• It has come to our attention that some users may have been "banned" when they tried to change their passwords after the site was hacked due to a glitch in the old vBulletin software. This would have occurred around the end of February and does not apply after the site was converted to Xenforo. If you believe you were affected by this, please contact a staff member or use the Contact us link at the bottom of any forum page.

John Drennan's Guide to Irish Politics


Joined
Feb 21, 2003
Messages
4,265
Website
www.politics.ie
Twitter
davidcochrane
The Sunday Independent's John Drennan has produced a supplement with today's SINDO (called John Drennan's Guide to Irish Politics) where he predicts the outcome of the next General Election on a constituency-by-constituency basis.

He predicts that Labour will be the largest party on 56 seats, with Fine Gael on 54 seats, he anticipates that FF will almost half their seats to 42 seats and believes the Greens will be wiped out.

Code:
FF    42
FG    54
Lab   56
SF     6
Ind    8
Amongst the various writings, a column entitled "The dozen we've got to dump" names TDs who are the "weakest links". Amongst the names are Bertie Ahern, Dermot Ahern (who he calls an "un-original timserver whose day is done"), Barry Andrews ("a dull dynast who has nothing to offer outside affable banality"), Simon Coveney (which Drennan simply writes "see Barry Andrews"), Brian Cowen ("the worst Irish Taoiseach we have ever suffered"), Noel Demspey ("sole achivement of this 'great thinker' consists of a tax on plastic bags"), Mary Harney (Drennan writes that Harney "destroyed two departments ... off you go now dear ..."), Sean Haughey ("what has he done of note?"), Brendan Smith ("quite useless in every job he was asked to do") and Michael Woods ("old Leinster House ghost who should be pottering around watering the tomato plants").

In another article Drennan lists out the TDs whom he believes are most at-risk of losing their seats, he lists Mary Harney, John Gormley, Barry Andrews, Eamon Ryan, Batt O'Keefe, Pat Carey, Mary Hanafin, Micheal Martin, Brendan Smith and Mary Coughlan as most at risk.
 

sandar

Well-known member
Joined
May 26, 2007
Messages
1,854
great stuff from him, didnt know he was so anti FF
 

cricket

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 7, 2009
Messages
14,029
The Sunday Independent's John Drennan has produced a supplement with today's SINDO (called John Drennan's Guide to Irish Politics) where he predicts the outcome of the next General Election on a constituency-by-constituency basis.

He predicts that Labour will be the largest party on 56 seats, with Fine Gael on 54 seats, he anticipates that FF will almost half their seats to 42 seats and believes the Greens will be wiped out.

Code:
FF    42
FG    54
Lab   56
SF     6
Ind    8
Amongst the various writings, a column entitled "The dozen we've got to dump" names TDs who are the "weakest links". Amongst the names are Bertie Ahern, Dermot Ahern (who he calls an "un-original timserver whose day is done"), Barry Andrews ("a dull dynast who has nothing to offer outside affable banality"), Simon Coveney (which Drennan simply writes "see Barry Andrews"), Brian Cowen ("the worst Irish Taoiseach we have ever suffered"), Noel Demspey ("sole achivement of this 'great thinker' consists of a tax on plastic bags"), Mary Harney (Drennan writes that Harney "destroyed two departments ... off you go now dear ..."), Sean Haughey ("what has he done of note?"), Brendan Smith ("quite useless in every job he was asked to do") and Michael Woods ("old Leinster House ghost who should be pottering around watering the tomato plants").

In another article Drennan lists out the TDs whom he believes are most at-risk of losing their seats, he lists Mary Harney, John Gormley, Barry Andrews, Eamon Ryan, Batt O'Keefe, Pat Carey, Mary Hanafin, Micheal Martin, Brendan Smith and Mary Coughlan as most at risk.

I know I've said this elsewhere on this site , I was told at the time of the last election by a PD that , no matter what the outcome , Mary Harney would never stand again.
 

Conchubhairb

Member
Joined
Oct 2, 2010
Messages
34
Quite mindblowing figures for a Sindo publication. He argues that while the FF figure is incredibly low, on a constituency by const basis, that's the way the cookie crumbles, and in many cases FF have been given the benefit of the doubt.

This (and the Red C and others) point towards sticky decision making time following the next election.

