Is Sinn Féin a threat to Labour?

TommyO'Brien

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This Dáil has been the most bizarre in history. FF declined, then shot into the 40s when Cowen took over, before plummeting to 13%.

FG went into the 30s, then the 20s, then back to the 30s.

Labour spent most of the Dáil stuck in the low teens, then stormed into the 20s (30s if one accepts a rather dodgy Lansdowne poll).

Sinn Féin rattled along at the bottom, before now beginning to climb to the mid teens.

It looks as through public opinion moved in phases:
Phase 1: A move of some right of centre voters to FG, pushing it into the 30s where it has remained.
Phase 2: The move of some public sector workers from FF to Labour, along with some move from FG to it.

Are we now witnessing Phase 3. If Phase 1 was Fine Gael's phase and phase 2 was Labour's, will Phase 3 be Sinn Féin's?

How will that impact on Labour?

In my view, Labour may find itself between a rock and a hard place. It has SF on its left and FG on its right. If Labour moves to the left to counteract SF, it risks tipping some of its centrist vote to Fine Gael. But if it moves to the right to maintain its centrist support it risks being outflanked on the left with SF eating into its left and PS support. No matter which way it moves, it risks losing a chunk of support in the other direction to someone else.

So just as FG had its "ah fukk!" moment when its role as the focus as the alternative to FF was undermined, and it saw Labour eating into its social democratic support, so Labour may be facing into its "ah fukk!" moment as someone else begins to eclipse it (and certainly Pearse Doherty on the budget eclipsed Joan Burton on the left, while Michael Noonan eclipsed her on the centre and the right).

So what do you think, guys?
 


brine

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I thought Joan Burton did the best on the budget.

Pearse Doherty generally shouted a lot (I think the other Shinners are better than him).
Noonan sneered and played to the Dail gallery (who are not the people of Ireland).
Joan Burton calmly, intelligently and honestly dissected the wrongness of the whole charade and remembered to mention to the 50% of the electorate that the Dail often ignores.
 

TommyO'Brien

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I thought Joan Burton did the best on the budget.

Pearse Doherty generally shouted a lot (I think the other Shinners are better than him).
Noonan sneered and played to the Dail gallery (who are not the people of Ireland).
Joan Burton calmly, intelligently and honestly dissected the wrongness of the whole charade and remembered to mention to the 50% of the electorate that the Dail often ignores.
Actually, even Labour TDs thought she was sh1te! So you are in a very small minority. But there is a separate thread on that.
 

Marcella

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Yes.

Pearse Doherty was brilliant yesterday, all my friends and family spoke of nothing else except his speech.
 

rockofcashel

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Will also admit that I spoke to a Labour person today who admitted that they thought Doherty was brilliant yesterday also.

Are they a danger to Labour. Yes and no. In fact, in many places, they might actually be a help to Labour.

There is no doubt, that any resurgence in SF's vote in Dublin for example, will have the potential to cost Labour a couple of seats. However, SF picking up "left" votes in rural areas, and convincing people to "transfer left" could gain Labour a few seats where they may not have gotten them. Also if SF get out younger voters who might not have voted, then they may continue down for Labour if SF candidates don't make it

But I think their biggest problem right now.. is Pearse Doherty.

In Doherty, and I hate to put so much on his shoulders so early.. SF have found a "winner".. and with perfect timing.. just after that stunning Donegal victory.

There is no doubt but he's impressed people since he got elected.. and he's a fresh face

That's what people might go for this time.. I mean I think Michael Noonan has done well since he went back as FG spokesperson on Finance.. but he's been around the place for decades.. has he anything new to offer ?
 

BlackLion

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Nah only a threat to our freedom
 

Mushroom

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Pearse Doherty was brilliant yesterday, all my friends and family spoke of nothing else except his speech.
What a very strange family! Dreadful weather, worse budget, Man U playing Valentia on the box yet all they could talk about was Pearse's speech!

Shower of loopers! - better move away from home as soon as you've finished your Junior Cert, Marcie!
 

TommyO'Brien

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Will also admit that I spoke to a Labour person today who admitted that they thought Doherty was brilliant yesterday also.

