Justin Trudeau in a spot of bother

Ardillaun

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If Trudeau wins, one hopes he’ll lay the self-regard on a little less thick, more in line with the Liberal PMs since his dad: Turner, Chrétien and Martin. It’s a credit to them that they’re not household names outside Canada.
 
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soubresauts

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... In the UK, a man blatantly unfit to be PM may still win an election and in the US a man not suited to running a small shop may well be reelected president. Compared to them Trudeau is a world class statesman although I realise this isn't saying much.
Obviously it has escaped your notice that Trudeau is an idiot.
 

midlander12

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I couldn't care less who wins the Canadian election but I have always regarded Canadians as mainly sensible people . I can't believe they will cast their vote influenced by something a man did twenty years ago as a bit of fun. Ok, hes shown himself to be a hypocrite but its only in recent years this has become a big deal.

In the UK, a man blatantly unfit to be PM may still win an election and in the US a man not suited to running a small shop may well be reelected president. Compared to them Trudeau is a world class statesman although I realise this isn't saying much.
You're right. He is both a clown and a hypocrite but the latter has always been a requirement for political success while the former appears to have recently become one. Either way, his credibility is shot.

BTW I don't accept 'blackface' was generally acceptable 18 years ago (and probably not in Canada anyway) and other people who were at the party have said they were more than surprised by his appearance. Hence my view that he is at best a clown - given who he was then (i.e. the scion of the country's most prominent political family) he must or should have known better.
 
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midlander12

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The Canadian election appears to be now a statistical dead heat betweeen the Tories and the Libs on about 33-34% each. It's not exactly much of a triumph for Scheer but it's still a fair swing from 39 to 32% last time. The NDP is down as well (about 5%) and the only real gainers are the Greens on 10%.


I presume the most likely outcome is some arrangement between the Libs, the NDP and the Greens?
 

Ardillaun

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The Canadian election appears to be now a statistical dead heat betweeen the Tories and the Libs on about 33-34% each. It's not exactly much of a triumph for Scheer but it's still a fair swing from 39 to 32% last time. The NDP is down as well (about 5%) and the only real gainers are the Greens on 10%.


I presume the most likely outcome is some arrangement between the Libs, the NDP and the Greens?
Right now, a Liberal win looks slightly more likely. The popular vote may be misleading because the Conservatives are so strong in the West, leaving FPTP to work its magic:

That is one scenario that could play out in 2019. The polls might continue to show a neck-and-neck race through to election day, and the result could be counterintuitive. The Poll Tracker consistently has shown the Conservatives leading (if narrowly) in national voting intentions but trailing the Liberals in the seat projection.

Alberta and Saskatchewan could play the role for Andrew Scheer's Conservatives that Quebec played for Pierre Trudeau's Liberals in 1979 — giving him lots of extra votes that pump up his national numbers but do not help him win extra seats in the rest of the country.
 
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Ardillaun

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Traditionally, the Conservatives depend on left-wing parties splitting the left-of-centre vote. This time Scheer also has a competitor, Maxime Bernier, to his right who may swing a few tight races esp. in Ontario and BC away from the Conservatives to the Liberals. Bernier seems to have a lot of supporters online but will be lucky to win his own seat.

Anything less than a majority for the biggest party will probably mean minority government; the last federal coalition government was a century ago during WWI. Formal coalitions are still avoided here. Stephen Harper led two minority governments.


I just returned to Canada from abroad and am detecting no enthusiasm for this election. That would usually help the incumbent but JT got a lot of votes from young people last time with his 'sunny ways' message. Such apathy may also explain the stable polling numbers.
 
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locke

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First past the post can be a very strange beast when multiple parties are competitive.

Take Quebec where there are 4 1/2 parties.

Opinion polling gives pretty much no change in the Conservative or Liberal vote, but the NDP appear to have lost about 40% of their support, with half going to the Bloc Québecois, a quarter to the Greens and a quarter to the PPC

I know uniform-swing Swingometers can be a bit dodgy for substantial movements in support, but plug that into a swingometer and what do you see?

Unsurprisingly, the Bloc Québecois are up 11 seats and the NDP are down 14. Perhaps more surprisingly when there are no changes in their vote, the Liberals are up 5 and the Conservatives down 2..
 

Ardillaun

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FPTP works best with two parties and favours regional parties.

In the 1993 Canadian federal election, the Bloc Québécois got 13.5% of the popular vote and 54 seats, making them the Official Opposition, whereas the Progressive Conservatives with 16% got a grand total of 2.


Such disparity between the popular vote and seats recalls the contrasting fortunes of UKIP and the SNP in 2015.

 
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Ardillaun

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The Tories are getting a bit stronger:


One thing helping them is the BQ in Quebec, who have gone a little nativist of late, taking votes and potential seats from the Liberals. This would leave the Cons with the most seats. In most countries the logical next step would be a coalition but Canadian political culture has preferred minority governments.
 

mr_anderson

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None of these people are ‘idiots’. Trudeau has beaten many opponents who underestimated him.
Beating an opponent in an election and successfully running a country are 2 entirely different skills.

Many examples of people being good with the former, but bad with the latter.
 

Ardillaun

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Beating an opponent in an election and successfully running a country are 2 entirely different skills.

Many examples of people being good with the former, but bad with the latter.
Trudeau hasn’t been that bad at running the country. Every govt. has scandals and getting new pipelines built in Canada has been a nightmare for decades (to hear the Tories talk you’d think Harper was building one a week). He has some of Enda Kenny’s virtues, stamina and toughness, that are harder to see or hear than oratorical skills. If he does survive, I would expect less talk about the joys of immigration and budget deficits, and if he doesn’t, Scheer is not massively different from him anyway. One thing I liked about Trudeau was the town hall meetings he ran across the country as PM where he took a load of flak in front of the cameras.
 
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Ardillaun

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Naughty talk from Jagmeet with c-word being mentioned:


A left-of-centre coalition would make more policy sense than some of the strange Irish beasties seen over the years.

There was a death threat against Trudeau over the weekend. Here's how Conrad Black's former paper (still no friend of JT's) covered the incident:

 
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