Also points to some big questions for FG and Lab in election strategy in some constituencies - play it safe and rake in the seats, or go for gold and have secondary candidates running just in case the FF vote collapses to the extent that there are votes to mop up.
 

sandar

Well-known member
Joined
May 26, 2007
Messages
1,854
his description of andrews and coveney could be used for most of the parlaimnet, ncluding the taoiseach and coughlan
 

TommyO'Brien

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 14, 2009
Messages
12,222
labour ooooooh labour boooogey man
Got it in one.

It is the usual trick from INM which brought you 'payback time' as revenge for Richard Bruton refusing to do what suited INM's business, and abuses Cowen not because it disapproves of his policies but because he wouldn't bail out Sir Anthony's Waterford Glass. They build up the pretence of Labour winning more seats to justify months of editorials and columns attacking Labour.

It is the oldest trick in the INM book. The figures in Drennan's 'predictions' are garbage. I doubt even if he believes them. They were created by the paper to push an agenda.
 

dotski_w_

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 28, 2004
Messages
2,485
Website
irishpollingreport.wordpress.com
The Sunday Independent's John Drennan has produced a supplement with today's SINDO (called John Drennan's Guide to Irish Politics) where he predicts the outcome of the next General Election on a constituency-by-constituency basis.

He predicts that Labour will be the largest party on 56 seats, with Fine Gael on 54 seats, he anticipates that FF will almost half their seats to 42 seats and believes the Greens will be wiped out.

Code:
FF    42
FG    54
Lab   56
SF     6
Ind    8
Amongst the various writings, a column entitled "The dozen we've got to dump" names TDs who are the "weakest links". Amongst the names are Bertie Ahern, Dermot Ahern (who he calls an "un-original timserver whose day is done"), Barry Andrews ("a dull dynast who has nothing to offer outside affable banality"), Simon Coveney (which Drennan simply writes "see Barry Andrews"), Brian Cowen ("the worst Irish Taoiseach we have ever suffered"), Noel Demspey ("sole achivement of this 'great thinker' consists of a tax on plastic bags"), Mary Harney (Drennan writes that Harney "destroyed two departments ... off you go now dear ..."), Sean Haughey ("what has he done of note?"), Brendan Smith ("quite useless in every job he was asked to do") and Michael Woods ("old Leinster House ghost who should be pottering around watering the tomato plants").

In another article Drennan lists out the TDs whom he believes are most at-risk of losing their seats, he lists Mary Harney, John Gormley, Barry Andrews, Eamon Ryan, Batt O'Keefe, Pat Carey, Mary Hanafin, Micheal Martin, Brendan Smith and Mary Coughlan as most at risk.
Hmmmm .....pretty close to my poll of polls....

Poll of Polls « Irish Polling Report

FF 23.3% – 41 seats (1 less than him)
FG 28.2% – 50 seats (4 less)
LP 30.2% – 62 seats (6 more)
SF 7.3% – 5 seats (1 less)
GP 2.3% – 0 seats (same)
OTH 8.6% – 8 seats (same)

would disagree that Coughlan, Smith or Martin have a serious chance of losing, but most of the others have an uphill battle on current polls

is there a link?
 

FionnMc

Active member
Joined
Sep 17, 2007
Messages
153
Amongst his list of 25 TDs "to help save the State" he lists:

  • Lucinda Creighton
  • John Deasy
  • Beverly Flynn
  • Conor Lenihan
  • Willie O'Dea
  • Eamon Ryan
Good Christ, have we not suffered enough? If we're relying on that shower of useless incompetent windbags to save us then we're royally stuffed.

Clearly Drennan doesn't care about having any credibility but then I suppose that's self-evident if you write for the Sindo.
 

dotski_w_

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 28, 2004
Messages
2,485
Website
irishpollingreport.wordpress.com
It is the oldest trick in the INM book. The figures in Drennan's 'predictions' are garbage. I doubt even if he believes them.
there's some in FG who would disagree, apparently....

Who fears to speak of ’92? « Irish Polling Report

The signals of Labour’s sustained support have been there for months in newspaper polls, on the doorsteps and in private polling carried out by the parties. ‘‘If we come back with the same percentage of the vote we will lose five to seven seats,” predicted one Fine Gael source.

If we are in the region of 27 to 28 per cent in a general election we’ll be in loss-making territory.

As it is Fine Gael and Labour will be struggling to get their candidates over the line in some areas, but Labour will benefit from transfers from Sinn Fein, the Greens and the independent vote,” he said.