Are they a danger to Labour. Yes and no. In fact, in many places, they might actually be a help to Labour.

There is no doubt, that any resurgence in SF's vote in Dublin for example, will have the potential to cost Labour a couple of seats. However, SF picking up "left" votes in rural areas, and convincing people to "transfer left" could gain Labour a few seats where they may not have gotten them. Also if SF get out younger voters who might not have voted, then they may continue down for Labour if SF candidates don't make it

But I think their biggest problem right now.. is Pearse Doherty.

In Doherty, and I hate to put so much on his shoulders so early.. SF have found a "winner".. and with perfect timing.. just after that stunning Donegal victory.

There is no doubt but he's impressed people since he got elected.. and he's a fresh face

That's what people might go for this time.. I mean I think Michael Noonan has done well since he went back as FG spokesperson on Finance.. but he's been around the place for decades.. has he anything new to offer ?
Doherty is impressive. The problem for Labour is whether or not to try to counteract SF. To do that risks losing some of its new non-socialist, more centrist, support. But if it tactically works to keep that centrist support, SF could well clean up on the left, with SF winning seats that Labour until now looked like winning. So they risk losing support either on its left flank or right flank.
 

rockofcashel

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Doherty is impressive. The problem for Labour is whether or not to try to counteract SF. To do that risks losing some of its new non-socialist, more centrist, support. But if it tactically works to keep that centrist support, SF could well clean up on the left, with SF winning seats that Labour until now looked like winning. So they risk losing support either on its left flank or right flank.
Of course it is a fine line they are walking.. but if I were in Labour, and had to decide.. would I chase the "left/hard" votes floating around.. or the oodles and oodles of soft left/centre former FF votes that are up for grabs...

Quite simply FF had the public service union workers in their pockets for decades.. Labour can grab them this time.. if they do, they are set for decades.. if it were you, would you risk that chasing after the likes of a second or third seat in Dublin ?

I wouldn't
 

RahenyFG

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I would actually say Sinn Fein is not a threat to Labour but more a threat to Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. The large growth in support in polls that SF are enjoying is largely at Fianna Fail's expense not so much Fine Gael. That said, Sinn Fein will be in direct competition with Labour for seats in working class Dublin.
 

The Heretic

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I agree Doherty sounds good and lot of the Shinners do good work locally but for feck sake if they ever got a sniff of power they'd have us all swearing allegiance to Peig Sayers and any other bloody gaelgoer.
Should that ever happen in my lifetime, I'll join the Tailiban and take up a Koran and a Kalashnikov.
 

Craiced

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Absolutely. Sinn Fein are going to kill Labour at the next election where voters have a choice.

Labour are haemorrhaging their traditional working class base to Sinn Fein.
 

Spirit Of Newgrange

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there isnt a right wing party with a spine or any balls in ireland.
.
just bland populist center parties and looney lefties who spend spend spend.........
ireland is like a bankrupt football club. Having been bailed out, we will go and spend ourselves into penury again
 

Craiced

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Of course it is a fine line they are walking.. but if I were in Labour, and had to decide.. would I chase the "left/hard" votes floating around.. or the oodles and oodles of soft left/centre former FF votes that are up for grabs...

Quite simply FF had the public service union workers in their pockets for decades.. Labour can grab them this time.. if they do, they are set for decades.. if it were you, would you risk that chasing after the likes of a second or third seat in Dublin ?

I wouldn't
Rock of Sense. That's it in a nutshell - Joan Burton will 'relax' tomorrow after her pasting tonight on primetime.
 

Halo

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With out being biased here, doherty i believe wiped the floor with burton tonight. It has not been the best of weeks for the labour party since rabbite became a youtube hit. Fg could see themseleves with a healthy lead in the next poll.
 

Catalpa

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TBH I think SF are more of a threat to FF right now than Labour.

Many FF supporters would rather roast in the 7th pit of Hell than cast a ballot for ...the Blueshirts.:eek:

Outside of the urban areas Labour are seen as a bunch of wishy washy pinkos:oops:

SF would want to emphasise their ALL IRELAND credentials and let the punters know they are the real Republican Party...;)

I certainly think they could pull more disgruntled FF types than typical Labour supporters.
 

