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Is the Future Blue?

DOD

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Aug 25, 2003
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As ye might have guessed, I am no fan of Fine Gael. However, I have been looking at the respective states of FG and FF and I must say FG look to be in much better shape. YFG are quite well organised in comparison to OFF, and why Enda Kenny is hardly Taoiseach material, FG have much more to offer in the way of future leadership figures. The likes of Naughton and Enright as opposed to ? well, no one basically. The standard of FF elected reps is just terrible. So while I still have no time for their politics, given their superior calibre of candidates and the increasingly euro-yuppy profile of the Irish voter, are FG about to reverse the dominance that FF have enjoyed? In short, is the future blue?
 


blue33

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If SF continue to grow, it will be FF votes and seats that they take. If FF can no longer relie on the soft nationalist vote that has historically always kept them in power, people may start to relaise that they don't actually stand for anything; this may also lead to a loss of votes to Labour.

The only party that really drains FG votes is the PDs. If the Pds could be badly damoged in the next couple of elections, they could be bust. Without the PDs, FG would have the potential to gain a lot more seats.

With FF failing, FG would be filling a unique position on the spectrem, and could potentially emerge as the strongest party in Irish politics.
 

KingKane

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kingkane
I think DOD is being to see how things may well pan out.

There exists an opportunity for FG to dominate the centre ground and right of Irish politics. It is contingent on a number of things happening some of which are within FG controls and some not. One is that the PDs are sidelined sufficiently in electoral terms such that they close up shop, or retreat to non-electoral status.

Given their current 8 seats, I would consider it likely that Parlon, Sexton, both O'Malleys are very vulnerable, with McDowell, Liz O'Donnell, Grealish and Harney in that order next up. If the PDs had only the last 3, I think they would be finished as a party. Grealish and O'Donnell would seek new homes and Harney would be the David Owen Irish politics. I say that because they have failed to get people elected in local elections to support the TDs, and Senators, the pyrimad won't stand.

FF are not the party organisationally that they once were but they are not impotent either.

For those who question if FF and SF would go into government after the next GE, it should be noted that if FF go under 70 then SF may not have the numbers necessary to shore then up, not to mind the inclination as we have been told by SF supporters here and elsewhere.

If FF fall under 65 and FG get over 55 and FG are in government, what way will FF lean in order to recover support, left to fend off SF and Labour, or right to hoover up PD support and recover losses to FG? I suspect to the left as it is more straightforward. However, in doing so FF will concede forever any claim to financial responsiblity.
 

campbeca

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Apr 11, 2005
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Good thread so far. I wouldn't put too much stock in the state of YFG and OFF, a party can always get people in to run who have real world experience which is generally better than having been a hack since one entered college.

I still think FF won't lose support any time soon because the alternative is a rainbow which would be a far too unstable to go the 5 years and that is very important
 

rockofcashel

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you said you were a teetotaller DOD.

Your a lying b'stard :evil:

As for Blue and KK, sorry lads, while DOD's analysis may the stuff of wet dreams to the majority of hard core FG'ers, it doesn't represent anything like the reality.

FF may seem to have many useless Parliamentarians, but when did that ever stop them. They only need 10 or 12 to keep the whole thing going in the Dail, and the rest of them tend to the parishes.

As for where they might go if FG were in Government (still highly unlikely if FG posters are completely honest), they'll go every way. Thats always been FF's strongest point. They have the ability to be everything to everybody.

Now, while that will erode in time, I don't think it will erode fast enough for FG to benefit.

If you want me to be completely honest, the differences between the two parties boils down to one thing. Ruthlessness. They can be, FG can't.

If a FG/Lab government were stumbling from pillar to post like the FF/PD one has, they'd be cutting you lot to ribbons inside and outside the Dail. FG simply aren't doing that.

To be honest, I think while the next election has already started for FG, the FF dog is still lying sleeping. The Labour dog is practically comatose. Wait till Bertie and the Boys really flex their muscles. I don't think Enda will know what hit him.
 

Red-Devolutionary

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ha ha ha :D :D :D :D
i know politics can change, and old boundaries and allegiances are breaking down, but is someone seriously suggesting Fine Gael are going to go on to be the biggest and most dominant party in irish politics.

