January 2010 car sales decline despite scrappage scheme

John Kalahan

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The number of new cars sold in January 2010 declined by 4.8% compared to January 2009 despite the scrappage scheme

It will be interesting to see how sales will go for the first three months.

32,961 new cars were sold in January 2008 compared to 10, 469 for January 2010


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Mitsui2

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My only surprise by this point is that they managed to sell 10,000. Anyone know when January car sales were last at such numbers?
 

Gobuchul

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because if my car is over 8 years old, more than likely I'm on the lower economic scale, and also more than likely I'm fearfull for my job, so the last thing i want to do is to buy a new car.
To my mind it was a useless misguided bit of distraction by the government.
Why encourage people to give large chunks of probably borrowed money to Germany or japan?
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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My only surprise by this point is that they managed to sell 10,000. Anyone know when January car sales were last at such numbers?
I think it was 1986 :eek:
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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And now with all the panic about the recalls of new hybrid cars in the media, this scrappage scheme is dead as a duck.
 

johnfás

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It is no surprise, the scrappage scheme makes no sense. As stated above, someone who is driving an 8 year old (or older) car likely does not have the money to buy a brand new car. In any case, why would they want to, particularly when there is a heavily deflated second hand market. If they want a scrappage scheme to work with brand new replacements it will have to include cars that are about 4/5 years old.
 

John Kalahan

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Its difficult to see how a scrappage scheme could be other than

Its difficult to see how a scrappage scheme could be other than a digout for foreign car manufacturers.

How much margin do retailers make selling a new car?

How many would have bought a new car without the scrappage scheme?

My hunch is that only those who could afford to buy a car did so in the current climate and that most of them would have bought in any event.

Mind you this government had almost gone as far as slaughtering the eldest child of garage owners with the ruinous Gormley intervention with Car taxation
 

Oldira1

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There was a guy from the SIMI on radio last week claiming sales had increased by 4% in January!!!!!

Was he drunk?
 

hammer

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My belief is that as cars become 10 years old throughout the year the monthly sales will be more stable. There wont be a pronounced fall off from January like normal years.

It is a kick in the teeth though for Motor Trade that retained staff on the assumption that there would be a SIGNIFICANT pick up.

More job losses & closures
 
B

Boggle

In any case, why would they want to, particularly when there is a heavily deflated second hand market.
Actually speaking of the second hand market - the brothers car is wrecked (bad buy tbh) so he went for a loan to buy a second hand one. The bank basically refused to give him a loan for a good second hand car (5k) and would only give him a loan for a new car bought from a main dealer. (He has stable, public sector job so no problem about the loan itself, just what it was used for)

Has anyone heard of anything like this before? Why would they do it?
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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This will mean retail sales in general will have plummeted in January. THe index for December 08 was 105.7. January 09 was 84.6. December 09 was 92.5, so expect January 2010 be around 75. Thats 25% off 2005 levels and 40% off January 2008. The VAT returns for January and February come in on March, so this will become apparent on April 2nd exchequer statement. Another budget in April?
 

Sync

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It never made sense. Anyone driving an 8 year old car isn't doing so because they were missing the 3k it took to get a new one. It was always silly stuff, especially when we had no motor industry to protect like UK/Germany. People like Harvey Normon can validly ask "Where's the TV scrappage scheme?"
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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There was a guy from the SIMI on radio last week claiming sales had increased by 4% in January!!!!!

Was he drunk?
The amount of happy pills that are being dispensed now is unreal. Its keeping the natives from being restless.
 

hammer

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Budget 2nd week April 2010.

My guess is 2% cut in pay & social welfare
Restriction of pension relief backdated to January 1, 2010
2c added to carbon tax
 

Partizan

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It is no surprise, the scrappage scheme makes no sense. As stated above, someone who is driving an 8 year old (or older) car likely does not have the money to buy a brand new car. In any case, why would they want to, particularly when there is a heavily deflated second hand market. If they want a scrappage scheme to work with brand new replacements it will have to include cars that are about 4/5 years old.
What do you expect? The scrappage scheme was designed to look after Zanu FF's buddies in the motor trade. To hell with the fact that many of us are up to our eyeballs in private debt and that we are contributing little to the Irish economy by importing cars made in Gernamy or Japan. Madness and it reflects that Lenny and Clowen are living in cloud cuckoo land.

The fact of the matter is that in the years ahead there will be lots of bangers on the road like there were in 1980s as people can ill afford to buy new ones. There are still a couple of pre 87 reg cars knocking around :D.

Who knows, Lada might be making a comeback.
 

MsAnneThrope

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There was a guy from the SIMI on radio last week claiming sales had increased by 4% in January!!!!!

Was he drunk?
He said it was 5% but called that number "misleading" (i.e. it should have been higher) - "There was good footfall in dealerships but who wants to collect a new car and drive it on an ice-rink?".

You can read Insolvency Journal's interview with SIMI director general Alan Nolan at this link:

Insolvency Journal, Feb 5th 2010: Hopes for a recovery in the motor trade

(off-topic but there is a big ex-finance, no reserve car auction this Saturday at Merlin in Naas. If you're considering a second-hand car it might be worth checking out. Details here)
 

hammer

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60% of applications to Banks for car finance is refused.

Might need to sort that first :)

Has anyone noticed that there seems to be about 20% less cars actually on the road.
 

Partizan

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I think it was 1986 :eek:
1986, ah the memories, lousy summer, mullets, good music, Hurricane Charlie, Waterford United had a decent team and Maradonna Hand of God.

If i can post a pic of that 1986 Toyota Starlet thats knocking around, do I get a free pint of Carlsberg?
 


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