Whereas Fine Gael used to be the party with the greatest seat bounce at elections, next time around it will be Labour, the source predicted.

If Fine Gael dips below 30 per cent, existing seats will be lost. ‘

There is an unwillingness to believe it, but at times the numbers can be an exact science,” a Fine Gael source said.
 

sondagefaux

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 2, 2009
Messages
15,682
Amongst his list of 25 TDs "to help save the State" he lists:

  • Lucinda Creighton
  • John Deasy
  • Beverly Flynn
  • Conor Lenihan
  • Willie O'Dea
  • Eamon Ryan
Good Christ, have we not suffered enough? If we're relying on that shower of useless incompetent windbags to save us then we're royally stuffed.

Clearly Drennan doesn't care about having any credibility but then I suppose that's self-evident if you write for the Sindo.
Beverly 'advised people how to hide their money from the taxman' Flynn? Willie 'swore incorrect affidavit' O'Dea? Only if the main problems facing Ireland are potholes and street lights.
 

Craiced

Active member
Joined
Nov 20, 2007
Messages
299
It was a good idea for a supplement but John Drennan's political bias towards Labour rubbishes all 24 pages.
Page 2 - Gilmores poster towers above the lowly Kenny
Page 5 - "25 TD's to save the nation" An attractive picture (a true rarity) of Joan Burton takes centre stage.
Page 7 - "Voters don't want Kenny or Cowen" headline
Page 9 - A general dig at the smaller parties, PD's, SF, Greens, IND
Page 11 - Killer questions that will haunt Cowen and Kenny
Back Page- Labour X-factor stars get main picture.

Overall this supplement is sadly lacking in-depth knowledge of the constituencies. The prospect of Labour achieving 56 seats in fanciful. The Labour party are given the 'breaking ball' in each constituency where it is close.

The author’s bias towards Labour is best shown in his comments about Wicklow. While momentarily salvalating about the prospect of 3 Labour seats in Wicklow he then concedes - "we think that even Gilmore's Labour will not get everything it wants ... or for that matter, deserves."

I nearly vomited into my morning cornflakes.
 

dotski_w_

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 28, 2004
Messages
2,485
Website
irishpollingreport.wordpress.com
Amongst his list of 25 TDs "to help save the State" he lists:

  • Lucinda Creighton
  • John Deasy
  • Beverly Flynn
  • Conor Lenihan
  • Willie O'Dea
  • Eamon Ryan
Good Christ, have we not suffered enough? If we're relying on that shower of useless incompetent windbags to save us then we're royally stuffed.

Clearly Drennan doesn't care about having any credibility but then I suppose that's self-evident if you write for the Sindo.

I suppose on the plus side he recognises that they are all in trouble... ;)
 

Pabilito

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 24, 2008
Messages
5,596
The political environment has altered radically and things are now changing daily, soon they will be changing by the hour as it gets more volatile. No one can predict what will happen when we eventually do have an election. This next election will be entirely different from any to date and the old style predictions are for the bin.

We didn’t have riots on the streets but we will certainly have riots in the ballot box.. the people are quietly angry but finally awakened to the treachery of politicians bearing false promises.. It’s all very different now and the results are completely up in the air.
 

Republican-Socialist

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 4, 2007
Messages
987
Amongst his list of 25 TDs "to help save the State" he lists:

  • Lucinda Creighton
  • John Deasy
  • Beverly Flynn
  • Conor Lenihan
  • Willie O'Dea
  • Eamon Ryan
Good Christ, have we not suffered enough? If we're relying on that shower of useless incompetent windbags to save us then we're royally stuffed.

Clearly Drennan doesn't care about having any credibility but then I suppose that's self-evident if you write for the Sindo.
When I saw this thread this was my first thought...O'Dea and Creighton. Sweet Jesus.

This guy is a clown. But it is the Sunday Indo in fairness.

And he really has a dislike for RBB, as well as any socialist. Again, it is the Sunday Indo, one of the worst papers in Ireland. And no it was someone elses copy, I didn't buy it.
 

darkhorse

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 12, 2005
Messages
18,210
There is a long way to go before the next general election and noone cant predict what the result will be - unless they want to sell their views in a newspaper like John Drennan. Anything could happen between now and July 2012. My view is that Labour's fake populist economic policies will be exposed by then and the battle will be between those parties who are have serious econimic policies such as FF and FG.
 
Top