Is Western Europe & the US sleepwalking into a massive Civil War ?

Spirit Of Newgrange

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The revolution will not be televised.

History can bumble along slowly, sleepily and then explode into Strife from time to time. Such were the sentiments of historian Simon Schama.
Trends
Brexit, Trump, Corsica, Marine Le Pen. Voters are angry.

Juncker, Merkel, Blair...the centralists are digging in for a siege.

Another mass shooting in the US. The frequency and incidence of these is getting very worrying.

Islamic Terrorism. When and where will the next attack happen ? They haven' t gone away you know ?

The mean streets in our cities getting meaner. Social unrest and divided societies. White Flight away from certain postcodes. No go areas. Gang violence and lawlessness. The Malmo effect.

Policymakers reluctant to enforce the existing Laws and/or paying respect to Sharia Law and other parallel legal arrangements. The Rochdale/Rotherham effect.

Long term unemployment of many native residents and immigrants. All leading to feelings of resentment and powerlessness. The Trump effect.

The Likely Belligerents :

The Old Corner : Conservatives, 'christians', the ethnic majority, Brexiteer/Trump voter types, The Elderley, Fox News, Football Fans. Secular Republicans,

The New Corner : Left wingers, Ethnic & Religious minorities (or call them Newcomers if now forming a majority in towns like Luton ) , Multiculturalist Celebrity types, the BBC, Refugees, those rioters who have already trashed London and much of France, Marxists.

Divided loyalties and confused types, some on both sides of a conflict : Intellectuals, LGBT'S, Atheists, Organised Crime, Environmentalists.


Interested Obervers, influencers and stokers of the fires : Saudi Leaders, Vlad Putin, Bankers, White (and other) supremacists, religious leaders, Corporations, investors,

Possible sparks to begin the madness :
- another financial crisis
- an oil crisis
- climate change or an environmental collapse anywhere on the Planet
- another terrorist atrocity
- a divisive election result
- belligerent political leaders playing brinkmanship.


The likely outcome :

The disintegration of the EU into mini States. The rise of characters like Franco, Stalin, Napoleon, DeValera again. Violent autocrats claiming to be acting in the best interests of everybody else.

- Balkanisation.

- A new paranoia. Borders. Mass State intelligence gathering. Customs controls. A Police State near you.

- Ulster style 'peace walls', gated communities and no-go areas across much of Europe/US.


The Winners : Nobody, arms manufacturers, funeral undertakers,

The Losers : the financial system, the welfare State, the EU, freedom of speech, homeowners ( remember the property market in Bosnia ? )

Previous Wars that everybody saw coming ages before they started : The Spanish Civil war, WW1, Yugoslavia.

Wars that surprised everybody : WW2 ( certainly surprised Uncle joe Stalin who ignored all his intelligence gathering), Vietnam, the French Revolution, the Irish Civil war.

All of this raises a number of questions :
- is this Civil War likely or is it just paranoia ?
- what role has any State military whose function appears to be to threaten/fight the military of another State ?
- Can all of this be averted ?
- Are Trump/Brexit/Putin etc all fanning the flames of a gigantic conflagration ?
- Are lefties who crowd-bomb legitimate political discussion all contributing to a general malaise ?
- Has political correctness created a simmering pressure-cooker or resentment which is ready to explode soon ?
- Franz Ferdinand's assassination was the spark which ignited WW1, the Police shooting of Mark Duggan exploded the London Riots, what spark could ignite the big one in our lifetime ?
- is this inevitable in the long term ?
- does anybody take this threat seriously or is it all being laughed off as the rantings of madmen ?
- does anybody realise just how terrifying a civil war is ? To be avoided at all costs.
- is this just paranoia or is the threat very real ?


Is the West sleepwalking into a massive Civil War ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_war
.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yugoslav_Wars
.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars
.
 
Last edited:


Gwannow

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I can't see a civil war happening in Western Europe or the U.S.
Civil wars are usually the purview of emerging nationhood - the U.S. had theirs already, and most of Europe's countries, in history, also experienced civil conflicts, including ourselves. There will be difficult times ahead, but civil war? I doubt it.
 

Spirit Of Newgrange

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I can't see a civil war happening in Western Europe or the U.S.
Civil wars are usually the purview of emerging nationhood - the U.S. had theirs already, and most of Europe's countries, in history, also experienced civil conflicts, including ourselves.
Spain ? the Spanish civil war was the same nation with the same borders before and after the war. Ditto the French Revolution.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
The old left-right divide died when the Berlin Wall came down. Since then it has been a misreading of the corporate state versus the individual citizen.

It amuses me sometimes when I see Irish commentators yearning for a 'proper' left-versus-right debate in Ireland. They are only a generation out of time. Not unusually.