:shock:

eh, reality check, please! Labour have a better chance of being the 2nd party in the state in the next 20 years, or alternatively Sinn Fein have a better chance of being the 3rd biggest party. in the next 10 - depending on labour getting its act and strategy together or not.
:roll:
while i agree if teh PDs do implode (quite likely after the next election)FG will increase support, its not really certain all would go to FG, i think many would go to FF as that is where they came from and not withstanding idiotic motions from waterford at the ard fheis - charlie JH is not around anymore to have PDs crusade on. 8)

and lovely liz could even end up in labour or greens considering she is one of the most vocal opponents to govt in the last years (a sad reflection on the official opposition) im sure i read she used to canvass for ruairi quinn years before her fall to the dark side to the regressive un-democrats, but unlike most of her collegaues she is a genuine liberal.
- but she'd probably be the only one and i wouldnt hold my breath for implosion as that was predicted the last time as well.

but even if PDs implode and most join FG that is nto enough to raise FG
above FF levels unless we see some serious seismic shifts. teh reality is that FF is the second most succesful party in europe after the swedish labour party, is enda kenny really the person that is going to overturn the last 70 years of election history? i dont think so, he has not really electrified anything, electrocuting is more like it! :wink:

the other issue is the long term reviews they did after the last Gen elections, al reports stated that fine gael may in the short term recover support but in the long term they were in for a long period of terminal decline that would see them fall below not only 20% but if i recall from teh newspapers leaks about them even reachign below 15%. naturally laboru handing them a crutch for this electino made them relevant again and even somewhat viable - though i dont honestly see a FG/LAb Govt as a real possibility the next election. still i think it still just puts off the ineveitable.

you cannot have 3 conservative parties as teh main players the country - and you certainly cant have 2 opposition parties that are both conservatice catch all parties that base themselves on not being the other party - and FF has corenred the if youre irish, catholic and gaa YOURE ONE OF US, FG has been wrongly or rightly been tarnished the fat farmerr west brit party(by FF & SF) he fact that theyre allies of the british conservatives, does no favours in that regard - this state has 80 years of democracy - th whole no policies just personalities thing has to run out of steam (it might have some road to travel in eastern europe with just 15 years of democracy) , so personalities are not the issue since the 80 with CJH and Dr GF especially when irish cnservative poltiics today is so full of mediocrities. plus coming into the fourth generation of voters after the civl war the whoe tribal thign is starting to break down.

with so many educated and well traveled voters we shall see a further break down fo tribalism and an incrasing search for policies to give solutions for the lack of services in ireland in comparison to european countries - i think people will start to realise the reason is social democracy has been in power in coutnries every other time, and with FG going further to the right, at the same time that PDs & FF seems incerasinlgly like the same party and when lab or sf will be crucial to forming governments, it seems ridiculous to suggest FG will overtake FF, barrign half the cabinet being charged for corruption while still in office.
FG would need to look at changing direction again or else going in with FF, and that would of coruse open the whole game up to just why cant they agree how to spell Fine/Fianna and join up (that is the only difference aprt from colour of shirts, right?)
:wink:
so, i guess time will tell, btu meantime, we shall all watch with interest (and probably disappointment as civil war politics tries to reasert its backward grip on this country again at the next election).
ho hum :roll:
 

geraghd

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Dec 22, 2003
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474
Well whilst Id like to think FG will outstrip FF completely and become the new FF as it were in terms of dominance, FF will be around for a long time yet. But what I think will happen, is a certain steady increase in SF support over the next couple of decades. As DOD has said support will flow from FF to SF, and assuming the PDs are still very small, FG will be the only party to legitimately counter SF. in effect, instead of the old FF-FG rivalry, it will be a SF-FG rivalry, with Labour and FF still being fairly strong but politics centering around SF and FG. So to add to the original post: The future is most certainly Blue and Green!
 

CJH

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As DOD has said support will flow from FF to SF, and assuming the PDs are still very small, FG will be the only party to legitimately counter SF. in effect, instead of the old FF-FG rivalry, it will be a SF-FG rivalry, with Labour and FF still being fairly strong but politics centering around SF and FG
Are you on drugs?
 

hiding behind a poster

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campbeca said:
I still think FF won't lose support any time soon because the alternative is a rainbow which would be a far too unstable to go the 5 years and that is very important

So how do you explain FFs disastrous local and Euro campaigns in 2004, if you think they "wont lose support"? And opinion polls since have kept them more or less flatlining between 32/34%. Thats a big loss of support in anyone's book. And while you think the rainbow may be unstable, again the most recent opinion poll shows the rainbow is trusted over the present government in dealing with health, crime, education and the economy.
 

geraghd

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CJH said:
As DOD has said support will flow from FF to SF, and assuming the PDs are still very small, FG will be the only party to legitimately counter SF. in effect, instead of the old FF-FG rivalry, it will be a SF-FG rivalry, with Labour and FF still being fairly strong but politics centering around SF and FG
Are you on drugs?
What point did you have a problem with? I think its fair to say that FG are pretty much polar opposites to SF where FF would be seen as SF-lite in many ways. Certainly traditionally, and definitely in party support and members. dont you agree?
 

hiding behind a poster

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Red-Devolutionary said:
eh, reality check, please! Labour have a better chance of being the 2nd party in the state in the next 20 years,

Have you any evidence, or any contentions whatsoever to support that claim???



