Kerry: Call the next GE constituency results

statsman

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Latest updated predictions from across the threads.

FG - 58 - 59
FF - 49 - 53
SF - 22 - 24
Lab - 3 - 5
PBP - 1 - 2
Sol - 1
SD - 3
Green - 2
Indo - 16 15
Other - 0

Note that because the ranges per constituency can often involve more than two parties, there's no simple adding up to 160.
These figures include 1 FF for the CC.
 


paullott

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Would be inclined to agree with others that Danny HRs seat is the most at risk - probably from FF or Fleming. Can't see a second FG seat or a Labour comeback. Doubt if any of the recent GAA stars would take a chance at the moment but you never know what the future may hold. Many Healy Rae voters are "silent" ones too so it's more difficult to gauge support. All in all, no great prospect of change - yet.
 

statsman

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The current state of our predictions, using a simpler model for the range:

FG
Max: 66
Min: 51

FF
Max: 52
Min 41

SF
Max 25
Min 22

Lab
Max: 8
Min:3

PBP
Max: 3
Min: 1

Sol
Max: 2
Min: 1

SD
Max: 4
Min: 3

Green
Max: 2
Min: 0

Indos/others
Max: 21
Min: 16
 

gijoe

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Well the Shinners will now definitely lose their seat. Toireasa who already withdrew from the GE is now resigning her Council in the next few weeks only months after the election. The Shinners have no credible candidate now to win the seat. Pa Daly just would not be strong enough and it was the whiff of sulphur from Martin that was the basis of the seat. The Healy Rae's have been eating SF's lunch with their work rate.

Labour are in no position to take the seat although Terry O'Brien might now be tempted with the Ferris' out of the picture. The odds are either a 2nd FF or FG seat. With FG odds on with it being a North Kerry seat.
 

Bea C

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My cousin, Cllr Pa, has just declared his enthusiasm to Jerry O'Sullivan.
Good luck to him!
As a card-carrying member of FF, I am open to persuasion.
Let's just say those who are supposed to be representing me haven't me swept off my feet right now.
 

Bea C

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Fingers crossed - cause this would be amazing

 

gijoe

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Tralee is wide open now so the obvious 3rd candidate for FF would be Norma. I can see Terry O'Brien being tempted back in with the Ferris' gone. And there will be renewed interest in North Kerry FG with the latest developments - don't rule out Jimmy Deenihan making a surprise return, you heard it here first.......
 

gijoe

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With Tralee wide open it could reignite the speculation on Star as a candidate!
 

MOSS1

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While the SF seat is the most marginal of the 5 (and this was already the case before the Ferris withdrawal or even before the initial Ferris retirement) they still look favourites to hold it. Pa Daly has had a reasonable spell as a Cllr, polled pretty well in May and SF vote held up reasonably well in Kerry in contrast to other parts of the country - 2 seats each in Tralee and Listowel, also a reasonable chunk of votes for both themselves and the Greens in Dingle. Yes a poor show elsewhere in the old south Kerry but they've long struggled down there even as Ferris took off in the North.

There also must surely be a Tralee seat. It's by far the biggest population centre in Kerry. No Spring on the ticket gives SF a further boost surely.

Looking at the others. I don't think either FF or FG have the votes for an extra seat. Obvious temptation is for FF to run Norma Foley. However they already effectively hold 3 of the 5 seats and is she not too close to John Brassil? Theoretically a strong Tralee candidate could put FG in the mix but their performance in the locals wasn't great. Another issue for FG there I think is that Brendan Griffin is perfectly located in the middle of the constituency which is great for him personally but crestes a challenge for the party as he will encroach on some of the area that might be allocated to a north Kerry candidate. Then there's Labour. Terry O'brien if he's interested would do well in Tralee. However the party seems to have as good as disappeared elsewhere in the county, Marie Maloney just scraped in in Killarney. Some have suggested the Rae faction may run a 3rd candidate but their support doesn't seem to translate as readily to non-family members. And again FF already hold 3 of the 5 seats and 4 is a push too far.

Jimmy Deenihan was a 1/50 shot the night before polling day in 2016 so you can never discount any shocks but right now 4 seats seem easy to call and the last is still SF's to lose.
 

MOSS1

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The Sunday Times today reporting that Pascal Donohoe has been having talks with Cllr Aoife Thornton, the poll topper in Listowel where FG did very well winning 3 out of 6 in what was otherwise not a great election for them in Kerry. However she seemingly doesn't want to run. This was also the story back around convention time when initially she was being flagged as a potential candidate but pulled back.
 

Bea C

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Is Norma a lesbian?
What the **** does that mean?
Even if she were - which as a woman married over ten years she's not - what difference would it make?
And what ****ing business is it of yours?
 

Bea C

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The Sunday Times today reporting that Pascal Donohoe has been having talks with Cllr Aoife Thornton, the poll topper in Listowel where FG did very well winning 3 out of 6 in what was otherwise not a great election for them in Kerry. However she seemingly doesn't want to run. This was also the story back around convention time when initially she was being flagged as a potential candidate but pulled back.
She's said more than once that she doesn't want to run. She has very young children.
It would be amazing to get Norma on the ticket.
The thought of a third Healy Rae makes me want to emigrate to New Zealand.
 

Bea C

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I'm devastated.


 

locke

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with a 3:2 breakdown between South Kerry and North Kerry seats.
That's the current split, but surely it's caused by the strong Healy-Rae support across the constituency.

With them out of the mix, I'd have thought a skew towards North Kerry candidates was much more likely.

Should Danny lose his seat, I could also see that favouring an additional North Kerry seat, but it wouldn't guarantee it.
 

MOSS1

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That's the current split, but surely it's caused by the strong Healy-Rae support across the constituency.

With them out of the mix, I'd have thought a skew towards North Kerry candidates was much more likely.

Should Danny lose his seat, I could also see that favouring an additional North Kerry seat, but it wouldn't guarantee it.
There was a slightly bigger population in the old Kerry South. When they last featured as two three seaters there was also a small part of west Limerick in with Kerry North. Brendan Griffin is also very close to the old boundary.

Killarney is a real problem area for the main two parties. It's never been a FG stronghold while the FF vote has departed enmasse to the Healy Rae camp. The town currently has no TD and with the Raes hoovering up there it's likely to stay that way. Tralee though will surely have a seat most likely Pa Daly
 

locke

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There was a slightly bigger population in the old Kerry South. When they last featured as two three seaters there was also a small part of west Limerick in with Kerry North. Brendan Griffin is also very close to the old boundary.

Killarney is a real problem area for the main two parties. It's never been a FG stronghold while the FF vote has departed enmasse to the Healy Rae camp. The town currently has no TD and with the Raes hoovering up there it's likely to stay that way. Tralee though will surely have a seat most likely Pa Daly
I suppose my thinking was that it wouldn't be a tremendous jump for someone from Corca Dhuibhne, which was in the old South Kerry, to vote for (or at least transfer to) someone from Tralee. There are more economic, social and transport ties between that area and Tralee than there are to the areas of South Kerry with which they were associated. Only maybe some votes around the Castleisland area would have been tempted the other way. However, I will admit I completely forgot that Kerry North included parts of Limerick!
 

Bea C

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Does anyone know anything about Green intentions re the constituency?
Will they bother?
 


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