Unless there is an Irish industrial Ruhr with factory gates and shipyards hidden away that no-one has told me about.

Mind you there is a growing awareness. I haven't heard any sociologists earnestly discussing the progress of the 'proletariat' or the 'bourgeoisie' in quite some time.

The corporatists are still stuck using the language they borrowed from Marx, Engels, Lenin and co though.
 

Gin Soaked

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The divide in Ireland is between a) the over 40's who have decent jobs and a house , b) the educated and employed 20 and 30 somethings who can't get houses near employment so house share or live in otherwise sub standard housing and c) the unemployed and underemployed and the working poor who have no potential of getting into group "a"..

We used to have a housing and life solution for the real working class. And young middle class could rub shoulders there till they traded up. So hence housing being a massive political issue. Group b are torn between the charlatans of the left and the seeming indifference of FG and FF. SF try to straddle "b" and "c".

In the US, "c" seek salvation in a Right wing sociopathic party who openly treat them with contempt.

Whenever you see racism and nationalism as solutions to economic and social stagnation, you are in trouble. The blame is just being deflected from.the root cause.
 

APettigrew92

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Aug 4, 2011
Messages
2,700
The revolution will not be televised.

History can bumble along slowly, sleepily and then explode into Strife from time to time. Such were the sentiments of historian Simon Schama.

Brexit, Trump, Corsica, Marine Le Pen. Voters are angry.

Juncker, Merkel, Blair...the centralists are digging in for a siege.

Another mass shooting in the US. The frequency and incidence of these is getting very worrying.

Islamic Terrorism. When and where will the next attack happen ? They haven' t gone away you know ?

The Likely Belligerents :

The Old Corner : Conservatives, 'christians', the ethnic majority, Brexiteer/Trump voter types, The Elderley, Fox News, Football Fans. Secular Republicans,

The New Corner : Left wingers, Ethnic & Religious minorities (or call them Newcomers if now forming a majority in towns like Luton ) , Multiculturalist Celebrity types, the BBC, Refugees, those rioters who have already trashed London and much of France, Marxists.

Divided loyalties and confused types, some on both sides of a conflict : Intellectuals, LGBT'S, Atheists, Organised Crime, Environmentalists.


Interested Obervers, influencers and stokers of the fires : Saudi Leaders, Vlad Putin, Bankers, White (and other) supremacists, religious leaders.

Possible sparks to begin the madness :
- another financial crisis
- an oil crisis
- climate change or an environmental collapse anywhere on the Planet
- another terrorist atrocity
- a divisive election result
- belligerent political leaders playing brinkmanship.


The likely outcome :

The disintegration of the EU into mini States. The rise of characters like Franco, Stalin, Napoleon, DeValera again. Violent autocrats claiming to be acting in the best interests of everybody else.
DeValera a violent autocrat?

- Balkanisation.

- A new paranoia. Borders. Mass State intelligence gathering. Customs controls. A Police State near you.

- Ulster style 'peace walls', gated communities and no-go areas across much of Europe/US.


The Winners : Nobody.

Previous Wars that everybody saw coming ages before they started : The Spanish Civil war, WW1, Yugoslavia.

Wars that surprised everybody : WW2 ( certainly surprised Uncle joe Stalin who ignored all his intelligence gathering), Vietnam, the French Revolution, the Irish Civil war.
Uncle Joe was well aware that the Germans were going to attack. He was convinced it would have been in 1942 at the earliest. Or, at least, he hoped. The warnings he denied were mainly from the UK, led by "strangle communism in the cradle" Churchill, and a number of his own spies (Sorge in Tokyo) who kept mixing the dates up. I don't think the Irish Civil War suprised anyone, either. They did vote on the Treaty, remember?

All of this raises a number of questions :
- is this Civil War likely or is it just paranoia ?
- what role has any State military whose function appears to be to threaten/fight the military of another State ?
- Can all of this be averted ?
- Are Trump/Brexit/Putin etc all fanning the flames of a gigantic conflagration ?
- Are lefties who crowd-bomb legitimate political discussion all contributing to a general malaise ?
- Has political correctness created a simmering pressure-cooker or resentment which is ready to explode soon ?
- Franz Ferdinand's assassination was the spark which ignited WW1, the Police shooting of Mark Duggan exploded the London Riots, what spark could ignite the big one in our lifetime ?
Franz Ferdinand's murder came against the backdrop of anti-Austro-Hungarian sentiment on the half of Serbia since her inception as a Nation. On the walls above the Prime Minister's office in Belgrade, there was even a map with the "territories to be reclaimed - Vovojdina, Dalmatia, Bosnia, Croatia, Slovenia and Montenegro" well before the firestorm of WW1. That was a really complicated set of circumstances, not helped by the Russian guarantee to Serbia which had been manufactured by a few diplomats. Once Russia began mobilizing, apparently as a threat, then the powder keg was truly lit. The Germans had to mobilize and that forced them to attack the French and the rest is history. Really a case of Serbian irredentism (the Black Hand was in league with the Serbian Government) and bizarre Russian foreign policy.