[quote:30bhs2af]or alternatively Sinn Fein have a better chance of being the 3rd biggest party. in the next 10 - depending on labour getting its act and strategy together or not.
Are you referring to SFs chances of overtaking Labour, Fine Gael, or both? Coz even the most rampant Shinners on this site (e.g "factual") aren't saying SF will be the second biggest party in the state in 10 years.


and lovely liz could even end up in labour or greens considering she is one of the most vocal opponents to govt in the last years (a sad reflection on the official opposition)
If the "official opposition" as you call them, are doing so badly, how come all their opinion poll ratings are consistently up and climbing, they had successful local and Euro elections last year, and they continue to expose government incompetence in health, education, transport, etc?




the other issue is the long term reviews they did after the last Gen elections, al reports stated that fine gael may in the short term recover support but in the long term they were in for a long period of terminal decline that would see them fall below not only 20% but if i recall from teh newspapers leaks about them even reachign below 15%.

Thats what the reviews said would happen, if Fine Gael did nothing to change and modernise. They were correctly stating what could happen in stark terms. And Fine Gael are in the process of changing and modernising from top to bottom, and its looking like it'll reap rewards. Even FGs sternest critics admit this.

naturally laboru handing them a crutch for this electino made them relevant again and even somewhat viable - though i dont honestly see a FG/LAb Govt as a real possibility the next election. still i think it still just puts off the ineveitable.
You might be in for a shock there, mate. :wink:

you cannot have 3 conservative parties as teh main players the country - and you certainly cant have 2 opposition parties that are both conservatice catch all parties that base themselves on not being the other party
How do you define "conservative"? What's so "conservative" about Fine Gael, Labour and Fianna Fail that isn't also found in SF, PDs, Greens, etc? "Conservative" is a glib term that people like to throw around, but without any real understanding of it. Do you mean socially conservative, economically conservative, or what???



FG has been wrongly or rightly been tarnished the fat farmerr west brit party(by FF & SF) he fact that theyre allies of the british conservatives,
Now you're just making things up. Firstly I don't think there are over 500,000 fat-farmer west-brit types in the country, but amazingly thats how many votes FG got in the 2004 local elections. Secondly they're not allies of the British Conservatives. So if you don't know what you're talking about, stop talking cr*p.


- th whole no policies just personalities thing has to run out of steam
Go to the Fine Gael website - or just pay attention to the news media - and you'll find out all about Fine Gael's policies.
.
FG would need to look at changing direction again or else going in with FF, and that would of coruse open the whole game up to just why cant they agree how to spell Fine/Fianna and join up
[/quote:30bhs2af]


Been discussed on another thread. Why should we do that? Just to suit Sinn Fein's agenda? No chance, mate - we value our country a bit more than that.
 

CJH

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Feb 24, 2004
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What point did you have a problem with?
Pretty much all of it, but as your prediction rests on the premise that SF will continue to eat into FF's vote, I'll deal with that. I don't see any evidence that SF will make the sustained gains that people are still assuming they will do. All the polls show them stuck around 10% or so for ages. If they can't make serious advances as a left wing party when in sustained opposition with no responsibilities, how do you think their support will hold up if they ever have to make the compromises of power?

As for them taking support off FF more than any other party, I really doubt it. SF are, despite efforts to rebrand themselves, a hardline socialist party. FF is not, and while many of its supporters would be broadly on the left in terms of economic policy, they would be frightened off by any suggestion of anti-capitalism. The main reason I think people suggest that SF will take a large portion of FF's vote is that they are the only two significant parties representing the working classes in Ireland today. But as SF's poll figures aren't moving upwards, and also as the polls suggest that FF's working class base remains pretty solid (problems are in the middle class sections more so), any long term threat to FF is not serious.

To go on, you suggest that the anti-shinners will naturally flock to FG. This is rubbish. Most people aren't motivated by the rabid anti-republicanism and anti-nationalism that exists in much of FG. While they may not like SF, as long as FF don't deal with the shinners they won't see any reason to forsake FF.

Finally, to briefly address DOD's point about talent within FG compared to FF. Firstly, in terms of OFF, that organisation had its best ever college recruitment this year; hardly evidence of a crumbling in support amongst the yoof, is it? I know that the upper echelons of YFG are more visibly active than their Ogra counterparts, and some credit is due for this, but this has been the way for a long time now, and it hasn't made much of a difference to the respective performances before. Indeed, I've always felt that much of the jockish and poncey carry on that all too often characterises YFG does more to put people off than encourage them to join that group.
As for the suggestion that FG has more talented young/backbench TDs than FF; I really think this has no basis in fact at all. Apart from Bruton, and if we're being very generous Hogan, the FG frontbench are nonentities. This I believe will be a serious handicap for them in 2007 when people seriously look at voting for a new government. FF have people like Carey, Brady and Haughey in Dublin alone who (I believe) are head and shoulders above their blueshirt counterparts. FG still carry on as if Brian Hayes is their great white hope; that says it all.

