it was such a specific use of language.

Secondly, if there is no deal before the budget nor in the first months of 2013, I wouldn't expect Noonan to show the Government's hand before March 31 because if it is the intention of the govt not to pay whatever happens, then that will be 'seismic' - and the likely consequences equally 'seismic'. What I do think is that yesterday's statement was a subtle public airing of the government's current thinking - something that may have already been communicated to the ECB in private.

It could be bluff. It could be they are attempting to buy further time. It could mean they intend to pull another stroke similar to last year's. It could be a signal they intend to renege on the PN and hope the consequences won't be too rough. Or it may mean nothing at all.

I am simply surmising here based on what I believe is curious use of specific language by Kenny in the Dail. What Kenny said yesterday was no accident or stumble on his part, IMHO.
 
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sport02

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Speaks volumes on Noonan's part whatever about Portugal. Pathetic.

Paul Cunningham ‏@RTENewsPaulC
#Schäuble - neither Ireland nor Portugal have put this idea to me [ie availing of bailout benefits recently given to Greece]
 

emulator

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Speaks volumes on Noonan's part whatever about Portugal. Pathetic.

Paul Cunningham ‏@RTENewsPaulC
No, but he's negotiating in the background so we're told. Softly softly.... that soft he's not actually saying anything.
 

sport02

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Very recently Brian Hayes said our debt was unsustainable.
http://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CCwQFjAA&url=http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2012/10/19/irish-junior-finance-minister-says-national-debt-is-unsustainable/&ei=TNW8ULbyCtCzhAfVvoDoAg&usg=AFQjCNF3Z6WpWqq84bv5lxznUJFQUh0TrQ&sig2=-BpCo2J7_kCkckhqSUpX-Q

Today Noonan says this.
Owen Callan ‏@OwenCallan
*NOONAN SAYS `DEFAULT' NOT IN IRISH VOCABULARY; DEBT SUSTAINABLE
Keep telling Germany and the troika that.
If it's so sustainable, let's pay the promissory notes on time and look for no legacy debt deal.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Not particularly fond of FG or Noonan but it must be hard to go into negotiations to look for a deal when your prime minister and party leader stands up in the national parliment and says he will pay back every cent and won't look for a deal in the first place..!.......
Well Kenny said no such thing, so its hard to see what your point is.
 

hiding behind a poster

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No, but he's negotiating in the background so we're told. Softly softly.... that soft he's not actually saying anything.
So you're out in Europe, at all the meetings, is that it?

Or else you're talking through your Swiss Roll.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Isn't the PN deal between us the and Irish central back essentially? Why the long laboured discussions between Ireland and the ECB.
Because the Irish Central Bank, like all Eurozone central banks, operates under strict legal limits laid down by the ECB. Think about it, if the various central banks had any freedom of movement, you wouldn't have a single currency anymore. They'd all start finding excuses to print money, under pressure from their governments.

As noted Greece is on its kness and a deal is found quick smart when needed. Well Noonan would like similar before a budget next week for us and nothing.
I severely doubt that Noonan wants a deal similar to the Greek one. Have you seen it? Further massive cutbacks, way in excess of anything needed here.

I accept legacy debt if it happens is atleast out to 2014 but I am sure many in the government thought part of our bank deal would be done and dusted by Christmas 2012. Europe certainly not helping Noonan or is Noonan not pressing hard enough?
As is endlessly pointed out, this is not something on which you negotiate in public. Again, think about it - if you're the ECB, and are prepared to reluctantly cut some kind of deal on this, and then Noonan makes a string of public statements that politically make it imperative for him to have a deal by December 5th 2012 and not a day later - then what kind of deal will you, the ECB, offer him?
 

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