.
To answer your question, the most radical elements of modern society would appear to be the Left. The right exists, in small, openly ridiculed pockets, but mainstream media both here and across the water tolerate and tacitly approve radical left-wing rhetoric.

You only need look at the time afforded to Antifa, a group which prevents supposed hate speech by violently attacking people in the streets. Look at David Harbour's speech at the Grammy's. Apparently, it is perfectly justified to punch people in the face if you disagree with them. The political spectrum is becoming ever more polarized and a failure to adequately restore calm to the matter will only result in more violence.
 

Congalltee

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The OP reminds me of the advice Chris Mullen gave an overly concerned constitutent: “Change your “news” sources.”
 

Lúidín

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7,253
The economic basis of society is still the same as it was when Marx analysed it. There are those who own the capital and those who work for it. This divide is reflected in every social issue - housing, health, employment. Eventually it will become so top-heavy, with the owners of wealth getting fewer and richer, as we can see is happening, that the ediface will fall and the 'expropriators are expropriated'.

How we organise ourselves during and after that are matters for conjecture. With the free availability of military weapons in the USA, it will most likely be a lot different to stately Europe.
 

Clanrickard

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Joined
Apr 25, 2008
Messages
33,160
The revolution will not be televised.

History can bumble along slowly, sleepily and then explode into Strife from time to time. Such were the sentiments of historian Simon Schama.

Brexit, Trump, Corsica, Marine Le Pen. Voters are angry.

Juncker, Merkel, Blair...the centralists are digging in for a siege.

Another mass shooting in the US. The frequency and incidence of these is getting very worrying.

Islamic Terrorism. When and where will the next attack happen ? They haven' t gone away you know ?

The Likely Belligerents :

The Old Corner : Conservatives, 'christians', the ethnic majority, Brexiteer/Trump voter types, The Elderley, Fox News, Football Fans. Secular Republicans,

The New Corner : Left wingers, Ethnic & Religious minorities (or call them Newcomers if now forming a majority in towns like Luton ) , Multiculturalist Celebrity types, the BBC, Refugees, those rioters who have already trashed London and much of France, Marxists.

Divided loyalties and confused types, some on both sides of a conflict : Intellectuals, LGBT'S, Atheists, Organised Crime, Environmentalists.


Interested Obervers, influencers and stokers of the fires : Saudi Leaders, Vlad Putin, Bankers, White (and other) supremacists, religious leaders, Corporations, investors,

Possible sparks to begin the madness :
- another financial crisis
- an oil crisis
- climate change or an environmental collapse anywhere on the Planet
- another terrorist atrocity
- a divisive election result
- belligerent political leaders playing brinkmanship.


The likely outcome :

The disintegration of the EU into mini States. The rise of characters like Franco, Stalin, Napoleon, DeValera again. Violent autocrats claiming to be acting in the best interests of everybody else.

- Balkanisation.

- A new paranoia. Borders. Mass State intelligence gathering. Customs controls. A Police State near you.

- Ulster style 'peace walls', gated communities and no-go areas across much of Europe/US.


The Winners : Nobody, arms manufacturers, funeral undertakers,

The Losers : the financial system, the welfare State, the EU, freedom of speech, homeowners ( remember the property market in Bosnia ? )

Previous Wars that everybody saw coming ages before they started : The Spanish Civil war, WW1, Yugoslavia.

Wars that surprised everybody : WW2 ( certainly surprised Uncle joe Stalin who ignored all his intelligence gathering), Vietnam, the French Revolution, the Irish Civil war.

All of this raises a number of questions :
- is this Civil War likely or is it just paranoia ?
- what role has any State military whose function appears to be to threaten/fight the military of another State ?
- Can all of this be averted ?
- Are Trump/Brexit/Putin etc all fanning the flames of a gigantic conflagration ?
- Are lefties who crowd-bomb legitimate political discussion all contributing to a general malaise ?
- Has political correctness created a simmering pressure-cooker or resentment which is ready to explode soon ?
- Franz Ferdinand's assassination was the spark which ignited WW1, the Police shooting of Mark Duggan exploded the London Riots, what spark could ignite the big one in our lifetime ?
- is this inevitable or could it all be averted ?
- does anybody take this threat seriously or is it all being laughed off as the rantings of madmen ?
- does anybody realise just how terrifying a civil war is ? To be avoided at all costs.
- is this just paranoia or is the threat very real ?