One final thing; although the recent polls have brought cheer to FG, people appear to be unaware that the level they received in the IMS poll (24%) is little better than their dismal 2002 showing, and the 27% in the SBP poll is what they got in 1997, when they didn't come within an asses roar of getting into power. FG have a long long way to go before they can even seriously consider getting into government; to try to suggest that there exist even the smallest reasons for claiming that they are poised to take over from FF as the dominant party in the state is nothing less than laughable
 

BarryW

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262
Red-Devolutionary said:
the other issue is the long term reviews they did after the last Gen elections, al reports stated that fine gael may in the short term recover support but in the long term they were in for a long period of terminal decline that would see them fall below not only 20% but if i recall from teh newspapers leaks about them even reachign below 15%
You're incorrect - or at least, spinning the issue to your own ends.

The FG reports in question said that if no action was taken to change FG's organisation, leadership structure, fundraising etc - then the party would have a short term recovery followed by longterm decline.

However (as you know) massive action has been taken by Enda Kenny to remedy the severe flaws in the FG party. Only time will tell the longterm results of this, but the short-term results have been remarkable and away and above what commentators and members alike could have hoped for.

Red-Devolutionary said:
you cannot have 3 conservative parties as teh main players the country
Says who?? The voters will decide that, my lad

Rockofcashel said:
the FF dog is still lying sleeping. Wait till Bertie and the Boys really flex their muscles. I don't think Enda will know what hit him
ROC, what makes you think this?
You seem to ignore the recent trends in FF strategy in policy terms, and in the way they manage the press.

FF have had all guns blazing against FG and Labour since the Labour conference in April backed the Mullingar Accord (by an overwhelming margin).

Remember the smear campaign against the Rainbow's economic record during the FF meeting in Cavan?
Remember when Cowen and Ahern quoted figures from that Government which were total lies?

Remember their incessant demands through every available media outlet that FG and Labour reveal their fully costed joint programme?? (the same thing which FF refused to supply the voters in 1997 and 2002)

Remember their periodic wheezes that FG lacked the experience to provide an alternative government?

All of these purile efforts were greeted with collective yawns by the media. These tantrums showed that the FF strategists and press office had no coherent strategy, and had no muck of any interest to throw at FG/Labour.

In this Dail term, FF had a three-pronged strategy to get themselves back on track:
1) FF Ard Fheis
2) Transport 21
3) Budget

All three were disasters. Not much came out of the Ard Fheis besides a parade on O' Connell St., and the whole thing was overshadowed by the Liam Lawlor/Sunday Independent fiasco.

Transport 21 was a PR disaster. The media greeted the fabulous plan (which consisted of 3 maps and 4 speeches) with derision. The Opposition was given fodder which lasted for 10 days.

The last week has arguably been the greatest trail of political destruction that FF have seen since 1997. The third prong of their masterplan has been wrecked by Ivor the Engine and his shennanigans on Clare St., Clontarf and elsewhere.

And the recent "leaks" of FF "reports" on Labour/Rabbitte seem to have been greeted with scepticism by media and public alike.

Frankly, ROC - if the last 6 months are any indication of how FF will handle themselves as the election approaches, then FG and Labour won't be sweating all that much
 

BarryW

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deleted
 

BarryW

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CJH said:
Indeed, I've always felt that much of the jockish and poncey carry on that all too often characterises YFG does more to put people off than encourage them to join that group
:eek:
Jockish and poncey?!
Forgive me, but are these two things not the direct opposites of each other? :?

CJH said:
FF have people like Carey, Brady and Haughey in Dublin alone who (I believe) are head and shoulders above their blueshirt counterparts
Yeah right. They have never acheived ministerial office, and could all lose their seats in 2007......... they must be great :roll:



CJH said:
One final thing; although the recent polls have brought cheer to FG, people appear to be unaware that the level they received in the IMS poll (24%) is little better than their dismal 2002 showing
The last IMS poll before the 2002 election had us on 19%. Work out the logic

CJH said:
and the 27% in the SBP poll is what they got in 1997, when they didn't come within an asses roar of getting into power
In 1997, with 27% of the vote, Fine Gael got 54 seats - 22 more than we have now.

So you'll have to forgive us if we don't hurl ourselves off a bridge after a poll rating of 27% !! :lol:
 

Red-Devolutionary

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HIDINGBEHINDAPOSTER
IM NOT SURE ABOUT THE WHOLE QOUTE THING - SO I PASTED THE WHOLE LOT AND WILL REPLY IN CAPS
Quote:

Red-Devolutionary said:
eh, reality check, please! Labour have a better chance of being the 2nd party in the state in the next 20 years,

Have you any evidence, or any contentions whatsoever to support that claim???

YES - SINCE 2004 IN ALL DUBLIN COUNCILS LABOUR IS BIGGEST GROUP, FG IS ONLY 3RD.
IN DAIL IN DUBLIN REGION - LABOUR IS 2ND BIGGEST GROUP, FG IS 6TH BEHIND FF, LAB, GREENS, SF & PD'S.
ALSO 2002 FG WIN 31 SEATS, 1992 LABOUR WIN 33 SEATS (WHEN DEM LEFT WAS SEPERATE PARTY WITH 5-6 SEATS)

Quote:
or alternatively Sinn Fein have a better chance of being the 3rd biggest party. in the next 10 - depending on labour getting its act and strategy together or not.

