J Stiglitz: Worst Recession Since Great Depression to Come

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Speaking as guest anchor on today's edition of CNBC's Squawk Box, respected Professor Joseph Stiglitz declared that the US economy faces its "worst recession since the great depression".

Prof. Stiglitz, a 2001 Nobel Prize winner for Economics and former World Bank Chief Economist, argued that the US was "most surely" in a recession and his real concern was "how long and how deep" it would last. He posited that with no savings, housing bust, and further unsustainable rises in food and energy costs (in other words higher costs and asset deflation) would drive the US economy to the worst recession in 80 years.

He also slammed the Bush administration's fiscal stimulus plan as "too little, too late", declaring that the Bush tax plan was not well thought out. As for the current Credit Crisis, he said that while it was not over yet, the concern of policy makers should now switch to the real economy.

Speaking on the same programme, Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs International, Robert Hormats, said that while he felt that the FED had done enough to prevent a systematic collapse of the global financial system he agreed with much of what Stiglitz said.

Video available at: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=722550381&play=1
 


Bogwarrior

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Not sure if this is related to the economoc downfall but...
Walmart and Costco are rationing rice sales to the public with only four bags per customer. :shock:
 

I_robert

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the-analyst2007 said:
Speaking as guest anchor on today's edition of CNBC's Squawk Box, respected Professor Joseph Stiglitz declared that the US economy faces its "worst recession since the great depression".

Prof. Stiglitz, a 2001 Nobel Prize winner for Economics and former World Bank Chief Economist, argued that the US was "most surely" in a recession and his real concern was "how long and how deep" it would last. He posited that with no savings, housing bust, and further unsustainable rises in food and energy costs (in other words higher costs and asset deflation) would drive the US economy to the worst recession in 80 years.

He also slammed the Bush administration's fiscal stimulus plan as "too little, too late", declaring that the Bush tax plan was not well thought out. As for the current Credit Crisis, he said that while it was not over yet, the concern of policy makers should now switch to the real economy.

Speaking on the same programme, Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs International, Robert Hormats, said that while he felt that the FED had done enough to prevent a systematic collapse of the global financial system he agreed with much of what Stiglitz said.

Video available at: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=722550381&play=1
Anyone sourcing the reliable "conspiracy nut" sites has know about this since last autumn, the controlled media is covering up until the Goldman-Sachs of this world cut and run, leaving the average Joe Blogs to bear the terrible brunt.
 

hopi watcher

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Catalpa said:
It's back to the spuds lads ... :(
Do you think will the farmers go back to the fields? It's been a cushy number for many a year now.
 
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You can nearly hear the tumbleweed running across this thread.

Here we have a very respected economist saying we're, to put it mildly, all f*ucked in the medium term, and no one cares...or wants to care.
 

GusherING

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Bogwarrior said:
Not sure if this is related to the economoc downfall but...
Walmart and Costco are rationing rice sales to the public with only four bags per customer. :shock:
That is to do with the global food shortages. Apparently rice prices have doubled in parts of the USA in the last month - the US seems to be the last place to have felt the pinch of food inflation. So I guess Stiglitz is right!!
 
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Also worth to note that the current ECB rate stands at 4% - today on Bloomberg TV the derived rate for September 2008 is 4.8%, albeit falling to 4.6% by year end......this means, and I stand to be corrected, that the market thinks the ECB will hike rates to closer to 5%.

What does this mean for Ireland?

(a) Property prices - freefall?

(b) The general economy?

Traders now think the Euro may have peaked therefore allowing the ECB to hike rates.
 

expat girl

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GusherING said:
Bogwarrior said:
Not sure if this is related to the economoc downfall but...
Walmart and Costco are rationing rice sales to the public with only four bags per customer. :shock:
That is to do with the global food shortages. Apparently rice prices have doubled in parts of the USA in the last month - the US seems to be the last place to have felt the pinch of food inflation. So I guess Stiglitz is right!!
Rice appears worst hit... the price of wheat has come down owing to the Ukraine lifting export restrictions (Finfacts ce matin)

Spuds it is so.... how many dacent cart horses have we left in the land, or will we have to do all of the ploughing by hand?? Serious oil crisis looming, the brown stuff is hitting the fan in Grangemouth. Please tell me we don't import petrol from the UK....the Unite guy at the refinery is doing a Scargill. The news tonight suggested the pipeline they'll shut off for the strike supplies 60 odd percent of UK road fuel

I'll be filling the tank tomorrow
 

Catalpa

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hopi watcher said:
Catalpa said:
It's back to the spuds lads ... :(
Do you think will the farmers go back to the fields? It's been a cushy number for many a year now.
Oh yeah Big Time!

If there's a World wide shortage of food the Farmers of ireland will be In The Money! :D

It's a case of whether they will share the Golden Egg with the rest of us is the big question? :evil:

But sure rest assured our Politicians will ensure the Farmers pay their fair share in Tax won't they? :?
 
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The fact that none of the above is not reported widely in the Irish media is testamount to the fact that we are living in an economic tinderbox.

Last week or so the head of the ECB declared that he was very worried about the housing situation in Ireland liking it to the situation in California (the worst hit US State for housing foreclosures) - was this the big headline of the day - no. As far as I am aware his comments were totally blackballed.
 

expat girl

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the-analyst2007 said:
The fact that none of the above is not reported widely in the Irish media is testamount to the fact that we are living in an economic tinderbox.