Is the West sleepwalking into a massive Civil War ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_war
.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yugoslav_Wars
.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars
.
 

The Field Marshal

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[video]https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/b5c3ba34-61e0-4096-9b09-2507205daeaf[/video]
 

Nedz Newt

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How in the name of even the Blueshirt Jazus does De Valera make it on to a list with Franco, Stalin and Napoleon?!
 

The Field Marshal

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How in the name of even the Blueshirt Jazus does De Valera make it on to a list with Franco, Stalin and Napoleon?!
DeValera and Franco were both Spanish.
DeValera and Stalin were both involved in a civil war.
DeValera and Napoleon were both in the army.

So you see these extraordinary links are both deep and important.

Does this answer your question.?
 

Analyzer

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The divide in Ireland is between a) the over 40's who have decent jobs and a house , b) the educated and employed 20 and 30 somethings who can't get houses near employment so house share or live in otherwise sub standard housing and c) the unemployed and underemployed and the working poor who have no potential of getting into group "a"..
That assessment is a gross oversimplification. What followed was so bad I had to leave it out.

Also rather nonsensical. Many of the over 35s are stuck in massive mortgage repayments. They are stuck with rearing kids and looking after aging parents against a backdrop of declining standards in both the education and health systems - while they are being rode by taxes to pay for such mediocrity.

Many in their 20s are stuck with useless degrees that often ends in the word "studies". Or have good degress but have to compete with better educated people from other countries. And many of them are also entertaining lifestyle illusions from the 1990s that are no longer sustainable in the current workplace - but which are pumped into them by the Irish third level experience and the Irish media.

Into this we have a range of political options who all promote themselves as the providers of free stuff.

The media are also promoting this illusion because it underpins consumer spending. This worked until 2009. But it no longer does. High taxation, real estate bottlenecking, excessive statism, and more borrowing are building a rather dangerous financial mess.

What terrifies me is the pervasive effort to avoid an honest discussion.

This country is becomming like the Truman Show.
 

Analyzer

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By the way, the next country that I think will have a civil war will be Turkey.

And indeed on one side is a centralising political force. A force that demands massive regulation of life and society. A political movement that deems itself to be the source of morality, & thereby entitled to control the populace. This force controls the media. It has declared that it is on a mission to declare what is right and what is wrong. It is deeply contemptuous of free thought. It has imprisoned those who dissent. And it regularly hides the truth from it's own populace. It's leader even got rescued from his darkest moment by CNN.

It has also borrowed and binged like crazy in the financial perspective.

Turkey will hit a financial crisis. Perhaps the political leadership might blame the Russians, the Greeks or ex-Muslims.

And this will accelerate a movement towards civil war.

Erdogan's eagerness to get involved in the civil wars of neighbouring countries does not help matters.
 

Nedz Newt

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DeValera and Franco were both Spanish.
DeValera and Stalin were both involved in a civil war.
DeValera and Napoleon were both in the army.

So you see these extraordinary links are both deep and important.

Does this answer your question.?
Totally clears it up, yes.
 

Spirit Of Newgrange

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By the way, the next country that I think will have a civil war will be Turkey.

And indeed on one side is a centralising political force. A force that demands massive regulation of life and society. A political movement that deems itself to be the source of morality, & thereby entitled to control the populace. This force controls the media. It has declared that it is on a mission to declare what is right and what is wrong. It is deeply contemptuous of free thought. It has imprisoned those who dissent. And it regularly hides the truth from it's own populace. It's leader even got rescued from his darkest moment by CNN.

It has also borrowed and binged like crazy in the financial perspective.

Turkey will hit a financial crisis. Perhaps the political leadership might blame the Russians, the Greeks or ex-Muslims.

And this will accelerate a movement towards civil war.

Erdogan's eagerness to get involved in the civil wars of neighbouring countries does not help matters.
and of course the Kurds. Wow what a powder keg the Turks must find it to have a disconnected ethnic minority who are poorer, disenfranchised, linguistically disconnected and have little loyalty to the centre. Nothing like that in Ireland.
 

Spirit Of Newgrange

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DeValera and Franco were both Spanish.
DeValera and Stalin were both involved in a civil war.
DeValera and Napoleon were both in the army.

So you see these extraordinary links are both deep and important.

Does this answer your question.?
Stalin's big hero of the revolution was Trotski - who outshone Stalin. Then Stalin got him whacked.

De Valera would never do such a thing - with an ice-pick.
 

The Field Marshal

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and of course the Kurds. Wow what a powder keg the Turks must find it to have a disconnected ethnic minority who are poorer, disenfranchised, linguistically disconnected and have little loyalty to the centre. Nothing like that in Ireland.
DeValera had a long neck like a Turkey so this generates a link with the country of that name.
 


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