Are you referring to SFs chances of overtaking Labour, Fine Gael, or both? Coz even the most rampant Shinners on this site (e.g "factual") aren't saying SF will be the second biggest party in the state in 10 years.

SF BEING THE 3RD PARTY ONLY! IF LABORU DONT GET ACT TOGETHER SF COULD OVERTAKE US IN 10 YEAR PERIOD. BACK UP - 2-4% DIFFERENCE IN POLLS BETWEEN US. OUR PLP IS THE OLDEST, SF GETTING LOTS YOUNG CANDIDATES IN PLACE AND PROFILING THEM WITH GOOD RESOURCES. MOST CURRENT LABOUR TD'S PROBABLY WONT RUN IN 2012. IF WE CONTINUE WITH MUDGAURD STRATEGY AFTER NEXT ELECTION WE FACE THIS DISTINCT POSSIBILITY/THREAT.

Quote:
and lovely liz could even end up in labour or greens considering she is one of the most vocal opponents to govt in the last years (a sad reflection on the official opposition)

If the "official opposition" as you call them, are doing so badly, how come all their opinion poll ratings are consistently up and climbing, they had successful local and Euro elections last year, and they continue to expose government incompetence in health, education, transport, etc?


I WOULDNT SAY THEY WERE BIG WINS FOR EITHER MULLNGAR PARTY -
LAB HAD MODESTLY GOOD GAINS, FG HELD WITH SOME SEAT BONUSES BTU PRETTY MUCH SAME PERCENTAGE AS PREVIOUS LOCALS. SF BIG GAINSM INDS BI GAINS.

FF LOST BIG TIME - PEOPLE WEREWAITING IN THE LONG GRASS FOR THE 2002 GE DECEIT ADN CUTBACKS ADN ALSO THE ELECTRONIC VOTING WAS RED HOT AT THE TIME. MOST DAMAGE HAS BEEN SELF INFLICITED. FG- BRUTON AND DURKAN VERY CAPABLE & HEARD, HOGAN HAS A GOOD PROFILE BUT IM NOT A FAN. LAB - RABBITE, MCMANUS, GILMORE & HOWLIN ARE CAPABLE AND BEING HEARD(QUINN VERY SILENT, BUT CLEARLY VERY CAPABLE) AND EH, JOE HIGGINS WHOS NOT IN DANGER OF BEING IN GOVT WITH ANYONE,

LIZ O DONNELL HAS ARGUABLY GOT AS MCUH COVERAGE FOR OPPOSITIONAL TACTICS/SPEECHES INTHE LAST FEW YEARS THAN MOST OPPOSITION BACKBENCHERS, THAT IS NOT GOOD FROM OUR POINT OF VIEW, COWEN GOT A GOOD ONE IN ON WEEK IN POLITICS TONIGHT -(INEPT IN GOVERNMENT, INEPT IN OPPOSITION) I DONT AGREE WE HAD A GOOD RAINBOW IN 94-97 BUT IN OPPOSITION THERE IS A LOT TO BE DESIRED - THE HITS ARE MAINLY THE PRESS AND SELF INFLICTED BY TH GOVT ITSELF. ALTHOGUH IN FAIRNESS RABBITTE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON ATTACK AND STILL OUTPERFORMS KENNY BUT HIS HONEYMOON IS GONE WITH TEH PRESS.

Quote:
the other issue is the long term reviews they did after the last Gen elections, al reports stated that fine gael may in the short term recover support but in the long term they were in for a long period of terminal decline that would see them fall below not only 20% but if i recall from teh newspapers leaks about them even reachign below 15%.

Thats what the reviews said would happen, if Fine Gael did nothing to change and modernise. They were correctly stating what could happen in stark terms. And Fine Gael are in the process of changing and modernising from top to bottom, and its looking like it'll reap rewards. Even FGs sternest critics admit this.

YES, THEY HAVE IMPROVED FROM A RECORD LOW, THEY HAVE YET TO GET BACK TO 1997 LEVELS WHICH, THE 3 PARTY RAINBOW LOST, IF YOU REMEMBER. AND BESIDES I SAID THAT THE REPORTS SAID A SHORT TERM GAIN, BUT IN LONG TERM DELCINE, NO MAJOR RADICAL OVERHAUL OF ORGANISATION OR MESSAGE OR NAME OR DIRECTION - OK YOU AHVE PURGED THE SOCIAL DEMOCRATS FROM POWER INTERNALLY - BUT CONSIDERING THAT YOU HOPE TO HAVE A COALTION WITH LABOUR AND ALSO THAT THE TRADE UNIONS ARE FINALLY FLEXING THEIR MUSCLES - I DONT THINK THAT IS NECESSARILY A GOOD THING IF YOU ENTERTAIN STABLE COALITION WITH US, ITS LIKELY THAT IF YOU PUSH US ON CORE POLICY AND ALSO THE PD'S YOU'LL END UP WITH US TELLING YOU WHERE TO GO, AND THERES ONLY ONE WAY INTO GOVERNMENT THEN, WHICH YOU CLAIM YOU WONT DO, SO WE''LL SEE HOW THAT WORKS FOR YOU LONG TERM.