Last week or so the head of the ECB declared that he was very worried about the housing situation in Ireland liking it to the situation in California (the worst hit US State for housing foreclosures) - was this the big headline of the day - no. As far as I am aware his comments were totally blackballed.
Trust me when I say that I think housing is the least of our problems.......and I'm not saying that from a position of sunny optimism, either :cry:
 
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Catalpa said:
It's back to the spuds lads ... :(
Surprisingly enough it was featured in Economist as the one crop that will grow anywhere and would feed the world.

Was one of the few items that weren't rationed in UK during WW2.

No huge export market around the world because of Bulk.
 

expat girl

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odie1kanobe said:
Catalpa said:
It's back to the spuds lads ... :(
Surprisingly enough it was featured in Economist as the one crop that will grow anywhere and would feed the world.

Was one of the few items that weren't rationed in UK during WW2.

No huge export market around the world because of Bulk.
.....Phytophthora infestans...... did we learn nothing from 1845-50??

Every silver lining has a cloud....
 
G

Gimpanzee

expat girl said:
odie1kanobe said:
Catalpa said:
It's back to the spuds lads ... :(
Surprisingly enough it was featured in Economist as the one crop that will grow anywhere and would feed the world.

Was one of the few items that weren't rationed in UK during WW2.

No huge export market around the world because of Bulk.
.....Phytophthora infestans...... did we learn nothing from 1845-50??

Every silver lining has a cloud....
eh? you just have to spray the crop. This isn't 1848 anymore
 

spalpeen

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Other current related media stories in this vein include:

Load Up the Pantry
April 21, 2008 6:47 p.m.
Wall Street Journal
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120881517227532621.html

"I don't want to alarm anybody, but maybe it's time for Americans to start stockpiling food.
No, this is not a drill.
You've seen the TV footage of food riots in parts of the developing world. Yes, they're a long way away from the U.S. But most foodstuffs operate in a global market. When the cost of wheat soars in Asia, it will do the same here..."


Rice Shortage Roils San Francisco Stores, Food Banks
April 25 (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... nfTRHFqZFw

"A group of shoppers came into Farmer Joe's Marketplace in Oakland one morning this week and bought all the 50-pound bags of rice. A few miles away at Berkeley Bowl Marketplace, long-grain rice is sold out....."


Many states appear to be in recession as deficits grow
Apr 25 08:17 AM US/Eastern
By ANDREW WELSH-HUGGINS
Associated Press Writer (breitbart.com)

"The finances of many states have deteriorated so badly that they appear to be in a recession, regardless of whether that's true for the nation as a whole, a survey of all 50 state fiscal directors concludes.
The situation looks even worse for the fiscal year that begins July 1 in most states.

Whether or not the national economy is in recession—a subject of ongoing debate—is almost beside the point for some states," said the report to be released Friday by the National Conference of State Legislatures.
The weakening economy is hitting tax revenue in a number of ways: People's discretionary income is being gobbled up by higher food and fuel costs, while the tanking housing market means people are spending less on furniture and appliances associated with buying a house...."


Not good news in any direction you look. :(
 

spalpeen

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expat girl said:
GusherING said:
Bogwarrior said:
Not sure if this is related to the economoc downfall but...
Walmart and Costco are rationing rice sales to the public with only four bags per customer. :shock:
That is to do with the global food shortages. Apparently rice prices have doubled in parts of the USA in the last month - the US seems to be the last place to have felt the pinch of food inflation. So I guess Stiglitz is right!!
Rice appears worst hit... the price of wheat has come down owing to the Ukraine lifting export restrictions (Finfacts ce matin)

Spuds it is so.... how many dacent cart horses have we left in the land, or will we have to do all of the ploughing by hand?? Serious oil crisis looming, the brown stuff is hitting the fan in Grangemouth. Please tell me we don't import petrol from the UK....the Unite guy at the refinery is doing a Scargill. The news tonight suggested the pipeline they'll shut off for the strike supplies 60 odd percent of UK road fuel

I'll be filling the tank tomorrow
Petrol stations run dry ahead of Grangemouth refinery strike
From Times Online
April 25, 2008
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/b ... 815746.ece

"The Grangemouth oil refinery has now been completely shut down ahead of a 48-strike due to start on Sunday as Scottish petrol stations began to run dry after panic buying by motorists.
A spokeswoman for Ineos, the chemicals group that owns the country's biggest oil refinery stationed near Edinburgh, confirmed that the site closed today.
The process to close the plant began a week ago and and is expected to take up to three weeks to become fully operational again if Ineos management and the 1,200 workers due out on strike, reach an agreement over pensions..."


Oil prices to double by 2012: Canadian study
Apr 24 03:05 PM US/Eastern
breitbart.com
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id ... _article=1

"The price of oil is likely to hit 150 dollars (Canadian, US) a barrel by 2010 and soar to 225 dollars a barrel by 2012 as supply becomes increasingly tight, a Canadian bank said Thursday.
The CIBC report says the International Energy Agency's current oil production estimates overstate supply by about nine percent, since it wrongly counts natural gas liquids -- which are not viable for transportation fuel -- in its numbers.
Analyst Jeff Rubin in his report noted accelerating depletion rates in many of the world's largest and most mature oil fields. He estimates oil production will hardly grow at all, with average daily production between now and 2012 rising by barely a million barrels per day...."


And the hits just keep on coming.. :(
 


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