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Israeli exit polls: left and right almost evenly-split


FloatingVoterTralee

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Netanyahu's electoral strategy of a Likud-Yisrael Beitenu joint list appears to have backfired, their combined predicted tally of 31 seats down almost 10 on the 2009 election. Labour have stagnated, only rising from 13 to 17, but the new centrist Yesh Atid party, which has focused predominantly on social issues has risen from nowhere to come second with 18 deputies. With Jewish Home's tally of 12, it's predicted the right will ultimately win 61 seats, compared with the centre and right's 59. Netanyahu looks like retaining his status as PM, but it's hardly the overwhelming mandate that was widely expected.
 

Keith-M

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The closeness will mean that Netanyahu will have to court Jewish Home or go try and convince one of the Leftist parties.
 

Ryan Tubbs

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If Yesh Latid have done so well, and Jewish Home (predicted to get around 17) have done worse than expected, then it's probably a good thing as it will force Netenyahu to seek allies in the centre rather than form a hard-right Government of Likud-Beitenyu/Jewish Home/Shas.

I'm strongly pro-Israel, but it isn't good for the state to have a hard right government in place. The broad-based governments led by Kadima (Sharon and Olmert) proved this, as the international standing of Israel rose a lot during their time in office. Netenyahu's recent term hasn't been great.

Still, the entire election is a bit of a slap in the face for Netenyahu and the Likud-Beitenyu experiment. In the end it seems that economic concerns were more in the minds of voters than security/peace concerns.
 

Keith-M

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If Yesh Latid have done so well, and Jewish Home (predicted to get around 17) have done worse than expected, then it's probably a good thing as it will force Netenyahu to seek allies in the centre rather than form a hard-right Government of Likud-Beitenyu/Jewish Home/Shas.

I'm strongly pro-Israel, but it isn't good for the state to have a hard right government in place. The broad-based governments led by Kadima (Sharon and Olmert) proved this, as the international standing of Israel rose a lot during their time in office. Netenyahu's recent term hasn't been great.
Jewish Home were only predicted to get 12-14 seats. Shas role as kingmakers has now passed to Bennett and Jewish Home.

Still, the entire election is a bit of a slap in the face for Netenyahu and the Likud-Beitenyu experiment. In the end it seems that economic concerns were more in the minds of voters than security/peace concerns.
Yes, nice to see Israelis putting internal issues first rather than worry about foreign perceptions.
 

devnull

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The closeness will mean that Netanyahu will have to court Jewish Home or go try and convince one of the Leftist parties.
Adding a leftist party would probably have been his preference anyway.
He seems to prefer to be in coalition with parties to both sides of Likud counter-balancing eachother.
 

flavirostris

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Netanyahu will probably form a coalition with Bennett's crypto fascists, driving Israel even further to the right. Bennett believes Area C of the West Bank should be annexed and is completely opposed to a Palestinian state.
 

Telemachus

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Do any one of these parties want to rebuild the temple? I read even "liberal" jews in Israel are quite hardcore on the national matter.
 

Ryan Tubbs

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The Israeli system of PR seat allocation really is insane. In 2009 it resulted in a system where 21 of 120 seats (Over 20% of the whole parliament) were awarded to parties who got less than 4% support each.

This is designed to protect minority views, but only leads to crazy instability. And the "larger" parties will never club together to change it, because the history of Israel has been one of parties coming and going at a rate of knots. Eg. Kadima seem to have been reduced to 2 seats today.
 

Keith-M

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The Israeli system of PR seat allocation really is insane. In 2009 it resulted in a system where 21 of 120 seats (Over 20% of the whole parliament) were awarded to parties who got less than 4% support each.

This is designed to protect minority views, but only leads to crazy instability. And the "larger" parties will never club together to change it, because the history of Israel has been one of parties coming and going at a rate of knots. Eg. Kadima seem to have been reduced to 2 seats today.
I've been having this debate with an Israeli journalist. She maintain it's good for representing minority views in the Knesset but I think a 5% threshold would force all those parties to unite with people they shared a lot with and it would make formation of a government far easier.
 

Ryan Tubbs

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I've been having this debate with an Israeli journalist. She maintain it's good for representing minority views in the Knesset but I think a 5% threshold would force all those parties to unite with people they shared a lot with and it would make formation of a government far easier.
Forcing them to band together would create more broad-based catch-all parties have a moderating influence in democracy, because they encourage compromise and marginalise extreme views. For a country like Israel this would seem to be badly needed.

We have catch-all parties in Ireland but unfortunately the consensus-building element is largely eliminated by the crazy whip system. A more Westminister style of whip arrangement would give us a truer form of democracy.
 

Telemachus

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The Israeli system of PR seat allocation really is insane. In 2009 it resulted in a system where 21 of 120 seats (Over 20% of the whole parliament) were awarded to parties who got less than 4% support each.

This is designed to protect minority views, but only leads to crazy instability. And the "larger" parties will never club together to change it, because the history of Israel has been one of parties coming and going at a rate of knots. Eg. Kadima seem to have been reduced to 2 seats today.
Yah would be great if one or two parties could monopolise things :roll:
 

Ryan Tubbs

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Yah would be great if one or two parties could monopolise things :roll:
How would they monopolise things? Every country needs stable government. Larger parties deliver that, and if people don't like it they can throw them out. Simple as that.

The other ridiculous example is Italy.

But a good example is Greece, which excludes the tiny parties and gives a 50-seat bonus to the party with the largest mandate. Just think of where Greece would be today if they didn't have this system in place for the June election....
 

former wesleyan

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Supposed to be a 55.5% turnout. Anyone know what the stay-at-home demograph is ? I suspect that the Israeli Arabs thought it was a foregone conclusion, which is a pity as they could have swung it.
 

Rocky

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Netanyahu's electoral strategy of a Likud-Yisrael Beitenu joint list appears to have backfired, their combined predicted tally of 31 seats down almost 10 on the 2009 election. Labour have stagnated, only rising from 13 to 17, but the new centrist Yesh Atid party, which has focused predominantly on social issues has risen from nowhere to come second with 18 deputies. With Jewish Home's tally of 12, it's predicted the right will ultimately win 61 seats, compared with the centre and right's 59. Netanyahu looks like retaining his status as PM, but it's hardly the overwhelming mandate that was widely expected.
Labour have got from 7 to 17. Anything but stagnated.

It appears that Netanyahu will still be Prime Minister, but there's a good chance he might form a more centrist coalition and things considered it appears to be a very good night for the centre/left. Even if Netanyahu does try to form a right-wing coalition, it will have a very small majoirity and probably won't last long. The right is very diverse within itself as well.
 

former wesleyan

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Where are all the usual suspects with their encyclopediac knowlege of all things Israeli ?
 
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