Quote:
naturally laboru handing them a crutch for this electino made them relevant again and even somewhat viable - though i dont honestly see a FG/LAb Govt as a real possibility the next election. still i think it still just puts off the ineveitable.

You might be in for a shock there, mate.

YES YOU'RE RIGHT, IT WOULD BE A SHOCK, EVEN WITH THE GREENS FG/LAB WOULD NEED THE BIGGEST SEAT SWING IN FREE STATE ELECTORAL HISTORY, AND KENNY IS NOT THE MAN TO DO THAT. HOWEVER, FF COULD COMMIT SUICIDE - (EG: BERTIE EXPOSED IN MASSIVE CORRUPTION SEVERAL WEEKS BEFORE ELECTION OR OTHER SEISMIC EVENTS) SO POSSIBLE YES, LIKELY, NOT AT ALL

Quote:
you cannot have 3 conservative parties as teh main players the country - and you certainly cant have 2 opposition parties that are both conservatice catch all parties that base themselves on not being the other party

How do you define "conservative"? What's so "conservative" about Fine Gael, Labour and Fianna Fail that isn't also found in SF, PDs, Greens, etc? "Conservative" is a glib term that people like to throw around, but without any real understanding of it. Do you mean socially conservative, economically conservative, or what???

EH? LABOUR? CONSERVATIVE (MAYBE COMPARED TO SOME EUROPPEAN SOCIALISTS) - I WAS REFERRING TO FF, FG & PD
AND TEHY ARE ALL ECONOMICALLY AND SOCIALLY CONSERVATIVE.
TEH PD'S SOCIAL LIBERAL CREDENTIALS WERE EXPOSED AS HORSESH*T THE LAST FEW YEARS, eg.FOI, JUSTICE, IMMIGRATION, ABORTION. AND AS FOR THE OTHER 2 WELL WITH THEIR COLLUISION WITH TEH CATHOLICA CHURCH WE HAD ABOUT 50 YEARS OF THE CHRISTIAN VERSION OF IRAN. NICE ONE BOYS, AND NOW LETS LEAVE THEM OFF AND CHARGE TEH TAXPAYER FOR THE ENDEMIC ABUSE AND SYSTEMATIC COVER UPS. :evil:

Quote:
FG has been wrongly or rightly been tarnished the fat farmerr west brit party(by FF & SF) he fact that theyre allies of the british conservatives,

Now you're just making things up. Firstly I don't think there are over 500,000 fat-farmer west-brit types in the country, but amazingly thats how many votes FG got in the 2004 local elections. Secondly they're not allies of the British Conservatives. So if you don't know what you're talking about, stop talking cr*p.

OF COURSE MORE PEOPLE VOTE FOR THEM, BUT ARE YOU DENYING THAT IN MAYBE A GLIB STEREOTYUPE WAY THAT FG CORE VOTE IS (OR WAS) ASSOCIATED WITH BIG FARMER.SMALL BUSINESS/SHOPKEEPER AND FF CORE VOTE SMALL FARMER NATIONALIST WORKING CLASS. NATURALLY IT BECAME MORE SOPHISTICATED ETC, FOR INSTANCE I BELIEVE PROPERTY DEVELOPERS/CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY/MEAT PROCESSORS BECAME VERY ENAMOURED OF FF IN THE LAST 20 YEARS- WHICH HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH ALL THE KICKBACKS/ TAX RELIEFS/SUBSIDIES AND BUDGET OVERRUNS IM SURE.
ANYHOW, THERE ARE GROUPS ASSOCIATED WITH CERTAIN PARTIES,

MEANWHILE YOU GOT THE FAT FARMERS WHO WANT MORE TAXPAYER SUBSIDIES FOR DRIVING SMALL IRISH FARMERS OFF THE LAND AND STARVE THE 3RD WORLD INTO FAMINE!!
SYMPATHY FOR THE DEVIL :twisted:

