Is the English Labour Party Finished?



midlander12

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More depressing news for Labour in the latest opinion poll and local byelection results:-

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects · 2h2 hours ago

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 28% (+1)
UKIP: 11% (-)
LDEM: 9% (-2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via YouGov / 14 - 15 Nov)


Annandale N. (Dumfries & Galloway):
CON: 57.4% (+11.4)
SNP: 21.1% (+11.7)
LAB: 17.2% (-8.2)
GRN: 4.3% (-7.5)

Abbey (Bath & NE Somerset) result:
CON: 32.8% (+2.4)
LD: 25.6% (+4.7)
GRN: 23.6% (-4.5)
LAB: 11.8% (-4.9)
IND: 4.0% (+4.0)
UKIP: 2.2% (+2.2)

Haldens (Welwyn Hatfield) result:
CON: 34.1% (-1.3)
LAB: 30.8% (-6.9)
LDEM: 29.6% (+17.8)
GRN: 5.5% (-9.5

Misterton (Harborough) result:
CON: 50.4% (-24.7)
LAB: 23.3% (-1.6)
LDEM: 15.1% (+15.1)
UKIP: 11.2% (+11.2)

The Tories held the 3 seats they had and gained the fourth from the Greens. In the one Lab/Con marginal(Haldens) the Labour vote fell by 7%, and indeed it fell in all four seats. The Tories also gained 3 seats last week, two of them in Scotland. It seems that for the moment they have stopped haemhorraging seats the way they were during the summer, with Lab making no progress at all. Obviously these are based on tiny numbers and not in string Lab areas, but if Lab are to make any progress in England they will have show that they and the not the LD's are the main opposition to the Tories.

 

midlander12

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Corbyn's admirers on the site have gone remarkably silent since he was reelected. Today's offered more evidence of Labour's irrelevance, judging politicalbetting.com's description of McDonnell's reply to Hammond's Autumn Statement:-

He was heard in almost silence by his own MPs. The Telegraph declared “John McDonnell reacted to the Autumn Statement like he was hungover. Thank God it’s being abolished”.

In fact the only assertion from McDonnell that got any response was when he said “..inconclusion”.

A poll out today showed McDonnell with a 7% rating of whether he or Hammond was most trusted to run the economy (Hammond got 36%).
 

ffc

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Corbyn's admirers on the site have gone remarkably silent since he was reelected. Today's offered more evidence of Labour's irrelevance, judging politicalbetting.com's description of McDonnell's reply to Hammond's Autumn Statement:-

He was heard in almost silence by his own MPs. The Telegraph declared “John McDonnell reacted to the Autumn Statement like he was hungover. Thank God it’s being abolished”.

In fact the only assertion from McDonnell that got any response was when he said “..inconclusion”.

A poll out today showed McDonnell with a 7% rating of whether he or Hammond was most trusted to run the economy (Hammond got 36%).
A poll out just after Brown became PM gave him a 42% lead on economic competence over Cameron and Osborne. But Brown lost the election.
Corbyn he is ripping Theresa May to pieces in PMQ's. She is dreadful, sounds like an out of touch robot.
As for Hammond, he is determined to drive the UK economy over a cliff, along with jolly Boris and daft Davis. Give it two years and this tory govt will be hated. They'll be lucky they are not run out of the country. As O'Leary said, if their IQ was one point lower they would be plants. '
 

storybud1

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A poll out just after Brown became PM gave him a 42% lead on economic competence over Cameron and Osborne. But Brown lost the election.
Corbyn he is ripping Theresa May to pieces in PMQ's. She is dreadful, sounds like an out of touch robot.
As for Hammond, he is determined to drive the UK economy over a cliff, along with jolly Boris and daft Davis. Give it two years and this tory govt will be hated. They'll be lucky they are not run out of the country. As O'Leary said, if their IQ was one point lower they would be plants. '
Corbyn couldn't rip a tissue to shreds let alone a person ? He is a fookwits fookwit, Wait and see if French, Dutch and even German voters change the landscape.

Corbyn is simply rubbish and always has been, if you followed his history you can easily see what a fooking Turnip he is and like Enda was the only guy left after a disaster. He is no leader of anyone except his own delusions.
 

Telstar 62

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It was the shadow Chancellor's big moment at the despatch box,
and some Labour MPs were transfixed by their mobile phones.