Ulster-Lad

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That was a very intriguing Prime Time.

2 major points of note to me.

1. Labour through Joan Burton are as I have suspected far removed from the real world and are champagne socialists. They will protect the Feudal classes just like Fianna Fail, the PDs and the Greens and some of the independents have done. And the middle and lower classes become more impoversihed at the expense of the neofeudalists.

2. Sinn Fein have been an elephant in the room. The truth of the matter is, most of the members and political representitives of Sinn Fein live in the real world. Some of them run small businesses, some of them are managers, some of them are self employed and some of them are Del Boy type wheelers and dealers and horse traders. In other words a lot of them are entrepreneuers who work in real markets and know how dynamic the price mechanism is and how demand and supply and forever changing equilibriums really work.

This was reflected in the language used by Doherty in how to deal with the Bondholders as opposed to Burtons condescending remarks. Doherty knows how markets work, the bondholders took a risk, the risk failed. Tough its called capitalism. Nobody else should pay for it. Would I expect the taxpayer to pay my bet on a horse that lost in a race? No way! I took a bet, it lost, I lose. Next time, pay more attention to form or whatever.

As with enterprise, if it doesn't work out, it fails. Hard luck, but sure sort out what you can and have another go at something else armed with the worldly experience of failing. Thats how proper capitalism works. You cannot expect other people to cover the losses. And only people who work in real markets truly understand that from simply experiencing it.

Joan Burton cannot fully grasp this as too, the majority of the politicians as they are mostly bureaucrats and pen pushers.

Now I do not know for sure, now Sinn Fein would deal with the Feudal classes in government, but their real life experiences would evoke a sense of confidence in how to deal with the real domestic economy.

Thats why most economists are clueless, they have never been wheeling and dealing in real markets and this inhibits their understanding of the dynamics and psychology of these markets. They also fail to understand the human action and behavioural aspects of the real economy and shelter themselves to using complex econometrics to determine social choice for all of us from blackboards with the ivory towers.

Sinn Fein also stand up against the advent of the tyranny of the IMF and the EU, are anti-euro and believe in the domestic economy as the source of wealth creation.

There are a lot of other issues that I would need clarification and I would of course have heatedly debates with them over some issues, but they are miles ahead of all the other crony capitalists of the other parties in Dail Eireann when it comes to nurturing real wealth creation from future potential entrepreneurs.

Thats my 2 cent.
I took this from Cassandra in another thread. That in reality sums it up quite well I believe. The nail head. Thanks Cassandra
 

bogtrotter

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Will also admit that I spoke to a Labour person today who admitted that they thought Doherty was brilliant yesterday also.

Are they a danger to Labour. Yes and no. In fact, in many places, they might actually be a help to Labour.

There is no doubt, that any resurgence in SF's vote in Dublin for example, will have the potential to cost Labour a couple of seats. However, SF picking up "left" votes in rural areas, and convincing people to "transfer left" could gain Labour a few seats where they may not have gotten them. Also if SF get out younger voters who might not have voted, then they may continue down for Labour if SF candidates don't make it

But I think their biggest problem right now.. is Pearse Doherty.

In Doherty, and I hate to put so much on his shoulders so early.. SF have found a "winner".. and with perfect timing.. just after that stunning Donegal victory.

There is no doubt but he's impressed people since he got elected.. and he's a fresh face

That's what people might go for this time.. I mean I think Michael Noonan has done well since he went back as FG spokesperson on Finance.. but he's been around the place for decades.. has he anything new to offer ?

I agree...The time has come when Sinn Fein and labour will have to look at their future as an alternative to FF and FG and stop thinking of each other as fighting for the same vote....There is a real opportunity now for a real alternative to the right wing policies of FF/FG and Sinn Fein and Labour must now give us that choice....I appeal to Labour to do the right thing and put the country first...Turn away from FG and look to your natural partners in government...Likewise to Sinn Fein ....
 


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