SECONDLY, YOU DONT KNOW WHAT YOURE TALKING ABOUT!!! :roll:
FINE GAEL IS A MEMBER OF EPP/ED EUROPEAN PEOPLES PARTY/EUROPEAN DEMOCRATS, GROUPING WITHIN THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT - ALSO A MEMBER OF THE GROUP IS THE BRITISH CONSERVATIVE PARTY....FACT. I'M SURE YOU'RE VERY PROUD TO ALSO LEARN THAT THE MASSIVELY CORRUPT, INEPT AND ULTRA RIGHT WING SILVIO BERLUSCONI'S FORZA ITALIA PARTY LEFT THE UEN GROUPING AND JOINED THE EPP/ED - WHAT LOVELY BEDFELLOWS YOU KEEP, WELL DONE, IM GLAD TO SEE THAT FAMOUS BLUESHIRT INTEGRITY AND HONESTY YOU CLAIM TO HAVE IN IRELAND WAS SHOWN SO STRONGLY WHEN THEIR MEMBERSHIPS WERE APPLIED FOR, IM SURE YOU ONLY RELUCTANTLY GAVE THEM A STANDIGN OVATION ON JOINING WHILST RUSHING OUT TO CLAIM YOU NOW BELONG TO THE LARGEST EP GROUPING (NOT THROUGH ELECTIONS BUT THROUGH LETTING ANY GANGSTER JOIN THE GROUP TO BOOST NUMBERS) - BRAVO :oops:

Quote:
- th whole no policies just personalities thing has to run out of steam

Go to the Fine Gael website - or just pay attention to the news media - and you'll find out all about Fine Gael's policies.

OK, FAIR ENOUGH, BUT ITS ABOUT TIME WE HAD POLICY DEBATES.
REALITY IS MOST OF IRISH ELECTIONS WERE BASED ON LOCALISM, TRIBALISM AND PERSONALITY. IF POLICY HAD DOMINATED TEH DEBATE FOR THE LAST 50 YEARS IM PRETTY SURE WE WOULD HAVE HAD MORE DIVERSITY, DEVELOPMENT AND REDISTRIBUTION , BUT THEN AGAIN MAYBE IRELND IS JUST FULL OF TORIES. THEY CERTAINLY VOTE THAT WAY WHEN HERE.

Quote:
FG would need to look at changing direction again or else going in with FF, and that would of coruse open the whole game up to just why cant they agree how to spell Fine/Fianna and join up

Been discussed on another thread. Why should we do that? Just to suit Sinn Fein's agenda? No chance, mate - we value our country a bit more than that.
HOW DOES THE BIGGEST MAJOIRTY GOVERNMENT WITH A COMPLETELY COMPATIBLE COALITION SUIT SINN FEINS AGENDA? YOU MEAN STABLE GOVERNMENT WOULD SUIT SINN FEIN? AS OPPOSED TO SINN FEIN HOLDING BALANCE OF POWER OVER A MINORITY GOVT OR ACTUALLY IN GOVERNMENT.
HA! SO MUCH FOR THE NATIONAL INTEREST!
I GUESS FG LIKE TO SOUND RESPONSIBLE BUT REALLY THEY WOULD PREFER TO FEEL SMUGLY SUPERIOR ON SOME ILLUSIONARY MORAL HIGH GROUND TO GET ONE OVER ON FF RATHER THAN DO WHAT IS RIGHT FOR THE COUNTRY.

CMON, ISNT IS TIME THAT YOU AND FF FINALY RESOLVED THE MAIN FACTOR THAT HAS DIVIDED YOU AND THE COUNTRY FOR THE LAST 80 YEARS, CANT WE SOLVE THE IRISH QUESTION THAT HAS VEXED GENERATIONS?
HOW DO YOU SPELL FIANNA/FINE?
ONCE THATS SORTED WHAT ACTUALLY EXISTS AS A DIFFERENCE-
YOU CAN HAVE BLUE AND GREEN WINGS OF THE PARTY, IF THAT IS AN ISSUE, BUT I DONT SEE ANY POLICY ISSUES REALLY, DOES ANYONE?
 

BarryW

Active member
Joined
Sep 8, 2003
Messages
262
Jesus Christ! Learn to use the Quote thing properly, for God's sake. That post is unreadable
 

Red-Devolutionary

New member
Joined
Feb 11, 2005
Messages
4
Website
www.politicalcompass.org
HI BARRYW
CAPS AGAIN, SORRY NOT SURE OF THE WHOLE QOUTE THING- SEEMS EASIER THIS WAY

Red-Devolutionary wrote:
the other issue is the long term reviews they did after the last Gen elections, al reports stated that fine gael may in the short term recover support but in the long term they were in for a long period of terminal decline that would see them fall below not only 20% but if i recall from teh newspapers leaks about them even reachign below 15%

You're incorrect - or at least, spinning the issue to your own ends.