 

midlander12

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A poll out just after Brown became PM gave him a 42% lead on economic competence over Cameron and Osborne. But Brown lost the election.
Corbyn he is ripping Theresa May to pieces in PMQ's. She is dreadful, sounds like an out of touch robot.
As for Hammond, he is determined to drive the UK economy over a cliff, along with jolly Boris and daft Davis. Give it two years and this tory govt will be hated. They'll be lucky they are not run out of the country. As O'Leary said, if their IQ was one point lower they would be plants. '
Actually I agree with you about the Tories which only goes to show how poorly Lab are faring. They don't have two years (there will be an election before that) and anyway there's no evidence time will change anything - this govt is 18 mths in power (or 6.5 years if you include the Coalition years), it's not exactly brand spanking new. As for Brown, his lead lasted about 3 months, and evaporated the minute he bottled out of an early election in Sept 07 (one which he probably would have lost anyway).
 

midlander12

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Poll results for November so far:-

20 Nov 42 28 9 11 Con +14

18 Nov 41 29 7 12 Con +12

15 Nov 42 28 8 11 Con +14

14 Nov 42 33 10 7 Con +9

4 Nov 40 32 6 13 Con +8

1 Nov 41 27 10 11 Con +14

Last night's council byelections confirmed recent trends. Only one (Reedley in Pendle) was in a Lab/Con marginal, and the Tories gained it from Lab in an 8% swing. Of the rest, the Tories held 3, Lab held 3 and the LD's held one, but the Lab vote went down 25% in two of their seats in Newcastle and Mansfield.
 

Dame_Enda

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Westminster voting intention:
CON: 38% (-3)
LAB: 31% (+2)
UKIP: 13% (+1)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 4% (-)

(via Opinium / 13 - 16 DecPublic approval ratings (Approve / Disapprove):
May: 42 / 27
Corbyn: 21 / 47
Farron: 15 / 32
Nuttall: 11 / 33
Sturgeon: 26 / 38
(Opinium)

Opinium was the most accurate Brexit pollster.

Folks after what's just happened it's clear that in the present populist movement in the West brought on by the 2008 crisis, that when voters perceive the Establishment ganging up on someone, it helps them with angry voters. So don't write Corbyn off yet
 
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midlander12

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Westminster voting intention:
CON: 38% (-3)
LAB: 31% (+2)
UKIP: 13% (+1)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 4% (-)

(via Opinium / 13 - 16 DecPublic approval ratings (Approve / Disapprove):
May: 42 / 27
Corbyn: 21 / 47
Farron: 15 / 32
Nuttall: 11 / 33
Sturgeon: 26 / 38
(Opinium)

Opinium was the most accurate Brexit pollster.

Folks after what's just happened it's clear that in the present populist movement in the West brought on by the 2008 crisis, that when voters perceive the Establishment ganging up on someone, it helps them with angry voters. So don't write Corbyn off yet
Baffled by your conclusion, as the Opinium poll is disastrous for Corbyn.

There was a really interesting YouGov poll yesterday (see it on politicalbetting.com) on how those who voted Remain and Leave would vote in a future GE. On the Remain side, you would be looking at a hung parliament with Labour leading the Tories 35/31, with the LD's on 19, Greens 6 and UKIP 0 (!!!). The contrast on the Leave side is stark - Tories 53, UKIP 24, Lab 14, the rest barely registering. Obviously the LD showing among Remain voters would threaten some Tory seats around London and places like Oxfordshire, but this is a really disturbing vista for Labour - virtually all their northern strongholds voted Leave, some by almost 70/30. Their best hope is that the Leave vote splits between the Tories and UKIP so they can hold these seats. However, Labour's 40 most marginal seats include 24 (almost all in the north) which voted at least 55% Leave and would fall to the Tories on swings of 4% or less. Furthermore, if the election runs past the end of 2018, I understand we are into the new constituency boundaries which are even more hostile to Labour.
 

Telstar 62

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Labour hope to win the Copeland by-election by selecting a working-class
candidate with strong connections to the nuclear industry.

 

making waves

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Reed's resignation is part of the ongoing guerrilla campaign against Corbyn by the Blairites. Reed is being well looked after by a nuclear industry that doesn't want an anti-Trident leader of the LP.
 

midlander12

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Copeland is no 31 on the Tories' target list (on the basis of current constituency boundaries) but Labour have held it non-stop since 1983 (it used to be Jack 'Dr Strangelove' Cunningham's seat). In a GE I think the Tories would have a hope of taking it, but in a byelection situation Lab should have enough resources to hold it. The constituency voted 62% Leave, so they had better ensure they run a Brexiteer and/or hope that the Tories and UKIP split the Leave vote between them.
 

blinding

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Copeland is no 31 on the Tories' target list (on the basis of current constituency boundaries) but Labour have held it non-stop since 1983 (it used to be Jack 'Dr Strangelove' Cunningham's seat). In a GE I think the Tories would have a hope of taking it, but in a byelection situation Lab should have enough resources to hold it. The constituency voted 62% Leave, so they had better ensure they run a Brexiteer and/or hope that the Tories and UKIP split the Leave vote between them.
I hope that 60% make their feelings know in the by-election .
 


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