Kerry: Call the next GE constituency results

Breanainn

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This is the second time that the unified five-seater Kerry constituency has been contested, with the 2016 TDs as follows:

Brassil (FF)
Ferris (SF)
Griffin (FG)
Danny Healy-Rae (Ind)
Michael Healy-Rae (Ind)

There is a mixture of urban (Tralee, Listowel, Killarney) and rural districts in the constituency, with a 3:2 breakdown between South Kerry and North Kerry seats. Traditionally, there has been one left-wing seat here, and given the current weakness of the Spring dynasty, Toireasa Ferris should retain her father's seat. Brendan Griffin is safe for FG, but the disarray surrounding the local convention makes any party gains highly unlikely.

Similarly, Brassil has a firm FF quota, but his current running mate, Norma Moriarty underwhelmed in South Kerry. Last time, both Healy-Raes secured 38% of the vote, but benefited from the shock retirement of Tom Fleming, who will contest the next GE.

On balance, I predict no change, with only Fleming having the potential to cause an upset:

1 FF
1 FG
1 SF
2 Healy-Rae
 


statsman

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Feb 25, 2011
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55,054
This is the second time that the unified five-seater Kerry constituency has been contested, with the 2016 TDs as follows:

Brassil (FF)
Ferris (SF)
Griffin (FG)
Danny Healy-Rae (Ind)
Michael Healy-Rae (Ind)

There is a mixture of urban (Tralee, Listowel, Killarney) and rural districts in the constituency, with a 3:2 breakdown between South Kerry and North Kerry seats. Traditionally, there has been one left-wing seat here, and given the current weakness of the Spring dynasty, Toireasa Ferris should retain her father's seat. Brendan Griffin is safe for FG, but the disarray surrounding the local convention makes any party gains highly unlikely.

Similarly, Brassil has a firm FF quota, but his current running mate, Norma Moriarty underwhelmed in South Kerry. Last time, both Healy-Raes secured 38% of the vote, but benefited from the shock retirement of Tom Fleming, who will contest the next GE.

On balance, I predict no change, with only Fleming having the potential to cause an upset:

1 FF
1 FG
1 SF
2 Healy-Rae
At least there isn't a third Healy-Rae
 

Dame_Enda

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This is the more rural but also the more Republican part of the constituency. I still vaguely recall the Meath West by election before SF got a seat here and the media was interested at the strong SF vote (I think Joe Reilly was the candidate).

I think with just 3 seats, a split SF vote could put the seat in jeopardy. The constituency voted 63% for repeal of the 8th, despite being the more rural, conservative part of the county (relatively). Labour did come fourth in 2011 but that was when they were nationally on 19% so they have no hope this time and even then they were 1200 votes (approx) behind the winner of the last seat.

If the election is called and Toibin is not allowed run for SF and he decides to run as an Independent, I predict 1 FF and 2 FG. If he is allowed to run I predict 1 FF, 1 FG and 1 SF.
 

statsman

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This is the more rural but also the more Republican part of the constituency. I still vaguely recall the Meath West by election before SF got a seat here and the media was interested at the strong SF vote (I think Joe Reilly was the candidate).

I think with just 3 seats, a split SF vote could put the seat in jeopardy. The constituency voted 63% for repeal of the 8th, despite being the more rural, conservative part of the county (relatively). Labour did come fourth in 2011 but that was when they were nationally on 19% so they have no hope this time and even then they were 1200 votes (approx) behind the winner of the last seat.

If the election is called and Toibin is not allowed run for SF and he decides to run as an Independent, I predict 1 FF and 2 FG. If he is allowed to run I predict 1 FF, 1 FG and 1 SF.
Wrong thread?
 

flavirostris

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Can't see any change here. The 2 Healy-Rae brothers will retain their seats, although the return of Fleming is a setback to them.
 

peader odonnell

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Cant see Danny"it's ok to drink and drive" retaking his seat , the silent majority of very decent Kerry voters will see to that.
 

automaticforthepeople

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Cant see Danny"it's ok to drink and drive" retaking his seat , the silent majority of very decent Kerry voters will see to that.
I tend to share your view, Danny may find his first preference vote lower than he expects while the brains in the family won't have as high a first preference vote to transfer to Danny. Danny is in trouble and will be fighting for the last seat.

Any truth in the rumour FG have approached Colm Cooper to run? FG must be desperate as the whole affair of the self promotion of Cooper with his "dinner" in Dublin will have taken the shine off the gooch among GAA supporters in the Kingdom.

I suspect another Spring will spring forward for Labour and with a bit of work will outpoll what the last Spring sprung in the Spring election of 2016! That said he won't be there for the last count.
 

Paddypogue66

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Wouldn’t believe rumors about Gooch or Donaghy being asked to run for FG, as they say paper never refused ink!!, just wild rumors flying around as FG haven’t secured a 2nd candidate yet to run with B.Griffin,
Will be interesting to see who will emerge from the embers of the Labour Party will we see a Phoenix rise from the ashes ?
Danny will be under pressure to hold on, as this election will be won and lost in the greater Killarney area with a few entrants from the area, Danny, Kelliher, Fleming, and possibly Gleason a lot of snouts in the same trough !
 

seanof

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Wouldn’t believe rumors about Gooch or Donaghy being asked to run for FG, as they say paper never refused ink!!, just wild rumors flying around as FG haven’t secured a 2nd candidate yet to run with B.Griffin,
Will be interesting to see who will emerge from the embers of the Labour Party will we see a Phoenix rise from the ashes ?
Danny will be under pressure to hold on, as this election will be won and lost in the greater Killarney area with a few entrants from the area, Danny, Kelliher, Fleming, and possibly Gleason a lot of snouts in the same trough !
As the late Jackie Healy Rae might have said, "there isn't the smallest chance in this wide earthly world" that the labour party will win a seat in Kerry in the next election, the one after or probably ever again. Dan and Dick Spring's votes were almost entirely personal.
 

Traleeman

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Wont be a Spring on the ballot paper. Hearing strong news that a well placed Doctor from Kerry University Hospital will be the Candidate.
 

Breanainn

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2,950
Wouldn’t believe rumors about Gooch or Donaghy being asked to run for FG, as they say paper never refused ink!!, just wild rumors flying around as FG haven’t secured a 2nd candidate yet to run with B.Griffin,
Will be interesting to see who will emerge from the embers of the Labour Party will we see a Phoenix rise from the ashes ?
Danny will be under pressure to hold on, as this election will be won and lost in the greater Killarney area with a few entrants from the area, Danny, Kelliher, Fleming, and possibly Gleason a lot of snouts in the same trough !
It was reportedly Griffin who asked Donaghy, if you believed the papers.
 

Paddypogue66

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With FF picking only one candidate at of yet at convention who do ye think will be added along with John Brassil, will Norma get the nod again or will the reemergence of John “The Bull O’Donoughue scupper her chances ? what about Cllr Kelliher running in the Killarney area to stem the Healy Rea’s ?, I believe Tommy MAC has no chance of being a candidate.
 

statsman

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I tend to share your view, Danny may find his first preference vote lower than he expects while the brains in the family won't have as high a first preference vote to transfer to Danny. Danny is in trouble and will be fighting for the last seat.

Any truth in the rumour FG have approached Colm Cooper to run? FG must be desperate as the whole affair of the self promotion of Cooper with his "dinner" in Dublin will have taken the shine off the gooch among GAA supporters in the Kingdom.

I suspect another Spring will spring forward for Labour and with a bit of work will outpoll what the last Spring sprung in the Spring election of 2016! That said he won't be there for the last count.
If Danny loses out, who'll take the seat?
 


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