NO, AS FAR AS I REMEMBER (IT IS AWHILE AGO NOW SO NOT TOTALLY SURE) BUT I THINK IT STATED THAT THEY COUDL LOOK AS LOW AS 17% IN TWO ELECTIONS TIME AND THER EWAS NO BOTTOM LIMIT WITH POSSIBILITIES TO GOING TO SOMETHING LIKE 12% (BUT MAYBE THAT IS JUST WISHFULTHINKING ON MY SIDE) IT IS A WHILE AND I DEFER OF COURSE TO INTERNAL FG HACKS WHO ACTUALLY SAW THE REPORT AND ACTED ON IT, OF COURSE I AGREE UNLESS ACTION WAS TAKING - BUT SERIOUS OVERHAUL NOT LOTS OF COSMETIC - TIS NOT JUST A PARTY LEADER YOU NEED- ITS A PARTY BRAND/THEM/POLICY ADN YOU EITHER GOT OT BE COMPATIBLE WITH LABOUR OR GO RIGHT WING IN WHICH CASE YOU GO IN WITH FF COS I CERTAINLY WONT VOTE FOR A RIGHT WING FG, A FITTZGERALD STYLE FG MAYBE ID DO BUSINESS WITH.

The FG reports in question said that if no action was taken to change FG's organisation, leadership structure, fundraising etc - then the party would have a short term recovery followed by longterm decline.

However (as you know) massive action has been taken by Enda Kenny to remedy the severe flaws in the FG party. Only time will tell the longterm results of this, but the short-term results have been remarkable and away and above what commentators and members alike could have hoped for.

I DONT KNOW, I KNOW FF ARE DEEPLY UNPOPULAR,

Red-Devolutionary wrote:
you cannot have 3 conservative parties as teh main players the country

Says who?? The voters will decide that, my lad

YEAH FAIR ENOUGH, I JUST DONT BELEIVE THAT THE IRISH PEOPLE WOULD VOTE FOR THE HATED TORY PARTY AND NOT LABOUR IN THE SAME NUMBERS AS THEY CLEARLY VOTE FOR TORY PARTIES HERE.
IF YOU STRIPPED THE LOCALISM/TRIBALISM OF IRISH POLITICS AND FACED THEM WITH POLICY ALONE - IM HOPING THAT WILL BE THE CASE ONCE THE GAME OF FALSE CHARADES IS THROUGH WITH THE GOOD OP/BAD COP ROUTINE BY FIANNA/FINE.

quote][/quote]

THANKS FOR THE DEBATE, IM SURE IT WILL GO ON, BUT I THINK WE CAN AGREE FG ARE NOT GOING TO OUTSTRIP FF (ALTHOUGH YOU DID IT IN THE EUROS AND ARE LEVEL IN TEH LOCALS (IS THAT JSUT CO.COUNCILS OR IS IT TOWNS AS WELL?- IM GUESSING IT IS COUNTIES ONLY (ALTHOUGHT THATS THE MAIN POWER BASE FOR SENATE ELECTIONS) LATER
 

NGTR

Member
Joined
Oct 29, 2004
Messages
28
Website
www.freewebs.com
Hi Red-Devolutionary,

I'm not goign to copy and paste your argument as the Capitals aren't easy to read but I'd just like to refer to a number of points you made. Firstly Fine Gael have a working relationship in the European Parliament with the British Conservatives we are not members of the same party, however we are both part of the EPP-ED group. Fine Gael is not a Conservative party hence we are not allies with the Tories and do not participate in global Conservative movements like the IDU. Secondly yes Forza Italia are part of the EPP as are about 2 other Italian parties. Its not like we're allied to a bunch of Communists or Fascists! Sure they have a less then impressive domestic record but you speak of them as if they were the worst party in the world

Secondly you only cite the results of the Dublin Councils an area where Fine Gael has been consistently weak since the 1980s. You also fail to state how Fine Gael actually made gains there in terms of seat numbers and percentage of the vote gained. The evidence you provide for Labour over taking Fine Gael is cited out of context and presented falsely.

Also the references you make to the typical Fine Gael voter is out of date, these were the core voters of the 1950s, such a generalisation in today's world is nearing redundancy, sure there is a sharp differenciation between your typical urban/rural Fine Gael voter but alot of these labels became redundant in the late 1970s.
 

eurocrat

Active member
Joined
Dec 23, 2004
Messages
231
geraghd said:
Well whilst Id like to think FG will outstrip FF completely and become the new FF as it were in terms of dominance, FF will be around for a long time yet. But what I think will happen, is a certain steady increase in SF support over the next couple of decades. As DOD has said support will flow from FF to SF, and assuming the PDs are still very small, FG will be the only party to legitimately counter SF. in effect, instead of the old FF-FG rivalry, it will be a SF-FG rivalry, with Labour and FF still being fairly strong but politics centering around SF and FG. So to add to the original post: The future is most certainly Blue and Green!
Sorry, I think that a bit nuts. Unless SF considerable reform their socialist economic policse they will never reach FF levels.

There is no appitite in Ireland for socialism. There is, however, for a nationalist party with centrist economic policys. Thats all FF are. FG could be the same if i purged a few of it West-Brits from the ranks.

The structure of Irish polictial party strenght has remained virtually unchaged for 70 years. Despite the rise of the PDs, the avent of the Green Party, Labour '92 breakthrough and today rise in suport for SF.
 


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