Japanese General Election

GDPR

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A tad late as polls will not stay open for much longer, but it is deserving of its own thread nonetheless! The Japanese are heading to the polls today as a typhoon rages which may reduce voter turnout. Shinzo Abe called this election a while ago as the opposition is in disarray with the Democratic Party collapsing and Abe's own polling numbers were relatively good. The apparent goal is to increase the coalition (LDP/Komeito) majority in the House of Representatives.

A robust victory here would make it easier for Abe to win an LDP leadership competition next September, but more importantly it could ensure that there's the necessary majority for amending the pacifist constitution - One of Abe's main goals and undoubtedly a controversial issue in Japan and the region given the Japanese people's current pacifism coupled with the region's memories of Japanese expansionism.

Should Abe win, therefore, he might not just manage to push through the constitutional revisions he so dearly wants to see enacted, he could be the LDP's leader for an unprecedented third term and become Japan's longest serving prime minister.

Electoral reforms have reduced the size of the Lower House to a postwar low. It had 475 seats before it was dissolved, with 287 occupied by the LDP and 35 by Komeito.

As part of its election platform, the LDP said it will include in forthcoming debate on constitutional reform the idea of adding an explicit mention of the Self-Defense Forces. The status of the SDF under the Constitution is debated, since Article 9 renounces war and the maintenance of “war potential.”

A two-thirds majority in both Diet houses is needed to formally propose a constitutional amendment, which must then gain a majority of votes in a national referendum.

Dissolving the Lower House on Sept. 28, Abe said he needed to secure a fresh mandate from the public for his administration’s plans for the revenue from a consumption tax increase in October 2019 and for its handling of the threat from North Korea.

But the move appeared timed to take advantage of disarray among the opposition. It also allowed Abe to shelve a fall parliamentary session that would have seen him questioned again about cronyism allegations that have damaged his brand this year.
Sixty-two percent of the parliament's 465 seats are allotted to candidates who win in their constituencies, and 38 percent of seats are distributed according to party.
For more:

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/10/22/national/politics-diplomacy/voting-underway-lower-house-race-typhoon-may-aid-ruling-coalition/#.WexfhFu0OUk
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/10/21/national/politics-diplomacy/voters-set-deliver-verdict-abe-lower-house-election/#.WexfiFu0OUk
Japan: Is a new sun rising for Japan
Japan heads to polls amid powerful typhoon | News | DW | 22.10.2017
 


GDPR

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It would seem that Abe might just get there - or fall just short of the two-thirds majority necessary for amending Japan's pacifist constitution.

Abe's Liberal Democartic Party (LDP) was on track to win 311 seats - 25 more than it currently holds - in the 465-seat chamber in the lower house of parliament, according to the latest projections from TBS, a private broadcaster.

That would give it a super-majority with the authority to amend Japan's post-war constitution that was imposed by the United States and requires Tokyo to "renounce" war and limit its military role. Other broadcasters, however, are predicting the LDP will fall just short of the super majority mark.
Japan
 

blokesbloke

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It would seem that Abe might just get there - or fall just short of the two-thirds majority necessary for amending Japan's pacifist constitution.



Japan
Very important with the current situation with North Korea.

I wonder if any minor party or even independents would be prepared to give him the super majority?

If the constitution is amended it would raise the stakes with North Korea and upset China.
 

Degeneration X

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Liberal Democratic Party wins again - you wonder why the Japanese even bother to vote!
 

randomwalk

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Amazing that the main opposition party, only formed in 2016, collapsed like 20 days ago. I'm sure even Theresa May could have won this election.
 

Windowshopper

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I didn't know there was an election happening they seem to be fairly frequent in Japan. I suppose given the Liberal Democrats/Japanese Fianna Fáil's dominance instability would come from the various fractions within the party.

Why are the Democrat's in disarrey this time?
 

Windowshopper

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According to Wikipedia the Democrats have spilt in two with the Governor of Tokyo (conservative) spilting from the party to form Kibō no Tō (Party of Hope)taking a large slice of the party with her, and the liberal faction reconstituing themselves as the Constitutional Democrats. The opposition has basically spilt in two with the Constittional Democrats edging ahead.
 

Windowshopper

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According to Wiki the Constitutional Democrats seem to favour the pacifist clause. No info about the Party of Hope's position.
 
D

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I didn't know there was an election happening they seem to be fairly frequent in Japan. I suppose given the Liberal Democrats/Japanese Fianna Fáil's dominance instability would come from the various fractions within the party.

Why are the Democrat's in disarrey this time?
Very frequent indeed, Windowshopper. They're obsessed with them. They used to go to great lengths to have them as often as possible, and seemed to be obsessed with having them last. Thank goodness for Ringaskiddy Blue; seems to have eased the pressure on the black rhino population.
 


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